THE PLEA "THEY ARE ATTACKING US!" WAS IN VAIN

Despite the recent exacerbation of the situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone, the Russian Defence Ministry is not planning to send any additional peacekeeping forces there," the deputy commander of ground troops, Vladimir Moltenskiy, said in an interview with the Russian newspaper Gazeta. What is happening in South Ossetia are "events of a domestic nature, probably provoked by someone", he said. "There is no need to increase the military potential there," Moltenskiy stressed.

This statement came as a surprise to many. Indeed, in the recent period, Russian news agencies have been inundated with dramatic reports about "strikes on Tskhinvali", "a water blockade" and so on, while the assistant to the commander of the combined peacekeeping force in the conflict zone, Yuriy Vereshchak, said that the situation in the unrecognized republic was "close to catastrophic".

Meanwhile, even a quick analysis leaves one in no doubt: the situation got out of hand after Eduard Kokoyty's team decided to prevent the construction of a bypass road between the Georgian villages of Avnevi and Nikozi. These villages form an enclave in South Ossetian-controlled territory, which is why the Georgian authorities decided to build a 20km road. For their part, the South Ossetian separatists did not like this idea and immediately enlisted weighty support from the Russian peacekeepers. "The construction of the road can continue only after authorized representatives of the Georgian and South Ossetian sides reach agreement," the commander of the combined peacekeeping force in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone, Marat Kulakhmetov, told journalists.

Either way, according to the administration of the Shida Kartli region, about 10 of the peacekeepers' armoured vehicles soon blocked movements of the road-engineering equipment. About 400 local residents tried to oust the peacekeepers from the construction site. "The situation is extremely tense. There are OSCE military observers at the site of the incident," the administration of the Shida Kartli region said.

By the following morning, news agencies again started churning out reports that the situation had been defused. However, representatives of Eduard Kokoyty's team immediately started bombarding the Russian public with reports of "some Georgians" who had "poured petrol on a  Russian peacekeepers' post" and about strikes on villages of South Ossetia and its "capital", Tskhinvali. Kokoyty himself rushed to Moscow and told journalists that he arrived there "for talks at the Russian Foreign Ministry to discuss the situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone". Then he tried to present his journey as having been planned in advance. "It was planned earlier that, at the Russian Foreign Ministry, we would discuss preparations for festivities to mark the 15th anniversary of the beginning of Russian peacekeeping operation in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone. But we will have to discuss the difficult situation which the Georgian side is deliberately fomenting," Kokoyty complained.

However, observers reasonably believe that it is precisely Eduard Kokoyty's team that is "playing to exacerbate" the situation in the conflict zone. Kokoyty is using well-known tactics: first provoke a conflict and then appeal to more powerful allies, pleading for help and shouting "They are attacking us!" Experts recall that after the scandalous "referendum" and his own "re-election", the "president" is clearly concerned about the appearance in South Ossetia of an "alternative government" led by Sanakoyev. Since Kokoyty and his supporters are not able to get "electoral support", and they clearly realize this, they are simply trying to provoke Russia into armed intervention in order solve all their problems once and for all.

Moltenskiy's statement shows that not everyone in Moscow is ready to rush to defend Eduard Kokoyty's interests. This immediately affected the situation surrounding the same "water conflict". It must be remembered that South Ossetian separatists cut off water to a number of Georgian villages. In response, Georgian peasants blocked a road leading to Tskhinvali and held an improvised funeral wake for South Ossetian president Eduard Kokoyty. However, the separatists soon had to make way again. Dzhambolat Kozayev, "the minister of agriculture and food" of the unrecognized republic, said that South Ossetia has decided to return water supplies to residents of the border villages.

Nonetheless, Kokoyty's supporters still hope to provoke Russia into interference (especially against the background of high hopes of following the "Kosovo precedent") and continue to bombard the public with reports about "strikes" and so on. But apart from Moltenskiy's statement and quite a relaxed media response to what is going on, they have not managed to get Russia to be as "active" as they want. This clearly makes Kokoyty and his supporters nervous.

Indeed many analysts think that Kokoyty, once a valuable ally for Russia and a reliable means of pressurising Georgia, has become "a hot potato" which the Russians do not want to throw away, but nor can they hold onto it. Against the background of the current development of relations between Georgia and Western countries, especially the USA, it is of no benefit to try to use the South Ossetian separatists to pressurise Tbilisi: Russia has been severely criticized at international forums for bending the rules in Georgia anyway. If Moscow does not stop supporting South Ossetia, it will not be able to normalize relations with Georgia. Besides which, according to some in the media, the Russian Prosecutor's Office has already launched an investigation: Quite a large amount of money which Russia allocated for the construction of a road has disappeared in South Ossetia. This is quite a remarkable event - in the past Moscow has preferred to turn a blind eye to the "artistry" of such regimes.

What's more, Moscow cannot ignore Dmitriy Sanakoyev, the head of the temporary administration of South Ossetia. He was supported by no less than half the voters, according to official information. At his news conference in Batumi, Sanakoyev called on the European Union to take a more active part in the settlement of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict and said that the key to a settlement of the crisis "is not only in Moscow, but also in Europe". As was to be expected, Eduard Kokoyty said that contacts with Sanakoyev were impossible and accused the Georgian authorities of unwillingness to solve the conflict by negotiation. However, Moscow cannot but understand that in South Ossetia itself, Sanakoyev also has his supporters. Of course, Moscow is still far from making a U-turn in its policy on South Ossetia, but it is clear that Russia is now far more careful and measured than before.