"LIBERATED" IRAQ'S FIFTH SPRING

The fifth bloody spring in Iraq is nearing its end. We can say without any exaggeration that this country is now one of the most dangerous places on earth. There are various opinions regarding the situation in Iraq, new culprits are being found with frightening regularity and "terrible secrets" and guesses are being divulged. However, this does not bring any relief. And only one thing is probably clear - the civilian population is suffering most of all in Iraq. 

The lack of food, daily terrorist attacks and the absence of normal public utilities are an everyday reality in Iraq. Against this background, all talk about the danger of a full-scale civil war or the breakup of the country seems ridiculous. Too many people, both in Iraq itself and abroad, are sure that all this happened a long time ago. In fact, there are three Iraqs at the moment - Kurdish, Shi'i and Sunni Iraq, and what is more, the population of two of them is continuing to kill each other. The situation is no better in the relatively calm north, where the Kurds who are deliberately ousting the Turkomans from their land are no longer subordinate to Baghdad. At the same time, there is stiff resistance to the US troops for whom any further stay in Iraq is pointless. But they cannot leave Iraq either.

Perhaps, this is why international experts point out that in the USA itself, there are more and more people calling for as many Middle Eastern countries as possible to be involved in the settlement of the situation. The White House is under pressure from the Democratic majority in Congress, representatives of which understand very well that they themselves will have to "deal" with the consequences of the withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq.

A conference was held in Sharm al-Sheikh in early May with the aim of discussing ways of overcoming the Iraq crisis. The meeting was attended by the foreign ministers of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, G8, states neighbouring on Iraq, as well as delegations from 60 countries and various international organizations. The efforts of such a representative forum ended in a so-called general agreement which stipulates that measures should be taken within a period of five years to achieve economic prosperity, political stability and security in Iraq. The document was signed by representatives of 63 states and 12 organizations. A decision was also made to set up a body coordinating the efforts of the parties in the Iraq direction. Moreover, the participants in the Sharm al-Sheikh meeting decided to write off the Iraqi government's debts worth 30bn dollars (Iraq's foreign debt is estimated to be from 50 to 62bn dollars, while according to the CIA, this figure is approaching 81.48bn). It is notable that the final document of the conference does not contain any demands or conditions regarding the deadline for the withdrawal of the international coalition's troops from the country. This issue was left to the government of Iraq, which proves once again that the White House had a tremendous influence on the conference. As it became known, Arab countries, as well as Iran insisted on the immediate withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq. Bu this proposal did not get any response and support.

The meeting between US State Secretary Condoleezza Rice and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu'allim on the sidelines of the conference draws special attention. Thus, Rice held negotiations with a diplomat from a country that is accused of supporting terrorists, including in Iraq. In this regard, we would like to ask a tricky question: "What made the White House take such a step if Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, was harshly criticized for visiting Syria during her tour of the Middle East?" Is the reason the critical situation in Iraq, a country that has been shaken by terrorist attacks for five years in a row? Al-Mu'allim confirmed to Rice that stability in Iraq is in Syria's interests. In any case, the media did not get hold of details of the US-Syrian meeting. As for Manuchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, he did not have a private conversation with Mrs. Rice. According to eyewitnesses, the politicians only exchanged reserved greetings, which resembled a scene from "The 12 chairs" comedy when Ippolit Matveyevich and Father Fedor decorously bowed to each other in the corridor of a rundown provincial hotel. All this ended in a brawl later.

Returning to the results of the Egyptian conference, it is worth pointing out that according to the general agreement, the Iraqi authorities undertook to come up with a number of initiatives to promote the national dialogue and reconciliation and to liquidate all forms of violence. Nevertheless, these fine-sounding agreements are still not giving real hope for stability in Iraq. Yes, the authorities of this Middle Eastern country have made important commitments, but the question is to which extent they will be able to keep their promises. Militants have not reached any agreement with anyone, and there is no doubt that terrorist attacks in the streets of Iraqi cities will continue. For example, the building of Radio Euphrates was set ablaze in early May. In the opinion of the country's Presidential Council, the terrorists attack the local media in order to deprive the country's population of reliable information about domestic and international events. On 6 May, six American servicemen and Russian photojournalist Dmitriy Chebotayev were killed by a land mine in the province of Diyala north-east of Baghdad. Responsibility for the terrorist attack was claimed by the "Islamic State of Iraq" group which is closely related to the international terrorist network Al-Qaeda. This list can go on and on. The number of Iraqi civilians killed in the war is not known to anyone - different sources provide absolutely different figures. One thing is clear - too many people have died, including women and children. For this people, liberation from dictator Saddam Huseyn ended in a real massacre. A great number of Iraqis have fallen victim to religious confrontation. The leader of the Mahdi Army, Muqtada as-Sadr, is regarded as being especially brutal. His militants make regular raids on Sunni-populated areas. There are also suspicions that As-Sadr is waiting for the Americans to leave the country in order to seize power in Baghdad. Strange as it may seem, the Shi'is who were oppressed under Huseyn did not become obedient and thankful to those who liberated them from him. More and more authoritative foreign media are saying that over the years of the US presence in Iraq, this country has turned into a base of international terrorism where you can hide, collect weapons, and most importantly, gain experience. For example, the British newspaper Times writes that the US military presence promotes terrorism and prevents reconciliation between the Sunnis, Shi'is and Kurds in Iraq. In this regard, the results of a poll conducted among US servicemen in Iraq look quite notable: more than 72 per cent of them are sure that Washington should withdraw from Iraq within a year.

Meanwhile, the so-called "Iraq syndrome" is spreading in the USA itself. According to the results of a major survey carried out by US army doctors from August to October last year, many soldiers fighting in Iraq are having psychological and moral deviations. The doctors sent the results of the survey to the Pentagon several months ago, but they were made public only recently, because some information from the report was leaked to the media. About 10 per cent of US servicemen confessed that they had brutally treated Iraqi civilians or destroyed their property even when there was no need for that. Only 47 per cent of army servicemen and 38 per cent of marines think that the civilian population should be respected. 44 per cent of marines and 41 per cent of army servicemen think it acceptable to use torture to extract information that will allow them to save the lives of their fellow soldiers. About 20 per cent of army servicemen and 15 per cent of marines stationed in Iraq have shown symptoms of acute stress, depression and fear, whereas less than half of the respondents expressed their readiness to inform their commander if any of their fellow soldiers kills or maims an Iraqi civilian. According to the acting surgeon-general of the army, Maj-Gen Gale Pollock, a high degree of anger is noticed mainly in soldiers who participated in serious fighting and saw their friends getting killed and wounded. We can assume that these people will show a high degree of aggressiveness outside the army as well. There are about 145,000 US troops in Iraq at the moment, however, there will be a reinforcement of 15,000 in early June.

Thus, the White House administration is not planning to withdraw its troops and is even increasing their numbers. On 1 May, George Bush vetoed a bill proposed by the Democrats which linked the allocation of 100bn dollars for military operations in Iraq in the current financial year to the deadline for the withdrawal of all army units from there. In the president's opinion, "to establish a deadline for the withdrawal of the troops is tantamount to naming the date for defeat". The Democrats needed two thirds of all votes to overcome the veto (no less than 290 congressmen). However, only 222 congressmen voted for the bill, while 203 voted against. Nonetheless, Nancy Pelosi said that she and her party colleagues will try to end the war in Iraq and that George Bush "was deaf to the wishes of the American people". In any case, analysts have already expressed confidence that the Democrats and the White House will reach a sort of compromise agreement that will suit both sides. Bush instructed his assistants to draw up a mutually acceptable version of the bill in cooperation with the leaders of both chambers. All this goes to show that the Democrats cannot help using such a trump card as the failed and protracted war in the Middle East against Bush. But at the same time, they are in no hurry to assume responsibility for the future of Iraq. So will Iraq have to live through a sixth bloody spring?