ALL AGAINST ALL

There is still a long way to go before the US presidential election, but the election race is already in full swing there. Experts generously shower predictions on the media and the results of sociological polls are lining up to capture front-page headlines. Serious verbal battles are waged on different Internet forums, while the candidates themselves are busy criticizing their political adversaries and raising funds for primaries which are expected to reveal the names of those who will fight for the White House on behalf of the Republicans and Democrats.

Figures, figures 

Interest in the most important event in US political life is bolstered by a whole number of factors. First, the incumbent US vice-president, Dick Cheney, has refused to stand in the election (which some experts say has left the Republican Party without a strong leader). Second, the most promising candidate for the Oval Office, for the first time in US history, is a woman. And finally, the squabble between the Republicans and Democrats over future US policy in Iraq is becoming increasingly acute and entangled. It is also worth noting that many observers have almost no doubt that the next US president will represent the Democratic Party.

The indications are that this is exactly what will happen. According to a sociological survey commissioned by The New-York Times and CBS News, 63 per cent of Americans believe that Hillary Clinton is likely to win the 2008 presidential election. Therefore, her chances of becoming the first woman president of the US are growing by the day. It is also curious that 53 per cent of registered Republican electors are sure of Clinton's victory. The same opinion was held by 77 per cent of those supporting the Democratic Party.

Hillary is seen by 75 per cent of Americans as a "strong leader". Her closest rival in the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, gained only 68 per cent of the votes in this nomination. At the same time, the most promising Republican candidate, Rudolph Giuliani, received 71 per cent of the votes. Also, 58 per cent of those polled believe that Clinton will do well as the commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces, while 68 per cent are confident of her diplomatic talents. However, according to The New York Times, although voters are predicting victory for the former First Lady, they trust her less than Barack Obama and Rudolph Giuliani. She is considered to be a politician who does not speak her mind, but who says what she wants people to hear from her. However, it seems that this is quite enough, especially since there will be further speaking opportunities.

As far as the popularity ratings of the Democratic and Republican parties are concerned, according to a Gallup poll, the Democrats' ratings are topped by Hillary Clinton. She is followed by Senator Barack Obama, former senator, and former US vice-presidential candidate, John Edwards and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson. The others have scored fewer than 5 per cent of the votes. The Republican Party's favourite is the former mayor of New York, Rudolph Giuliani. Next is former senator Fred Thompson, third is Senator John McCain (who was recently abandoned by several high-ranking aides after an unsuccessful fundraising campaign) and former senator Mitt Romney. Others got fewer than 3 per cent of the votes.

The US Federal election commission has also published a report on the donations presidential hopefuls have received and the amounts of expenditure. As of 30 June 2007, democrats can boast the lead, at almost $60 million. If this trend is preserved, the battle for the White House will be waged between Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani.

However, there is always room for surprises and the Senator from the State of Illinois, Barack Obama, could easily throw up a few surprises for Hillary Clinton, who is, so far, a confident frontrunner. This candidate is a relatively new and unexpected character for American voters, especially conservatives. First, the world media are actively weighing up the chances (albeit not particularly high) of a black candidate moving into the White House. Second, it would be unfair not to admire Obama's rapid ascent onto the "election stage" and his charisma. And this is the biggest concern for Clinton, who has already had to part with some of her electorate and funds to Obama. At the same time, unlike Clinton, he did not vote for the war in Iraq - the US presence in Iraq has turned into a trump card in the election campaign.

Iraqi card 

Meanwhile, the situation in this Middle Eastern country continues to be bleak. In mid-July it transpired that terrorist group al-Qaeda intended to escalate its presence in Iraq. News agencies around the world report that this conclusion was reached by the annual US National Intelligence Estimate. Explosions targeting both coalition troops and Iraqis still rock the country. The civilian population is living on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. The death toll of American servicemen killed in the Middle East is steadily rising. Critics of Washington's Iraq policy have long been describing the US presence in Iraq as "bogged down in a swamp" and there is no end in sight. This is so because a pull-out is not seen as a way out of the predicament. The Americans have not fulfilled their mission: over these years the country has not taken a single step towards democracy, not to mention security. However, the issue of the withdrawal of troops is the main bone of contention in the USA as far as Iraq is concerned. Representatives of the Democratic Party in the US Congress recently launched another unsuccessful attempt to legitimize a pull-out. It didn't work out. It is now expected that another attempt will be made in early autumn, after George Bush receives a report on how successful the new coalition tactic is. 

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are opposed to the war in the Middle East but, as mentioned earlier, Clinton's arguments are made less convincing by the fact that she once voted for the war. Against this backdrop, Obama's criticism of the White House looks more logical. He believes that the USA will not lose if it leaves Iraq. Otherwise, Washington may spend decades fighting. If need be, US soldiers from other regional countries could always intervene in future developments. Clinton shares this view, but she has her own tactic. In May, she sent an open letter to the head of the Pentagon asking if there was a pull-out plan and, if there wasn't - why. Several weeks later, in mid-July, Mrs. Clinton received an official response issued by Deputy Defense Secretary Eric Edelman. In the response, the senator was accused of no less and no more than "hostile propaganda".

"Premature public discussion of the US withdrawal from Iraq provokes hostile propaganda. Such statements enable adversaries to claim that the USA will leave their allies behind, which leads to destabilization of the situation in Iraq," the Pentagon statement said. Clinton's press service termed the Defense Department's response, "insulting and dangerous". "The Bush administration must immediately disclose plans for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. This plan will not be just another tool of political struggle, it will allow our courageous boys and girls serving their duty in Iraq to return home safely," the presidential candidate said. It is worthy of note that if Clinton wins the election she will have to take sole responsibility for the "Iraqi exit". And it is anyone's guess now what implications this may have.

The little things in life

However, it would be wrong to think that the Americans will make their decision at the polls on Iraq alone. Of course, this military operation draws much attention, but for most ordinary Americans the developments in the Middle East are extremely remote. What matters more for them are taxes, healthcare, education, the availability of housing, gas prices, etc. This is where the Republicans can have a say. There is a very simple example of that - tax collection. The Republicans believe that the state should reduce its interference in economic life to the minimum and not overburden citizens, and especially entrepreneurs, with taxes. The Democrats mainly promote different social programmes which, of course, entail tax collection. A typical middle-class Republican with a two-storey house and two cars for a family of five has told the author of this article that it is the issue of taxation that sets him against the Democrats. "I am a hard worker, so why should I share my money with someone who doesn't feel like working?" This is a reasonable question and there is nothing you can say. Also, unlike Democrats, most Republicans are supporters of the free ownership of guns and the death penalty, opponents of abortions and same-sex marriages. They can also be very religious. Thus it is clear that the differences are quite deep and it would be wrong to boil them down to Iraq alone…

It is for this reason that no-one is venturing to make predictions for 2008 at this point. As far as the results of primaries are concerned, it appears that Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani will be elected. However, Obama's campaign is also gaining momentum. Suffice it to point to the musical clip posted on YouTube glorifying the senator's virtues. The clip called "I Got a Crush … on Obama", which has already been seen by more than 2.5 million people, has caused a heated discussion.