EXTREME POLITICS

There are less than two weeks to go before the parliamentary elections in Armenia, but already the preparations can reveal to the attentive observer many interesting things. The first thing that springs to mind is the whole series of explosions and murders that have affected Armenian politicians who are standing for the country's National Assembly. Two offices belonging to the Prosperous Armenia (PA) political party were blown up on the night of 12 April. Early in the morning on the same day a second report emerged of another explosion in a Prosperous Armenia office - this time in the Yerevan area of Avan.

Political cutthroats 

Police have opened criminal cases into the incidents according to Point 1 Part 2 Article 185 (premeditated destruction or damage to property) and Part 1 Article 235 (illegally bearing, possessing or obtaining weapons and ammunition). Armenia's law-enforcement bodies are plainly not rushing to qualify the incidents as "terrorism". The president, Robert Kocheryan, immediately condemned the incident, describing it as an attempt to destabilise the situation in the country before the elections. He also ordered measures to be taken to solve the crime as soon as possible.

It is worth paying attention to the following facts. As the authoritative and well-informed newspaper Vremya Novostey noted, unlike the Republican Party of Armenia, which has existed since 1991, Prosperous Armenia only emerged a little over a year ago, but has already managed to attract over 300,000 people into its ranks. It is headed by the richest man in Armenia, the president of the Multi Group concern, Gagik Tsarukyan. He is an MP and the head of the National Olympic Committee.

Experts in Yerevan agree that it is Prosperous Armenia which will be the main competitor to the ruling Republican Party of Armenia headed by Serzh Sarkisyan in the forthcoming parliamentary elections.

The head of the Republican faction, Galust Saakyan, categorically condemned the terrorist act, describing it as "unacceptable barbarity". He said that an attempt on the life of the mayor of Gyumri, Vardan Gukasyan, and also the explosions in the offices of the Prosperous Armenia party were having a negative effect on the mood of the electorate and as  a result on the whole election process. Then Gukasyan suddenly started to justify himself: "I do not rule out that many people will be tempted to pin this incident on someone, but I repeat that members of the RPA are at a minimum on friendly terms with practically all members of the Prosperous Armenia party; moreover, we do not have any grievances against either the PA or any other political force."

He was basically admitting that it was the RPA headed by Serzh Sarkisyan which is among the prime suspects, even if no-one in Yerevan is officially voicing this theory.

As has been pointed out in our magazine, back in the 1970s, according to some reports, Serzh Sarkisyan was in the Armenian nationalist underground, which was responsible for a series of explosions in Moscow. Then he was recruited by the KGB and took part in some operations, the result of which was a certain "non-aggression pact" between the Soviet security services and the international Armenian terror network. The KGB limited itself to arresting and shooting three people who directly carried out the Moscow explosions, leaving the whole rest of the network immune, and the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia committed itself to not taking revenge over its members and cooperating with the KGB on a "mutually-advantageous basis". Later Serzh Sarkisyan took part in ethnic cleansing and organising terrorist acts against Azerbaijan during the Karabakh war. Finally, the wave of terror in Armenia in the run-up to Robert Kocheryan's rise to power is associated precisely with his name. 

It is worth noting that the explosions at the Prosperous Armenia offices are not the only precedent of this type. On 20 December last year Ronald Mkrtchyan, the head of the rural council in the village of Nalbandyan in Armavir Region and a member of the Prosperous Armenia party, was shot. On 2 April the cortege of a member of the RPA council, Vardan Gukasyan, was shot at on the 27th kilometre of the main Yerevan-Gyumri road. The mayor himself was injured, and three of the people accompanying him died. On 7 April the Prosecutor-General's Office received a report from an inhabitant of the town of Vagarshapat, Avak Kazaryan, that on that day an Armenian MP, entrepreneur Akop Akopyan, had used violence to kidnap his father, Saak Kazaryav, and promised to pay him 5,000 dollars if his son did not attend a hearing in a court of the first instance in the town of Armavir and did not give evidence against the MP.

Finally, on the night of 7-8 April two more incidents involving parliamentary candidates were recorded: a business belonging to Susanna Arutyunyan was set on fire and the car of MP and member of the Republican Party Akop Akopyan was shot at. In other words, people are blowing up, setting fire to and shooting at members of Prosperous Armenia, and the Republicans and all the others, right down to the Dashnaks. And all this because in Armenia terror and political murders are still considered a most accessible way of waging a struggle, and not a single election campaign passes without explosions and shootings.

It is superfluous to recall that this peculiarity of the election campaign is clearly not a question which can be categorised as domestic policy. Terror is, after all, not a political "virus" which can be contained within certain borders - sooner or later it spills over. Furthermore, Armenia's external terror is far older than its internal terror: terrorist acts against Azerbaijan and Turkey were organised much earlier than the first election terrorist acts were recorded in Armenia itself. This country's relations with Georgia are now, to say the least, tarnished. Apart from anything else, the election campaign also represents an important piece of political information to reflect upon: depending how far within the rules this or that party within the country fights for power, it is not hard to judge whether it will observe the rules on the international stage when it comes to power or retains its place on the political Olympus.

Fighting for an outpost 

Given the specific situation of Armenia and the "truth of the moment", the question of political responsibility for one's allies should not be forgotten. It has already been stated more than once that the current parliamentary elections could for the first time mean the emergence in Armenia of serious pro-Western feelings and that Russia is facing a serious political tussle for a vanishing outpost. The Russian journalistic "landing force" continues to work actively in Armenia, preparing report after report about the historical friendship of Russia and Armenia and the "promising policy" of Serzh Sarkisyan. 

However, political scientists and analysts, as could be expected, are much more open. This is how Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politika fund, commented on the situation on the pages of Izvestiya, for example: "Armenia is our most reliable partner in the Transcaucasus. It is the only country in the region which is not in GUAM, which is known to be a project to limit Russian influence in Eurasia. Armenia is one of Russia's most reliable allies in the whole post-Soviet area, it is at the core of the CIS, in the Eurasian Economic Community and the Collective Security Treaty. It is also a genuine partner and ally, where anti-Russian feelings have never found serious support in the public mind." "Nevertheless," Nikonov continues, "the United States, which has consolidated itself in Georgia to the maximum and is strengthening its position in Azerbaijan, is becoming a significant factor on the Armenian political scene as well." Nikonov then sets out his recommendations: "In this ever more complex situation, it is very important for Russia to see political forces in power to the south of the Caucasus which are inclined towards constructive cooperation with us. Banking on the fact that they will automatically win is a dangerous delusion. Not everything is so simple on the Armenian political scene. So how can we help Armenia? Above all, with a responsible and attentive attitude towards our partner, taking into account the concern that the Armenians are showing on the political and even everyday level. It depends on Russia to observe the rights of the Armenians living and working in Russia and prevent any discrimination based on ethnicity or citizenship, to protect their security. It is also important to resolve as soon as possible the question of investment and launching real manufacturing at enterprises which have become the property of Russian judicial entities as part of the paying off of the external debt and during privatisation."

"Measures to raise prices for natural gas aroused clear disillusion in Armenia," Nikonov recalls, and then calls for "the power of the word of Russia" not to be forgotten either. It is notable that Nikonov did not say a word about Karabakh, Turkey, "genocide", "the historical rights of the long-suffering Armenian people", and so on. It is also notable that the spectre of possible Russian support outlined by Nikonov does not go beyond that outlined by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during his visit to Armenia.

Many experts are inclined to view even the fact that Moscow investigators solved the murder of Armenian Karen Abramyan so quickly and decisively as a "political order". The media say the attack on Abramyan was carried out late in the evening of 16 April on Kedrov Street. Abramyan died in hospital the following day from multiple knife wounds.

Moscow law-enforcement bodies were quick to report that the crime had been solved. At the request of Moscow's southwest district prosecutor's office, a court ordered that Artur Ryno from Khabarovsk, born in 1989, and Pavel Skachevskiy from Moscow, also born in 1989, be held on remand. Both are skinheads, and investigations are currently under way into the involvement of the suspects in similar crimes committed in Moscow. Although the rapid reaction of the Moscow investigators can be seen as the first sign that the authorities have at last taken on the ultra-nationalists, there are no other indications of a change in policy. We should not forget that the murders of Armenian citizens and ethnic Armenians in Moscow have been and remain one of the main detonators of anti-Russian feelings in Armenia itself. To put it more simply, Moscow evidently has no intention of letting its "outpost" slip out of its hands. In mid-April another convoy of military equipment set off from the Georgian town of Akhalkalaki for the 102nd Russian base in the Armenian town of Gyumri, Interfax was told by an official from the 62nd Russian military base, based in this Georgian town. "This is the second convoy this year, and it is taking property from the automobile service and the mess of the 62nd Russian military base, which is due to be closed in 2007, from Akhalkalaki to Gyumri," he said. The Russian military is eager to explain that there are plans to send six convoys from Akhalkalaki to Gyumri in 2007. Furthermore, 19 specially-assigned trains containing weapons, equipment and property from Russian military bases will be leaving Georgia not only for Russia but for Armenia too.

It is obvious that in the emerging situation Russia simply has no other option than to show more or less clear support for pro-Russian forces in Armenia - be they Serzh Sarkisyan's Republicans or anyone else - and consequently to take upon itself political responsibility for their actions on the Armenian domestic political scene. Since no-one balks at terror there, and the actions of Russia in the post-Soviet space are at the centre of attention of the international media, it cannot be ruled out that banner headlines such as The Kremlin Supports Terrorists will appear in the foreign press tomorrow.