THE SHOW CALLED "IRAN CRISIS" IS CONTINUING

The events surrounding Iran's nuclear programme resemble a well-promoted serial which has all the main elements of a quality show: intrigues behind the scenes, a slanging match, accusations of spying, sensational statements and sensational disclosures, threats and finally, the most important thing, constant hints that the world might hear the explosions of heavy aviation bombs at any moment. The main characters of the action are, of course, George Bush and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They also bear responsibility for directing this action. 

The American and Iranian presidents are very good at their mission - every episode with their participation shows sincerity and genuine enthusiasm. In any case, there are other main characters, as well as people involved in issues of direction, in this international project. But their mission is not always so noticeable and not everyone wants to recognize it. For example, it is worth mentioning the brilliant performance of a number of Russian, British and Israeli politicians whose contribution to the show has already been valued by many. We can also mention other Middle Eastern and European "political actors". As for the plot, of course, it seems be to linked only to Iran's nuclear dossier at first sight. Viewers who are trying not to miss a single episode have known for a long time that the serial has several main plots knotted tightly together, which makes the film so attractive. We are talking about Middle Eastern hydrocarbon resources, the Shi'i-Sunni confrontation and finally, about the fight for regional and world dominance. However, the success of the serial is still based on the fact that every viewer can find in it something that is close to his soul. All those who, for some reason, do not like the Americans, Iranians, Jews, Muslims, Christians, mullahs, the military, Shi'is, Sunnis, the rich, the poor and so on are happy with the plot. But the most important thing is that no-one knows for sure how the show will end. So for the time being, even the most perverted fantasies are welcome. But most likely, just like in any decent serial, the end will be made up and played as the situation develops. Everything depends on the goals of the producers of the show and on how long they are going to allocate money for the project. But this is a Great Secret.

Key scene No 1: "Adoption of the resolution" 

There is a saying that every joke has a grain of truth. This principle is totally suitable in this case. Indeed, doesn't another vote at the UN Security Council resemble a well-performed show? Last month all 15 members of the Security Council, including Russia and China, approved a new resolution on Iran. The number of the resolution is No 1747. It replaced Resolution No 1737 which was adopted at the end of the last year and was rejected by Tehran. The latest document is not that different from the previous one: The Islamic Republic of Iran is given 60 days to suspend all nuclear work unrelated to peaceful purposes. A new point in the resolution is the decision to freeze the bank accounts of 13 Iranian companies and 15 private individuals involved in projects to enrich uranium and develop missiles. Great powers also thought it necessary to recommend that all countries refrain from exporting weapons and allocating credits to Iran. Some visa restrictions were imposed as well. But at the same time, the bans do not affect humanitarian programmes and contracts concluded earlier. Of course, Tehran did not get more compliant after the text of the resolution was made public and everything remains as it is. That's to say the viewers would have been bored if Mahmud Ahmadinezhad had not salvaged the scene. First he threatened to fly to New York in order to address personally the UN Security Council session on voting day. But in any case, the visit did not take place - either the Iranian leader thought better of it, or as the Iranians claim, the US authorities did everything possible not to let him in. Nevertheless, the reaction of the Iranian president to the new Security Council resolution was quite convincing even from Tehran. He promised that the Iranian people will not forget those who voted for the document.

Key scene No 2: "Bushehr nuclear power plant" 

It is likely that a good share of this promise applies to Russia which does not seem to be defending Iranian interests so zealously of late. Either Tehran does not agree to give Moscow what they want in return, or the game is no longer worth the candle for the Russians. For this reason, it is no surprise that another episode of the serial was played around the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, which is being built by Russian specialists. It should be recalled that last autumn, Rosatom boss Sergey Kiriyenko promised to supply nuclear fuel in March 2007 - six months before the planned commissioning of the nuclear power plant. But in February, Moscow postponed the deadline for supplies, saying that Iran is not paying its bills. All this prompted the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, to say the following: "If the Russians do not want to give us the fuel, we will have to start enriching uranium on our own." According to Iran, it turns out that Moscow is prompting Iran to speed up its own nuclear programme. But at the same time, after suspending work on the Bushehr project, Moscow does not have to face criticism from the international community. It is clear that the problem of payments was raised between Tehran and Moscow not only at the beginning of this year. It is high time to use it for the right purpose now. In this context, we should point out an article which was recently published in the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to its authors, the start of hostilities in the Persian Gulf can bring economic benefits to the Russian Federation. The article is talking about an inevitable hike in oil prices. As is known, if the USA attacks Iran, Tehran is threatening to immediately block the Hormuz Straits in the Persian Gulf, through which more than 20 per cent of world oil is exported.

Key scene No 3: "The 300 Spartans and the 15 Britons" 

However, an analysis of Tehran's reaction to the new UN Security Council resolution and the Russian-Iranian dispute about the nuclear plant in Bushehr were put on the back burner after Iranian border guards captured 15 British marines on 23 March. The British marines were accused of violating the maritime border of the Islamic Republic of Iran and of espionage, which means that under Iranian law, they could be sentenced to life imprisonment. In turn, London did not admit its guilt and maintained that the marines had not gone beyond Iraq's territorial waters. This story continued for 13 days. During this time, the British servicemen first publicly apologized to the Iranian government for violating the state border and then sent letters home, saying that they had fallen victim to the policy of Tony Blair and George Bush. The American president himself described the British marines as "hostages", but in response, the press secretary of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Mohammad Ali Hoseyni, advised the head of the White House to "refrain from irrational, thoughtless and illiterate statements" and "not to exacerbate the situation". It is worth pointing out that the US government flatly denied the possibility of exchanging the 15 British marines for the five Iranians from the Iranian representative office in the Iraqi town of Erbil arrested during an American military operation in January. The Iranians were charged with espionage and links with Iraqi militants. It is interesting that according to some foreign publications, the USA initially planned to catch Mohammad Jafari, deputy head of the Iranian National Security Council, and General Minojahar Frouzanda, head of the intelligence service of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The administration of the head of the regional government of Kurdistan, where Erbil is located, confirmed that during the American attack, Jafari and Frouzanda were really in Iraq. The hunt for such high-ranking people confirms once again that emotions are running high between Iran and the USA. During the situation surrounding the capture of the British marines, the US State Department confirmed a report about an American citizen disappearing in southern Iran. The missing person was not identified for a long time, but it became known later that the name of the mysterious American is Robert Levinson and that he is a former FBI agent. Things then get even more interesting. ABC News quoted sources in the US and Pakistani special services as saying that the CIA has been coordinating the activities of the Pakistani terrorist group Jundullah (Soldiers of Allah) since 2004. The main purpose of its militants and their commander, Abdul Malik Rigi, was to kidnap and kill Iranian servicemen and government members. The group claimed responsibility for the explosions in the Iranian town of Zahedan where a bus carrying officers of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was attacked. This is not the first case of the sort. The thing is that the Iranian province of Baluchistan and Sistan, which borders on Pakistan and Afghanistan, is an extremely backward region of the country populated mainly by Sunnis. Also, this territory is regarded as the main corridor for drug smuggling. After coming to power, Mahmud Ahmadinezhad appointed his old friend (of course, a Shi'i) to head the province and spoke out in favour of sending military units there. Thus, if the report filed by ABC is true, it turns out that the USA made successful use of Iran's weak point. As is known, the USA is justifying its actions by the fact that according to the US intelligence services, radical Shi'i elements in Iraq receive some materials to assemble explosive devices from Iran. Returning to the story with the British marines, we would like to point out again the attention it attracted and the final which was brilliantly played by Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Suffice it to note at least the fact that the Iranian president made the Britons thank him and ended this unfavourable incident as a benefactor who gives his enemies a holiday present. Indeed, it is a move that deserves viewers' applause and it cannot be ruled out that this move was carefully planned in advance. Most likely, Ahmadinezhad's main goal was to demonstrate to the whole world that he is not a thick-headed tyrant and fanatic who dreams of weapons of mass destruction. Incidentally, if this is really true, the capture of the British marines was an excellent response to the Americans who have created a controversial action movie "the 300 Spartans" which tells of "the fight against the Persian threat to the whole civilized world". The only difference is that Ahmadinezhad preferred a real-life situation, probably because he does not have Hollywood studios at his disposal. However, there is another version: Tehran decided to let them go after encountering Britain's firm position and the rumours about an imminent attack. Some analysts even suppose that the capture of the Britons, the predictions made by the Russian military about the Pentagon's plans against Iran and George Bush's statements about "hostages" are all links of one chain. In general, a lot of things are unclear in the story with the British marines - beginning from details (why the only captured woman first put on the hijab and then took it off) to the main question (what prompted Tehran to release the marines). There are a lot of versions about this - the only thing we can do is to try not to drown in this flood of information.

Key scene No 4: "Failed bite" 

Meanwhile, all the aforesaid intrigues are far behind the fuss about a number of media reports on the date for the US air attack on certain targets across Iran. The Russian newspaper "Argumenty i Fakty" was the first to report an operation codenamed "Bite" scheduled for 0400 on 6 April. And then, this news started its triumphal march on the Internet with reports quoting "a source in the Russian law-enforcement agencies" and information from the Israeli intelligence service. The president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, Col-Gen Leonid Ivashov, added oil to the flames by saying that Washington is planning to attack a number of military and nuclear sites in Iran. Other Russian officials, including the chief of the Russian general staff, Yuriy Baluyevskiy, and the deputy foreign minister, Andrey Denisov, also spoke about imminent US air attacks on Iran. And it looked as though the news about Iranian border guards capturing 15 British marines only confirmed the prediction made for 6 April. Of course, all this caused concern in Azerbaijan, which was to a great extent prompted by a statement made by one of the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza. During his visit to Georgia, he said that in the event of an attack on Iran, US air forces might use military airports in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry immediately denied this possibility, which totally confirms the position of President Ilham Aliyev who has repeatedly stressed that Azerbaijani territory will not be used for any hostile actions against Iran. Nevertheless, various media, both in Azerbaijan and abroad, continued discussing a possible US attack on Iran till the early morning of 6 April.

Now new dates for the beginning of the US-Iran war are being named. According to many experts, emotions will probably run high again in late May when the deadline for Iran to suspend its nuclear programme expires, especially as a third American aircraft carrier is supposed to arrive at the Persian Gulf at this moment. Moreover, according to some reports, apart from Iran, Syria and Lebanon are also preparing for war with the USA. So to all appearances, viewers will be able to watch more episodes from the grandiose show called "Iran crisis".