DIFFICULT CHOICE

While dealing with its complicated domestic political problems, Turkey has the no less difficult dilemma of deciding whether to invade Northern Iraq. Ankara is concentrating an increasing amount of military hardware and troops in the south-eastern provinces bordering on Iraq.  Calls for the speediest invasion, as the only way of "wiping out" the terrorist cell of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), alternate with demands for the exploration of "cautious, diplomatic avenues". However, the opinions of the Erdogan government and the General Staff, which enjoys tremendous popular support, do not coincide, to put it mildly.

Given its multi-ethnic nature, and its ability to impact upon the national interests of Turkey, Northern Iraq has been the focus of attention for political circles in Ankara since the early 20th century.

The overthrowing of Saddam Hussein has bolstered centrifugal forces in Iraq and created a permanent headache for Ankara's foreign policy in the form of Kurdish autonomy. As a result, attempts are being made to establish an independent Kurdish state in the areas bordering Turkey. Kurdish leaders have become considerably more active, making harsh statements about Ankara. There have been frequent armed attacks on Turkish checkpoints in provinces bordering on Iraq and beyond. Terrorists have stepped up their activity in major residential areas of Turkey. For instance, an act of terror perpetrated by a suicide bomber in an Ankara shopping mall claimed six innocent lives and injured about 100. Attempts to commit acts of terror in Istanbul, Izmir and Ceyhan have also become more frequent. The last straw for Ankara was the "harsh treatment" of Turkish servicemen in the Iraqi town of Suleymanie, where armed Iraqi Kurds (Peshmerge) responded with the threat of force during document checks. It would appear that a military operation on the other side of the Iraqi border is inevitable. However, there are quite a few arguments against such an operation, and these arguments are also perfectly justified. As if this wasn't enough, the domestic political situation is also quite tense, as the country is in the run-up to early parliamentary and presidential elections.

Government responds to servicemen's alarm with "understanding and inaction"

The need for a military operation in the north of Iraq was first openly raised by the chief of the Turkish General Staff, Yasar Buyukanit, in a statement issued on 12 April. His remark proved the seriousness of the Turkish General Staff's intentions, and caused concern both in Baghdad and in the USA.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, said that if necessary parliament would consent to a military operation in Northern Iraq. However, things did not go any further because Ankara faced stiff "diplomatic resistance" - opposition from the USA. Ankara chose to take a position of wait-and-see, confining itself to harshly-worded statements about Baghdad and Washington.

All this triggered a barrage of criticism. The Turkish General Staff issued a series of statements expressing clear accusations against a government which was reluctant to give the go-ahead to a military operation. Support for the military administration was expressed by the opposition, which is trying to make gains in the run-up to the next parliamentary election on 22 July.

In response, Erdogan told NTV that a decision on a military operation could be made only if diplomatic efforts have collapsed. "The decision will be made only when there is an appropriate moment. Any haste in such issues could have bitter implications," the Turkish prime minister said.

It wasn't long before the General Staff issued its counter-argument. "A decision on counter-terrorist operations on the other side of the border depends on the political will of the Turkish administration. If we receive the sanction of the parliament, we will enter Northern Iraq and tackle the terrorists although, in addition to the terrorists, there are also Barzani's forces and those of the Coalition to be reckoned with on these territories," the Turkish chief of General Staff said. The tone of Buyukanit's rhetoric is becoming increasingly stern by the day and the government is finding it ever more difficult to contain public outrage. Parliamentary elections are not too far away and the opposition media are doing everything in their power to lower the popularity ratings of the ruling party. The Iraqi theme has become particularly popular in Turkey's anti-government circles.

Ankara urged not to take theb ull by the horns

The statements by politicians and the Turkish top brass, combined with the concentration of military hardware and troops in the areas bordering on Iraq, has caused major discontent in the USA, which is already finding it difficult to keep the situation in Central and Southern Iraq under control. This has resulted in a series of statements by representatives of the Pentagon and the White House, urging Ankara to exercise restraint with regard to military operations in Iraq.

Some warnings have also issued from US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who "expressed hope that there is no military action in Northern Iraq". This was followed by US fighter jets intruding into Turkish airspace, which Turkish observers took as Washington's reminder of the "US presence in Iraq".

It must be remembered that Kurds were the only force to openly support US plans regarding Saddam Hussein's regime. It is the Kurds who still have the crucial say in the settlement of the country's most burning issues. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, an ethnic Kurd, has never described members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party as terrorists, saying that their subversive activity was a "result of Ankara's inability to resolve a domestic political problem". It is for this reason that Baghdad, encouraged by Washington and doing absolutely nothing to thwart terrorist activity in the country's north, also openly opposed Ankara's plans.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki strongly "recommended" that Turkey not resort to any military action in the region. He said his government would not tolerate the "conversion of peaceful Iraqi territories into a battle zone". "If there are problems, we should not use guns or threats because they can only exacerbate tension and deepen problems even further," al-Maliki said.

Leaders of Northern Iraq's Kurdish community have not remained on the sidelines either. For instance, influential Kurdish leader Masur Barzani condemned the intention of the Turkish military to invade Iraq. "We are opposed to the Turkish invasion of Iraq. Ankara has to know that we will not sit still and will retaliate against Turkey," Barzani said, apparently realizing that his remark would spark off a wave of outrage in Ankara.

The parliamentary election factor may prove crucial

The Justice and Development Party government headed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has, from the very outset of the Iraqi campaign, chosen a course of "passive cooperation with Washington"; this has affected Ankara's standing in the region and dealt a blow to its national interests. Turkey, which refused to allow Washington to use its territory against Iraq, did support Washington's diplomatic endeavours by recognizing the new Iraqi government, for example.

Despite statements that a decision on the possible operation against terrorists will be made without a backward glance towards Washington, it is common knowledge that an invasion in Northern Iraq against the will of the US would not bode well for Turkey. This is also understood by Erdogan's opponents who are actively using the Iraqi trump card. The point is that the next parliamentary elections and, consequently, the possible "end of political domination" for the Justice and Development Party are less than a month away. On 22 July Turkey will see an early parliamentary election.

Under the circumstances, when servicemen are falling victim to the attacks and shootings by terrorists in the areas bordering Iraq, and the General Staff places responsibility for a possible invasion in the hands of the government, Erdogan is losing his popularity. This is confirmed by sociological surveys. The Turks are traditionally noted for their patriotism and the current prime minister will have to take "unusual political steps" to come out of the situation with minimum losses.

Pundits in Ankara do not rule out the possibility that the numerous media statements urging the government to invade Iraq are guided by the opposition's desire to expose Erdogan's passive stance in the fight against Kurdish terrorists who are "killing peaceful Turks every day".

Due to the current pre-election situation, Erdogan does not venture to publicly oppose a military operation. However, the media close to him have used the services of likeminded political experts to support the government's course and to "explain" to the public what consequences Turkey may have to deal with if it launches a military operation.

The situation, however, does not change dramatically. The reason for this is the consistent campaign of Iraq's Kurds to create an independent state. Not without the support from the USA, EU and Israel, the Kurds have already taken palpable steps towards establishing an independent state which, beyond doubt, will pose a threat to the territorial integrity of Turkey.

At the same time, even the opposition acknowledge that the chances of invasion are rather slim. Terrorists may simply retreat into Iraq and then, despite the strength of the Turkish army, the plans for a quick success will collapse. The operation, vehemently opposed by the USA, Baghdad and the Kurdish autonomy, would open up the "northern front" which, in addition to all the other problems, could cost Ankara billions of dollars.

Opponents of the invasion also fear that if the military operation in the north of Iraq does not yield fruit, or fails altogether, the territorial integrity of Turkey proper will be brought into question.

For instance, political analyst Sadik Arslan believes that at present, instead of aggravating strategic relations with Washington, it is necessary to refrain from any operations and to conduct only targeted operations on borderline territories. The analyst is sure that it would be wrong to test Turkey's military power in Iraq because the invasion will also be opposed by the Arab world. Therefore, diplomatic avenues have to be explored to the fullest extent.

Similar comments are extensively circulated by newspapers supporting the position of the ruling party and the government as a whole.

Whether the government will succeed in avoiding the military operation or will have to open the second front in addition to the election campaigning will depend on many circumstances, both in and outside the country. So far it appears that unless something extraordinary happens, there will be no invasion of Iraq.