CHANCELLOR, PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER

The names of the new leaders of France, Germany and Britain - the leading countries of the European Union - have emerged in the recent period. If in principle everything is clear about the priorities of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the future deeds of French President Nicolas Sarkozy are still the cause of speculation and assumption. The same situation exists with regard to Gordon Brown - Tony Blair's successor to the post of British prime minister.

In any case, it was France that drew most attention in the middle of June, as elections to the lower chamber of parliament - the National Assembly - were held there after the presidential polls. As was expected, the results of the elections were no surprise, with victory for Nicolas Sarkozy's party - the Union for a People's Movement (UPM). It gained the absolute majority of seats in the parliament - 314 of the 577. The main opposition to the right-wing UPM - the Socialist Party - gained 185 seats. Twenty-two seats were gained by candidates supported by the UPM, while "various right-wing candidates" gained nine more seats. The Communist Party gained 15 mandates, left-wing radicals - seven, the greens - four, and the centrist-democrats - only three. Thus, Sarkozy failed to gain the expected two thirds in the National Assembly, but ensured the absolute majority required to conduct planned reforms.

Of course, the country did not even have time to take a break. At the same time, everyone understood that the parliamentary elections would be some sort of continuation of the presidential elections and would retain the same indicators. Society's mood cannot drastically change in such a short time, i.e. Sarkozy's victory was a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, apart from the presidential party, all observers noted the good showing by the Socialists. Now it is expected that they will increase their political influence. The former presidential candidate, Segolene Royal, who lost only by only a few percentage points to the incumbent president, still has quite a strong position. Besides, if Sarkozy's party starts making mistakes or takes steps that cause mass protests in society, the Socialists will be able to make up ground if they take the right approach. It is clear that now the Socialist Party will not be able to avoid the internal reforms which have been much discussed in the recent period. In any case, Royal has already started, announcing her divorce from the man who was her husband and, at the same time, the leader of the Socialist Party, Francois Hollande. He is likely to be ousted not only from her personal life, but also from the post of chairman of the Socialist Party. On this issue the would-be president sees eye-to-eye with the so-called young generation of Socialists who want to get rid of the burden of the past which has drawn them into a maelstrom of political setbacks.

As for the Union for a People's Movement which won the elections, this party will support Nicolas Sarkozy's intention to "become a president for all French people". We can already say for sure that France's new policy is Euro-Atlantic, although we cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that Sarkozy's extremely loyal attitude to Washington makes many citizens of the Fifth Republic slightly apprehensive. With a certain disposition of forces and mistakes by the French president, this could always be seen as, if not a betrayal of the country's national interests, then at least some deviation from them.

In any case, Sarkozy, who does not shirk conflict, is absolutely different from Jacques Chirac. The new president's slogan "Work more - earn more" is worth much in itself. It is not in vain that Sarkozy's political style is often compared to that of Margaret Thatcher, who was called "the iron lady" for her ability always to swim against the tide if necessary. It is already clear that France's ruling party will have a difficult job to do. People are pinning great hopes on it and will expect tangible results and will point out its slightest mistakes. The main catalyst of all changes in the country's life will remain Nicolas Sarkozy, of course.

We can say that there is a similar situation in Britain, which is getting used to Gordon Brown. It is presumed that Brown will be able to keep a tight rein on the economy of Foggy Albion in conditions of an accelerating process of globalization. Moreover, he will have to build on the unquestionable success of London's policy with regard to Northern Ireland. The leader of the Labourist Party, Gordon Brown, is one of the main ideological inspirers of "neo-labourism". He has already said that he is planning to modernize his party by involving young people. He is also seen as a follower of Margaret Thatcher's economic policy and enjoys great trust in business circles. At the same time, Gordon Brown, just like Sarkozy, has more sympathy for the USA, especially the American economic model. Like the French president, he has an irresistible aspiration to carry out reforms.

Thus, it is clear that Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown will have to shoulder the main responsibility for the future of the European Union. This implies a wide range of problems - structural reforms in the organization, the issue of its future expansion, the future of the European Constitution, relations with new members of a united Europe, problems with immigrants, energy security, as well as global threats such as climate change and international terrorism. At the same time, Europe will have to confront the growing power of Asian countries. In any case, despite Sarkozy's and Brown's loyalty to the White House, the traditional disagreements between European capitals and Washington should not be discounted at all. It is also clear that the three leaders' positions cannot be the same on all issues. For example, if Sarkozy has quite a gloomy attitude to the prospect of Turkey's accession to the EU, Angela Merkel is more careful with her statements.

It is also absolutely clear that Britain, France and Germany do not aspire to a rapprochement that might totally dissolve themselves into each other in the future in order to create a "United States of Europe". This is impossible, and no common interests are capable of changing this. As Tony Blair said (we believe that Gordon Brown has the same opinion), London will never accept "something that might influence its foreign policy or will diminish the role of the Foreign Office to a greater or lesser extent". Meanwhile, a member of the European Parliament from France, Alain Lamassoure, said that Britain and France have similar views on many issues concerning the adoption of the common European document. "We count on greater cooperation in the foreign policy sphere. But we are not going to replace our national interests with common European ones. What does Europe need a foreign minister for? But of course, we need an authority that would have more influence than Javier Solana," Lamassoure said.

It is also clear that the arrival of new leaders in Germany, France and Britain will make new corrections to the European Union's relations with Russia. First of all, this will happen in issues related to energy security and human rights. In the recent period, EU countries and Russia have had more conflicts about determining the future status of the Serbian province of Kosovo. For example, Sarkozy is sure that the region will inevitably be granted independence, while Moscow has already let it be known that it will veto this issue at the UN Security Council.

As for the attitude of the new European leaders towards Azerbaijan, most experts believe that it will not undergo serious change. Baku is an important economic partner of the EU in the Caucasus. Moreover, Azerbaijan is playing a key role in the diversification of energy supplies to Europe and has an important strategic position as a country that borders on Iran and Russia. European countries also maintain relations with Baku through the European Neighbourhood Policy which Azerbaijan joined in 2004.

Thus, we can say that at this stage, that Europe has a real chance to make a breakthrough and become a strong geopolitical entity.

Incidentally, against this background, the results of a recent opinion poll conducted by the Bertelsmann Stiftung Foundation in 14 states of the European Union in May and June 2007 look quite interesting.

It turned out that most EU citizens think that a small group of leading states should set the pace in the EU. What is more, Angela Merkel is most popular among Europeans. The second most popular politician is the current chairman of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso. Twenty per cent are ready to entrust to him the leading role in the EU. The third leader is Sarkozy (15 per cent) who is followed by Gordon Brown (14 per cent). So the trends are clear.