MAN AND WOMAN

The presidential elections took place in France on 22 April. They attracted the attention of the media and of politicians, analysts and the public in many countries, including here in Azerbaijan. That is no surprise. France is a major European power which has nuclear missile capability and is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Taking account of the fact that the country has a presidential form of rule, whoever will occupy the Elysee Palace undoubtedly has great significance for both European and world politics.

As pollsters predicted, there was a record turnout (85 per cent), but none of the 12 candidates managed to win more than half of the votes required to win in the first round. The candidate for the ruling Union for a Popular Movement party, Nicolas Sarkozy, received a little over 31 per cent of the votes, and the representative of the opposition Socialist Party, Segolene Royal, gained around 26 per cent. The leader of the centrist democrats, Francois Bayrou, finished third with 18.5 per cent. The head of the extreme right National Front, Jean-Marie Le Pen, came in fourth with 10.5 per cent. The other eight candidates received quite insignificant support. On 6 May French voters will have to go back to the polls to make their final choice. 

This unheard level of voter activity is being linked by observers not only to the intense competition between the candidates but to a change of generation in the French political elite. Previously people aged over 60 stood for president. Now, the struggle is between two main candidates, 51-year-old Nicolas Sarkozy and 53-year-old Segolene Royal. The latter is the first woman to get through to the second round of a presidential race in French history. Royal's success is at the same time a success for the Socialists, if we recall that at the last elections the candidate from this party failed shamefully, allowing the ultra-right leader Le Pen into the second round.

Segolene Royal was born in the capital of Senegal, Dakar, into the family of a general, a fervent Catholic. She received an outstanding education, graduating from the University of Nancy and then the Ecole Nationale d'Administration in Paris, from whose walls almost the whole of the country's establishment has emerged. Royal worked as adviser to President Francois Mitterrand for six years. Thanks to him, she became minister of education, then minister for family and childhood, and an MP. In 2004 Segolene Royal became the only female head of one of France's 26 regions - Poitou-Charantes. Royal did not officially get married. Her common-law husband and the father of her four children, Francois Hollande, is secretary of the Socialist Party.

Charming and with the appearance of a model, Segolene Royal looks wonderful on TV screens and posters. At rallies she does not speak very smoothly, but she speaks passionately, like a woman. This wins over voters. She has promised if she wins to increase the salaries of teachers, unemployment benefits and subsidies for the poor. She has also pledged to finance a programme to provide free contraception for women up to the age of 25. Experts think it will require an extra 30bn euros to carry out the Socialist candidate's election programme, which - considering the huge state debt - cannot be found.

Segolene Royal's unguarded statements on sensitive issues involving territorial integrity and foreign policy have aroused amazement and dissatisfaction among many French, and in many countries. Meeting the leader of the Parti Quebecois, Andre Boisclair, (in this province populated by French Canadians the question of secession has been raised several times) she said that she was "committed to such principles as the freedom and sovereignty of Quebec". The famous French parodist Gerald Dahan called Royal on her mobile phone posing as the premier of the Canadian province of Quebec, Jean Charest, and tried in the name of the supposed Canadian to explain to her that statements about the freedom of Quebec were tantamount to agreeing to the independence of Corsica from France. Royal giggled ingenuously and replied: "Well many French are not against that. Just don't tell anyone, or there will be another scandal." When this recording was played on air, a scandal erupted, damaging the image of the Socialist candidate.

The leader of the right, Nicolas Sarkozy, was born in Paris. The son of a Hungarian immigrant and a French woman, he was basically brought up by his grandfather on his mother's side (a Jew who had converted to Catholicism), since his parents soon split up. After training as a lawyer, Sarkozy made a dazzling political career. At the age of 22, he became a member of a municipal council, and soon the young mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine, a rich and prestigious suburb of Paris with a population of more than 50,000. In 1988 "Sarko", as he is often called in the French media, was elected to parliament. Then at different times he headed the Interior Ministry and the Finance Ministry. Although in the early years of his political career Sarkozy was the protege of Jacques Chirac, they later fell out. Chirac did not forgive Sarkozy his "double betrayal". Twelve years later he rejected Chirac and supported Edouard Balladur at the presidential elections. There was, however, a more prosaic reason behind their enmity. Sarkozy dated Chirac's youngest daughter, Claude, but left her and married someone else. Nevertheless, Jacques Chirac, as a great politician, rose above his personal feelings and - giving Sarkozy's qualities their due - agreed to his appointment to important posts in his government. 

A few years ago the French presidency was cut from seven to five years at Chirac's initiative. This looked totally democratic from the outside, but in fact Chirac was pursuing his own wily plans. In France, unlike in many other countries, there is no limit to re-election. If he had not cut the term, presidential elections should have taken place only in 2009, when the 77-year-old Chirac would not have been able to stand for another seven-year term. But Chirac was counting at heart on another five years as president in 2007. These plans, if they existed, were thwarted by the unrest caused by immigrants and then by mass demonstrations by students. Furthermore, Chirac's health is not all it should be. After procrastinating for a while, he officially announced that he would not be standing again and, bracing himself, supported Nicolas Sarkozy's bid.  

Sarkozy is not very tall (only 165 cm), but he makes a strong impression thanks to his energy and charisma. He has the image of a tough and pragmatic politician and an effective administrator. Sarkozy tries to respond suitably to the demands put forward by the moderate rightwing electorate, which include defending republican values, the constitution and the rule of law and French political and cultural identity against anti-system elements and radicals attacking them. Using the image of a "defender of order and the republic", he appeals at the same time to traditional centre-right supporters and to that part of the rightwing electorate which supports Le Pen and his National Front party. Sarkozy is the most pro-American politician in France and does not conceal his admiration for the dynamic political, economic and cultural life of the USA. He declares his intention to establish a closer partnership with Washington, which is not quite in line with France's Eurocentric tradition. 

The results of the first round have given the right a slight edge over the left. If votes given to rightwing and ultra-right candidates are combined and just half of centrist votes are added and counted as in Sarkozy's favour, his victory in the second round does not seem in doubt. The same result is predicted by opinion polls, which show that 54 per cent of voters are ready to support Sarkozy, while only 46 per cent are prepared to support Segolene Royal. But it is no accident that a politician is not identified by pure arithmetic but by algebra, where the sums are not so unambiguous. The fact that Sarkozy is ahead of Royal in no way guarantees him victory.

Much depends on the support of the candidates who have been knocked out of the race. All seems clear with the leftwing candidates. All of them - from Communist leader Marie-George Buffet to the other female candidates Arlette Laguiller and the leader of the Greens, Dominique Voynet - have cordially called on their supporters to support Royal and stop Sarko. However, that does not greatly increase Royal's electoral support. On the right, there is no certainty. Le Pen, who was supported by more than a tenth of French voters, has said he will announce his decision right on the eve of the vote. Neither is centrist leader Francois Bayrou rushing to show his cards. The French media says he is more inclined to support Royal. However, whether voters who cast their ballots for him in the first round will listen to him is a big question. According to polls, his share of the electorate is the one that is wavering the most and is least controlled by the party structures of the democratic centrists.

So the fight in the second round is set to be very intense and absorbing. The direct debates expected between Sarkozy and Royal will be an uncompromising battle for the votes of wavering voters. A serious failure or a successful move by one or another candidate could tip the wavering scales of political preferences. However, I will risk predicting a Sarkozy victory, though I think that the gap between him and Royal will not be as great as polls predict but will be cut to a minimum.

The question of how a change of president and the victory of one candidate or another will affect Azerbaijani-French relations is a separate one. President Jacques Chirac established close relations with Heydar Aliyev and then with Ilham Aliyev. He paid the utmost attention to the question of resolving Karabakh. In all likelihood, irrespective of who wins the elections, Azerbaijan is unlikely to be among the priorities of the new president, at least at first. Neither of the main candidates has shown a positive inclination towards the Turks, and their entourages contain influential members of the Armenian diaspora. Nevertheless, I consider that Sarkozy would be preferable for Azerbaijan as the new master of the Elysee Palace. As a tough rightwing politician who does not conceal his pro-American sympathies, he is hardly likely to be inclined towards any special relations with Moscow or close his eyes to its attempts to establish its supremacy in the post-Soviet space. The interests of large companies, especially oil companies, interested in developing business in Azerbaijan are close and comprehensible to him, and this is a basis for supporting good bilateral relations between our countries. 

Royal, like almost all Socialists (such as Germany's Gerhard Schroder) is inclined to build relations with Russia at the expense of trans-Atlantic solidarity. The facts that Royal was helped in her election campaign by the Armenian party Dashnaktsutyun and the Socialists initiated the scandalous law punishing the denial of the supposed "Armenian genocide" speak for themselves. Royal's risky views which basically encourage separatism are also grounds for caution. This is unacceptable to us, since France is co-chair of the Minsk group mediating in a settlement to the Karabakh conflict. However, all these factors should not be dramatised. France is a country with many centuries of state tradition, and however significant the personal factors and people in power, an objective interest in boosting and developing our bilateral and multilateral relations in the context of the EU will prevail.