PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS OR CLAN DISAGREEMENTS?

The elections in Armenia have come to an end, but a detailed analysis of their results lies ahead. However, the election campaign provided really priceless information about the methods used in the struggle for power in that country. Even a quick analysis here yields depressing results.

In the run-up to the parliamentary elections in Armenia, there was a scandalous atmosphere: the Armenian authorities denied Turkish observers permission to join the mission of the European Security and Cooperation Group (AGIT). According to the press secretary of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), Urdur Gunnarsdottir, invitations were sent out to 44 countries, including Turkey, to monitor the parliamentary elections in Armenia. "The Armenian authorities denied the Turkish observers entry, however, there has been no official explanation on this issue yet," she pointed out.

Soon the acting press secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Vladimir Karapetyan, also confirmed that there will be no Turkish observers in the parliamentary elections in Armenia on 12 May. He explained the official version: "Armenia and Turkey have no diplomatic relations, which is why there will be no Turkish observers in the elections."

Such an explanation could be acceptable if it were not for the threatening growth in ultra-nationalist moods. Plus, the "party of peace" was deliberately ousted from Armenia's political life. Just before the elections, the Armenian Pan-National Movement (APNM) - a party that ruled in Armenia from 1990 to 1998 - announced its decision to drop out of the race. It was pointed out that this decision was made in view of the current political situation. The party is sure that the opposition's disunited participation in the election process will make power change impossible. The APNM pointed out that gaining seats in the future parliament is not an end in itself for them. "The party announces its withdrawal from the election process under the proportional system in order to help consolidate the opposition electorate," the party said in an official statement.

Experts maintain that the APNM did not have serious problems with registration. On 3 March, which was the deadline established by the law for parliamentary candidates to submit their applications, the APNM submitted its proportional list and a list of candidates running under the first-past-the-post system. The proportional list was headed by the chairman of the party board, Ararat Zurabyan. He was followed by the deputy chairman of the party, Aram Manukyan. All in all, the list had 70 names of which 17 per cent were women. The party also nominated seven candidates under the first-past-the-post system. The chairman of the board, Ararat Zurabyan, was also running under this system. Meanwhile, APNM chairman Ararat Zurabyan continues to express confidence that the first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, will run in the presidential elections of 2008. He thinks that several speeches by Levon Ter-Petrosyan will change the situation as a whole and create a new reality in the country, the political life of which is paralyzed. At the same time, Zurabyan is convinced that there is no need to expect Ter-Petrosyan to speak out during the parliamentary elections, and his future plans will become known in the course of time.

In any case, many analysts are sure that for the Armenian opposition, the parliamentary elections are a classical chance because if in a presidential race you have to gain an absolute majority, in a parliamentary election it is enough to gain at least several deputy seats in order to find your foot in big-time politics. If the APNM drops out of the parliamentary race, there should be more than serious reasons for that.

Of course, it also makes sense to say that the APNM soberly evaluated its chances and decided that they are unlikely to be successful, whereas its leaders have no right to run for election and lose after such a long political break.

However, analysts have already reminded us: the APNM is one of the few political forces in Armenia that can be described as a "party of peace". It was the leader of this movement who addressed his fellow citizens when he was president 10 years ago: "War or peace? It is time to think about it." Thus, he openly called for a compromise with Azerbaijan. The following events are known: a "creeping coup", the president's resignation and elections won by Robert Kocharyan.

Plus, the present-day APNM announced its decision to drop out of the race soon after one of the leading Armenian opposition figures, the ex-speaker of parliament and leader of the Orinats Yerkir Party (Law-Governed Armenia Party) ended up in the centre of a big political scandal which the media discussed under caustic headlines like "Spying scandal".

On 21 April, Golos Armenii published excerpts from the recording of a conversation between Artur Bagdasaryan and Richard Hyde, an official of the British embassy in Armenia. Bagdasaryan wondered: "Do you think that the European Union will sound any alarm before the elections?" The Briton's answer was depressing: "Don't try to persuade me, I know, but in order to make a statement like that, we need a very specific example. And try to persuade the 26 other countries to make such a statement. Only eight of these 26 are represented in Armenia. Even these eight are very difficult to persuade."

Golos Armenii did not even try to hide its outrage: "They both have a vested interest in the forthcoming elections totally discrediting Armenia. And this traitor headed our parliament and now hopes to get elected?" We should point out the following: Orinats Yerkir made it to the parliament, although they barely managed to "jump over" the five per cent barrier. 

Another thing is important. On 26 April, the British embassy in Armenia issued a statement: "The British embassy in Yerevan is concerned and disappointed in the wiretapping of the conversation between an embassy official and an opposition party leader, as well as in the publication of excerpts from its audio recording in some of the media. Together with the OSCE, the European Union, the Council of Europe, the diplomatic community and other organizations, the British embassy is interested in seeing on 12 May elections that meet international standards. In this regard, the embassy maintains wide relations and contacts with people and organizations that are active in Armenia in order to have an idea of all nuances of political opinions existing in Armenia. This allows us to have an unbiased and complete idea of the political developments in the country and is in line with the internationally-accepted practice in the work of any embassy," the document said.

However, no-one paid any attention at all to the fact that it is not acceptable to eavesdrop on diplomats. Even the country's president said while commenting on the incident: "When the recording was published in Golos Armenii newspaper, the first thing I thought of was this is impossible. I immediately instructed the security service to investigate all circumstances of the recording. I am saying with pain that everything that was published is completely true. This is true and the fact is undeniable."

Evaluating Bagdasaryan's actions, Kocharyan said: "I do not want to use legal terms, but for me this is just a sign of treason which is even more disgusting because he did it at his own initiative. At his own initiative, he was persuading a foreign diplomat to give a negative assessment to the forthcoming elections." However, Kocharyan also let it be known that it would be wrong to resort to tough action, and now let every voter himself decide what patriotism is worth and remember Karabakh and the issue of recognizing the "Armenian genocide". "If you betray once, you will betray again. This is a person's character," the Armenian president said.

However, analysts point out that the formal victory of the pro-government parties and the fact that the pro-Western opposition is in the minority do not mean that the current ruling team in Armenia can be calm and confident. The opposition took to the streets at the end of the election campaign, but its actions are quite impressive. An Orinats Yerkir rally looked quite persuasive even after the authorities' attack.

Several days ago, an even more impressive rally under the slogan "Impeachment to the president and his regime" was staged in Yerevan. It was organized by the Impeachment bloc, the New Times Party, as well as the Republic Party which said on the last day of the registration of the proportional lists of parties running for election to parliament that it was refusing to set up a bloc with opposition parties. However, this did not prevent the leader of the Republic Party, Armenia's ex-Prime Minister Aram Sarkisyan, from saying in a rally: "We will enter the parliament with one goal - to impeach the country's president and his regime and organize extraordinary presidential elections." Aram Sarkisyan also said that if the elections proceed without violations and fraud, they, i.e. the opposition, will form the majority in parliament, but "if the elections are rigged, we will gather here on the central square the next day after the elections and will go to punish the criminals".

"We will fight to the bitter end and will not turn back," the leader of the New Times Party, Aram Karapetyan, said for his part. The ardent speeches of the speakers were interrupted by people who chanted "Impeachment!".

Analysts point out that several days before the rally in Yerevan, there were discussions again that a "colour revolution" is impossible in Armenia. "In theory, colour revolutions in Armenia are possible, but in practice they are not. Surveys show that 50 per cent of people who are not happy with the outcome of the elections form their opinion on the basis of their own experience of participation in elections, 10 per cent under the influence of the political forces and parties that lost the election and another 15 per cent under the influence of observers. Thus, if you manage to hold fair and normal elections, there will be no social base that is capable of provoking destabilization," Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan said. As for individual small groups which say that the results of the elections will be rigged, the prime minister does not worry very much about it: "It is difficult for me to say what they proceed from, because the permanent OSCE mission has published two interim reports which lack even a little negative assessment of the election situation. Possible discontent from aside, say from 50 or 1,000 people, cannot be a determining factor for us. There is society and there are the law-enforcement agencies that will have to fulfill their mission." 

In turn, Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said at a meeting with students of Yerevan State University that "society does not accept aggressive manifestations and calls for "colour revolutions". This is also proved by the results of opinion polls according to which only 2 per cent of citizens think that a "colour" revolution or aggression are possible in Armenia. Society accepts a civilized struggle of programmes, not a conflict of personalities or a conflict between the government and the opposition," the head of state stressed.

However, a large rally under the slogan "President, resign!" made a strong impression on foreign observers in Armenia, also because no-one had really regarded the Impeachment bloc as a "serious" opposition force, not to mention the fact that according to all rules of political technologies, you cannot make a serious policy on the slogan "President, resign!".

However, the problem is that there might be clan disagreements behind opposition rhetoric in Yerevan, or to be more precise attempts by "Yerevan people" to close ranks against "Karabakhis". The point is that over the years of Kocharyan's presidency, almost all "commanding heights" in politics and economy have fallen into the hands of the "Karabakh clan" with which the "Yerevan people" who have always regarded the Karabakh Armenians as being "impure" are quite unhappy. But as is known, clan disagreements cannot always be solved through elections.