IF IRAN STOCKPILES URANIUM...

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said in mid-May that the international community is too late; Iran has already tackled all the technical problems and "pretty much has the knowledge about how to enrich uranium". "From now, it's simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact," the IAEA chief said in an interview with The New York Times. He added that the main objective now is to prevent Tehran from producing fuel in industrial quantities. If this happens, then it will be practically impossible to control the non-proliferation regime and the creation of an atomic bomb will be just a matter of time.

ElBaradei reached this conclusion after IAEA experts presented a report on their inspection of the Islamic Republic of Iran's main nuclear centre in Natanz, 80 km from the town of Kashan. In 2004 all the facilities to do with the production of nuclear energy there were moved deep underground and covered with especially hard cement. Experts think that Iran may already have 3,000 centrifuges this month, which is enough to produce nuclear material for one warhead a year. By the end of the year the country may have another 5,000 centrifuges. At present Iran's reactor fuel is enriched to only 5 per cent purity. However, if Iran acquires uranium and puts it through its centrifuges for four to five months, it could enrich it up to 90 per cent purity, the required level for nuclear weapons (The New York Times). The Iranian leadership has many times stated its intention to increase the number of centrifuges to 50,000 and then the country really would no longer depend on supplies of nuclear fuel from abroad.

Numerous predictions and statements were made about Iran after it clearly declared its ambition to become a nuclear power. On 9 April Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad announced in a ceremony at Natanz that his country had reached the industrial level of uranium enrichment. A number of Western experts and politicians said at the time that the Iranian president's remarks were just a propaganda move to boost his standing inside the country. Now the latest statement by the IAEA chief radically changes the situation. He has practically acknowledged the failure of Western diplomacy. They have not managed to convince Tehran to give up uranium enrichment. 

The conclusions presented by ElBaradei will probably make the West's actions towards Iran even harsher. John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the UN and a close friend of Dick Cheney, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph that economic sanctions "with pain" should now be imposed on Iran and, if they produce no result, military action. "It's been conclusively proven Iran is not going to be talked out of its nuclear programme. So to stop them from doing it, we have to massively increase the pressure. If we can't get enough other countries to come along with us to do that, then we've got to go with regime change by bolstering opposition groups and the like, because that's the circumstance most likely for an Iranian government to decide that it's safer not to pursue nuclear weapons than to continue to do so. And if all else fails, if the choice is between a nuclear-capable Iran and the use of force, then I think we need to look at the use of force… Imagine what it would be like with a nuclear Iran. Imagine the influence Iran could have over the entire region. It's already pushing its influence in Iraq through the financing of terrorist groups like Hamas and Hizbollah."

Analysts say that his opinions are shared by a number of senior White House officials, so it is worth listening to him. Iran's chances of fulfilling its long-cherished dream to become a regional leader would be significantly improved if it had a nuclear bomb. As well as weapons of mass destruction, Iran also has very rich energy resources, a battle-ready army and significant population resources. Although this may sound paradoxical, Iran's plans for the Middle East increased significantly after the USA overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein, Tehran's main opponent. The current chaos in Iraq is considerably helping Iran in its conflict with the international community. The West now has a realistic fear that Iran's ambitions could draw other Middle Eastern countries into a nuclear arms race. Understandably, this scenario is completely unacceptable in a region where terrorist groups throw their weight around in at least three states.

There will be a new spiral in tension around the Islamic Republic of Iran this summer. US Deputy Secretary of State Nicholas Burns said in an interview with The New York Times that if Iran does not agree to stop nuclear activity by the June G8 summit, the USA will insist on the imposition of new sanctions.

The 60-day deadline set by the UN Security Council for Tehran to meet the clauses of March Resolution No 1747, which included a moratorium on work to enrich uranium, expired on 23 May. Several days before this, in the person of the official representative of the Iranian government, Gholam-Hossein Elham, Tehran informed the international community that it was "not in the least concerned" at the possibility of the Security Council passing another resolution. The sanctions imposed in March envisaged an embargo on arms supplies from Iran and a call for heavy weapons not to be supplied to Tehran. The accounts were frozen of 13 companies and 15 individuals involved in nuclear and rocket programmes. The sanctions did not apply to earlier contracts that did not break the non-proliferation regime. 

On the eve of the IAEA's report to the Security Council, Ahmadinejad himself went to Belarus. This was a successful choice of destination as Minsk is also a kind of international pariah and has experienced economic sanctions. Of course, the conversation between the two leaders often touched on the concept of a multi-polar world. "I am convinced that Iran, with its extremely rich history and culture and extremely powerful economic potential is capable of becoming a considerable centre of influence in the international community," Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said. None of this is bad, of course, except for one "but": the international community is concerned that Iran intends to become a "considerable centre of influence" by creating weapons of mass destruction.

In the light of this it is all the more intriguing that a recent article in The New York Times analysing the situation in Iran said almost in passing that miscalculations, equipment failure or sabotage could seriously hamper Tehran in its success in nuclear technology. Military action would not even be needed. Far from everyone in the Islamic Republic shares the views of their government. Recently I was part of a group canvassing foreigners' opinions on Baku's Walled City. We spoke to a group of tourists from Iran who had left their country for the first time and were clearly intoxicated by the freedom around them. Through the one member of the group who spoke English they vied with one another to say how good it is when you are not surrounded by compulsory restrictions in practically all areas of life. "Maybe 10 per cent of the entire population of Iran actually support the actions of our government. Everyone else leads a double life and just wants change. They don't have much interest in Tehran's achievements in nuclear energy or weapons," we were assured by Masud, who works as an optician at home. Of course, the opinion of four tourists on the streets of Baku cannot be taken as representative of the opinion of the majority of residents of Iran. But it does show that citizens of this country do have this attitude towards Ahmadinejad. Therefore, talk of a fifth column in Iran is not without foundation.

So, summer is promising to be hot - the crisis around Iran's nuclear programme will probably continue to gather pace. Compared with last year, the situation has certainly become much more explosive. Talking about Iran, the tense situation in a number of other Middle East countries should not be forgotten, above all in Iraq. For example, the British newspaper The Guardian, citing unnamed senior US officials, reported that Iran is drawing up a secret plan for a major summer offensive in neighbouring Iraq, the aim of which is to force the withdrawal of American and British troops from the occupied country. According to the publication, as well as pro-Iranian Shia formations, units of the Iraqi branch of Al Qaeda, Sunni Arab detachments and even Kurdish groups could take part in the attacks on US and British troops stationed in Iraq. Syria is a co-conspirator. Information is also presented that Tehran is supporting the Taleban in Afghanistan.

According to ABC News, which quoted sources in the American special services, the CIA has received secret approval from George Bush to conduct a covert operation to destabilize the Iranian government. The plan is thought to include a disinformation campaign amongst the population and machinations with the Iranian currency and international financial transactions. The agency's sources said that the CIA has worked on the plan for a year and it has been approved both by White House officials and senior figures in the intelligence community. It is not hard to guess that if the reports by Western media are accurate, the Middle East could soon turn into a major theatre of war. The spring of different forces and interests in the region is getting tighter and tighter and the time must clearly come when it will snap back in the opposite direction. And the strength of this movement is of interest to Azerbaijan, which will be very close to the conflict zone. 

Even more worrying reports are coming in - the Turan news agency reported in late May that the leader of the paramilitary Iranian Fedayeen, Mohammad Abdekhodaie, had called on official Tehran to defend Iran's interests in the Caspian. The Baku bureau of the National Revival Movement of Southern Azerbaijan reported Abdekhodaie's remarks that there is no sea called the Caspian, there is a lake called Mazandaran and this belongs to Iran, which has the most powerful army in the region and is fully capable of occupying Baku and Naxcivan.