CLOUDS OVER TEHRAN

The USA is continuing to do its utmost to isolate Iran politically and economically, which is still suspected by the world community of planning to create weapons of mass destruction.

"There is a cloud that is hanging over Iran and Iran's reputation in the international financial system right now. And that doesn't have to be there. It is brought about only because of the behaviours of this regime. And that will have practical effects," the US State Department's official spokesman, Sean McCormack, said in early July. He said that as well as working in the UN Security Council Washington was holding successful bilateral negotiations on introducing restrictions on Iran with a number of international financial institutions and European, Asian and Japanese banks. "I think that Iran was shocked that countries like China and Russia voted against it in the Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors. I think that Iran feels isolated and this isolation will increase if Tehran continues its policy of the last few months and years," the diplomat said, stressing that it was not a question of using force against the Iranian regime. McCormack also added that the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme, domestic policy and reports of Tehran's presumed support for anti-government forces in Iraq "in no way help the reputation" of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime. 

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a TV interview on 6 July that the USA is discussing with its allies possible new sanctions against Iran. A sanctions regime confirmed by the latest two UN resolutions is at present in force against Iran. This entails a total ban on supplies of nuclear and rocket components and technology and an embargo on buying weapons from Tehran. There is also a recommendation to decline new contracts to arm Iran itself. In addition, the UN Security Council has called on states to be vigilant when Iranian officials involved in nuclear projects enter their territory. At the same time, although the 60 days given to Iran ran out on 23 May and the IAEA reported that, despite the instruction of the UN Security Council, Tehran had stepped up work to enrich nuclear fuel (for example, it increased the number of centrifuges in the nuclear centre in Natanze), the Security Council has not yet received any new draft resolutions. Moreover, on 4 July the deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Javad Vaeedi, issued a warning to the UN Security Council. The official said that it was not worth the Security Council passing a new resolution on sanctions over the Iranian nuclear problem. Otherwise, this would break off cooperation between Iran and the IAEA. Iran remains convinced that its nuclear problem can be resolved only within the IAEA framework and not at the UN Security Council.

Meanwhile, according to Rice new sanctions should seriously hamper Tehran's access to sources of international finance. Noting that Washington supports a diplomatic solution to the problem, the secretary of state did not rule out the possibility of military action against Tehran either, if the latter does not give up its nuclear plans.

Although things have not got that far yet, Washington is trying to use all the remaining levers of pressure, the effectiveness of which is still disputed. At the end of June the authoritative American magazine Newsweek suggested that the escalating secret war between the USA and Iran is probably one of the causes of increased military action in Iraq. The magazine reports that US intelligence has identified the main department behind Tehran's efforts to supply Shi'ite insurgent groups in Iraq. It is the top secret Department 9000, part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, an elite military section in the Iranian armed forces. It acts as a link between the insurgents and the Revolutionary Guards, giving leadership and support. It is also claimed that recently this militarized subdivision began even to help Sunni insurgent groups so that the Americans get stuck in Iraq. It also recalls a recent secret instruction by Bush allowing the special services to use covert methods to attack but not overthrow the Iranian theocratic regime. The CIA plan includes various propaganda broadcasts, the publication of negative articles in the media and manipulation of the Iranian currency. 

Many experts think that the world powers are trying not only to solve the crisis around the Iranian nuclear programme, but to use it to achieve their geopolitical goals. The whole world watched with interest to see how the USA would respond to Russia's offer of joint use of the Qabala radar station in Azerbaijan instead of placing American anti-missile defence systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. Washington is convinced that the missile shield in these countries will help to protect them from possible Iranian aggression. Moscow, for its part, thinks that the Iranian threat is over-exaggerated and used as a pretext to get as close as possible to Russia. During Vladimir Putin's meeting with George Bush in Maine, the Russian president also suggested adding a radar station under construction in southern Russia to Qabala. The White House has, nonetheless, decided not to give up on placing parts of a missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic. This means that tension in American-Russian relations will probably grow and this will certainly have an affect on the Iranian problem. The less Washington and Moscow can agree, the more this benefits Tehran. For his part, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to show a stoic calm. For example, at the beginning of July he made a speech during a broadcast of the first Iranian English-language channel, Press TV. The aim of the channel was declared to be presenting to the world credible information, the struggle for the freedom of Muslims the world over and opposition to Western influence.

However, Ahmadinejad clearly has food for thought, as reports from international news agencies show. At the end of June an acute petrol crisis broke out in the country with the largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. They began to ration petrol which not surprisingly caused popular discontent. Private car owners in Iran showed their extreme displeasure at the state's introduction of a limit of 100 litres of petrol per month. After the news was announced on national TV, huge queues formed at petrol stations. Ordinary Iranians had just three hours to stock up on fuel. As a result, 12 petrol stations were burnt out and stoned. A group of several hundred drivers tried to drive up to the Energy Ministry building, but the police blocked the road. The official authorities said that "destructive elements" had organized the unrest. One can only guess  these "destructive elements" might do next time something upsets them. 

The oil refining industry is not well developed in Iran and more than 40 per cent of its petrol is imported, mainly from Persian Gulf neighbours Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In 2005 Tehran spent four billion dollars on petrol and diesel. Domestic petrol prices are subsidized and a litre of the best quality fuel costs just 11 cents. A smuggling boom was the result - fuel was taken out for sale in neighbouring countries. Judging from the evidence of people coming from Iran, this is just one of Iran's significant internal problems. There is no doubt that Washington is making every effort to exacerbate them. 

The apparent calm around the Iranian nuclear problem is, therefore, illusory. The situation is actually developing apace and is bound to lead to a denouement.