THREE IN ONE

The possible partition of Iraq no longer seems implausible. This subject has often surfaced in the recent period, and it seems that people are getting used to it.

For example, Edward Joseph and Michael O'Hanlon of the International Research Centre of Washington's John Hopkins University and Brookings University have submitted a report, proposing a so-called "soft partition" of this Middle Eastern country. As a result of this partition, Iraq will remain on the political map of the world, but will be divided into three large regions each of which will have its own government and defence forces.

"It does not matter whether you like the idea of a soft partition or not (most of us are not delighted with this idea, and of course, this is not the only option for tackling the Iraq problem), it is already happening. About 100,000 people lose their housing every month. Society is splitting up on ethnic grounds. In some way, Iraq is turning into Bosnia. It would be better if we ourselves thought how to make this process controllable without waiting for "death squadrons" and private armies to complete this partition before us," O'Hanlon said while presenting his plan in Washington.

It is proposed that Baghdad should keep its status as the capital city after the partition, though it will not be the only centre of power. Edward Joseph is sure that "the more decisions are made in Baghdad, the more influence the Shi'is will have on this process", and "it would be suicidal to insist on a centralized structure of power in Iraq today…"

Meanwhile, the American researchers also point out that the partition of Iraq might lead to an exodus of the population, though no-one should be forced to resettle. Joseph and O'Hanlon are sure that the Sunnis will probably not want to live in Iraq's Shi'i region and vice-versa. And Arabs will probably move from the Kurdish north to their own "states". However, it is not quite clear what will happen to the Turkomans whom the Kurds are ousting from the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and other areas in the north of the country. It is natural that the American scientists paid heed to neighbouring Iran as well. For example, O'Hanlon is sure that Tehran has a destructive influence on Iraq: "We should not expect gifts from them. They are fighting us (USA) with the help of their agents. They want us to be defeated there even if the price is the final destabilization of Iraq. What should we do in this case? I suppose that we should keep talking to them in order to hold them back as much as we can and to have a chance to put them in an awkward situation in front of the whole world."

We should point out that the idea proposed by Joseph and O'Hanlon is not new. Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, who has a chance of becoming state secretary, said earlier that Iraq should be divided into three autonomous regions (Kurdistan, Shi'istan and Sunnistan), but under the aegis of a central government. The senator developed his plan, which resembles the Daton agreements on Bosnia, together with Leslie Gelb, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Specifically, Biden and Gelb think that Iraq "can be preserved only with the help of decentralization, giving each ethnic-religious group - Kurds, Sunni Arab and Shi'i Arabs - the right to independent self-government, while the central government will take care of common interests."

The Washington administration is still trying to strengthen the Iraqi government and parliament, but cannot boast about any tangible results. For this reason, observers point out, the US administration has already begun to admit that Iraq is likely to split. O'Hanlon himself admits that this will be "difficult to do". But he also adds that "everyone is too tired of the civil war, ethnic cleansing and violence in order to continue defending the idea of a united Iraq. The risk of the country's partition is not lower than those entailed by the current policy."

According to experts, expenses on Iraq's controlled "soft partition" are much lower than if the current state of affairs remains in the country, i.e. if the unproductive civil war continues.

It is notable that in this situation, the US State Department favours the restoration of Iraqi provinces in order to strengthen local tribal leaders. Moreover, the head of the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, Carl Levin, who visited Iraq, called on the Nuri al-Maliki government to resign. On 22 August, White House boss George Bush said at the closing ceremony of the two-day meeting of the US, Canadian and Mexican leaders that he was disappointed in the work of the Iraqi government because it failed to establish a political dialogue in the country. "However, this is the business of the Iraqi people itself - to support or not the head of government," Bush said. On 15 September, Bush will have to "describe" to Congress the results of increasing the US military presence in Iraq. The president will rely on two reports (one from the commander of the US troops in Iraq, General Davis Petraeus, and the US ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, and the second one from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace) which will also be made public in September.

At the same time, we have to point out that criticizing the work of the Iraqi government, Bush forgets that it is really difficult to work in a situation where you can get killed or kidnapped at any moment. Recently, a group of armed people wearing uniforms of Iraqi security forces in Baghdad kidnapped a deputy minister and four businessmen from a complex of government buildings belonging to the Oil Ministry. On 14 August, Iraq saw the biggest terrorist attack during the entire US military campaign.

Four gas-tank trucks stuffed with explosives were blown up with a difference of a few minutes in three Yezidi Kurdish villages in the north of the country 120 kilometres west of Mosul. The blast wave destroyed more than 30 buildings. The number of casualties is more than 500. Yezidis are Kurds who profess a syncretic religion that combines elements of ancient Manichaean beliefs, Judaism, Nestorianism and Islam. They live in Turkey, Iran, Syria, Georgia and Armenia. The largest community of Yezidi Kurds lives in Iraq - more than 100,000. Relations between Muslims and Yezidis in the north of the country have become noticeably tense in the recent period. In April, Yezidis stoned to death a girl who had adopted Islam. The Iraqi police suspect Sunni extremists operating in regions bordering on Syria of organizing the explosions. According to the law-enforcement agencies, they were behind attacks in another city in northern Iraq - Emerli which is populated by ethnic Turkomans. In July, 105 people were killed there by the explosion of a truck stuffed with explosives. About 250 people were wounded.

Thus, it is clear that religious and ethnic strife is at full swing in Iraq. Sunni Arabs are deliberately killing Shi'i Arabs and vice-versa. Together they keep attacking coalition troops. Kurds are singing their own "tune" in the north of the country where they have long been living in a kind of state that has many signs of independence, ranging from state symbols to their own army. This is a small example of "Iraqi life".

Commenting on the expected withdrawal of the British troops from Basra in the next few months, an employee of the US Council on Foreign Relations, Stephen Biddle, said that "the pace is this city is set by rebels, and if the worst comes to the worst, they will kick the British out of the city". We should remind you that the British have lost 163 servicemen in Iraq since March 2003. American military experts also point out that militants have targeted remote provinces more often recently. They prefer keeping away from major cities where the Iraqi army and the US troops are carrying out or have recently completed anti-terrorist operations. "Extremists are leaving cities for small settlements. We have been to many of such villages, but it is like looking for a needle in a haystack," the commander of the US troops in Mosul, Stephen Twitty, told journalists.

So isn't it better to stop hanging on to the idea of an indivisible Iraq and give everyone a chance to live separately?

It is not as simple as it seems. This "trick" works if you need to calm down quarreling kids, but in this case, it is clear that no-one can give any guarantees. Several states have collapsed in the last 20 years, and at least in two cases - in Yugoslavia and the USSR - "the divorce" was accompanied by shell explosions and innocent deaths. What can we say about Iraq where there is a war on?

The neighbouring states - Saudi Arabia, Iran and especially, Turkey - will hardly be delighted with Iraq's breakup. Ankara has been extremely worried in the recent period that an independent Kurdistan has already appeared on its borders. Turkish politicians have made it clear, both directly and indirectly, that if terrorist attacks become more frequent in the country, they are ready for independent operations in Iraq regardless of whether Washington likes it or not.

At the same time, we should not forget that there is another significant fact - the basis of Sunni-Shi'i enmity in Iraq is not religion, but oil and foreign interference. If Iraq is partitioned, the Sunnis will hardly agree to remain in a territory where they will have no access to Iraqi oil as oil fields are located in the north and in the south. At the same time, Shi'is are not ready to share this land with anyone. And finally, how can the USA be sure of the reliability of the leaders of "Sunnistan", "Shi'istan" and "Kurdistan"? If they cooperate with terrorists, oil dollars will come in handy… And if they remain loyal to the USA, where is the guarantee that they will not be eliminated by much more radical politicians?

Iraq will probably have to be partitioned by the Democratic administration in the White House for which this will be a suitable chance to get the USA out of the war which is so unpopular in the USA and in the rest of the world. But no politician or expert can say for sure what the consequences of the "Iraqi-style divorce" will be like…

P.S. According to latest reports from international non-government organizations, almost one third of Iraqis - 8 million - need urgent humanitarian aid. The number of people who suffer from a lack of clean water has reached 70 per cent, whereas this figure was 50 per cent before the country's occupation in March 2003. The number of children suffering from malnutrition has increased from 15 per cent in 2003 to 30 per cent. Moreover, 92 per cent of children in Iraq do not have a chance to get proper education.