ULTIMATUM TO BAGHDAD

The beginning of April was marked by a sharp escalation in tension in Turkey's relations with Iraq. Claims about Ankara's unchanged Iraqi policy and maintaining the status quo until the results of the May presidential elections in Turkey turned out to be wrong. The crisis was triggered by a statement by the leader of the Kurdish community of Northern Iraq and chairman of the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (DPK), Massoud Barzani, that "if Turkish troops enter Northern Iraq and take the city of Kirkuk, Iraqi  Kurds will respond by taking the Turkish city of Diyarbakir". 

Official Ankara gave an immediate response through Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan: "Ankara will not give in to Massoud Barzani's 'show' which is only aimed at increasing his popularity in Northern Iraq. I can only give assurances that Barzani himself is not capable of carrying out one iota of his threats, but may he have no doubt that Ankara will make him eat his words." Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul was more laconic: "There will be a response and it will be heard clearly in Iraq." Massoud Barzani's "threats" also prompted an urgent telephone conversation between Abdullah Gul and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during which official Ankara expressed its concern at the situation in Iraq. 

Turkey might have kept to the traditional diplomatic steps, had it not been for the attack by militants from the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (the PKK) on Turkish servicemen that killed 10 soldiers. A major operation was organized in the Iraqi border provinces to capture the terrorists and the Turkish General Staff declared that the PKK terrorists had entered the country from Northern Iraq, thereby raising with the Ankara government the issue of a rapid "response" to the PKK's accomplices.

Ankara's three conditions

The Turkish Foreign Ministry, which earlier avoided harsh statements on Iraq because of the USA's negative stance, sent a note to Baghdad which had more the tone of an ultimatum. The note contains three very specific demands on the fulfilment of which, Ankrara stresses, the future development of Turkish-Iraqi relations depend: first, Baghdad must take action to liquidate the terrorist bases in the country's northern regions. Otherwise, Turkey, on the basis of international law, pledges to use all the resources at its disposal to destroy the threats to its national interests. It is noted especially that none of Baghdad's steps to date in this regard has satisfied Turkey. Second, Ankara demanded that Iraq hand over the terrorists involved in the organization of attacks and explosions on its territory. In this regard official Ankara expressed its concern that Baghdad did not wish to ratify the agreement on the extradition of terrorists, although the document was submitted to the Iraqi government a year ago. Third, Turkey demanded that Iraq act immediately to combat the PKK.

At the same time President Ahmet Necdet Sezer chaired an extraordinary meeting of the country's National Security Council in Ankara which adopted a decision to expand the Turkish army's anti-terrorist operations on the border with Iraq. Members of the council also declared their commitment to maintaining the territorial integrity of Iraq and that the creation of a Kurdish state formation there was unacceptable.

Next the Turkish interior minister, Abdulkadir Aksu, said when he reported the killing of 14 terrorists: "Unlike in previous years Ankara will not stop here and firmly intends to eradicate the militants' bases." At the same time information filtered through to the press about the start of Turkish army tank manoeuvres in districts bordering Iraq, in particular in Sirnak province.

Straight after the National Security Council sitting, the text of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's telephone conversation with DPK leader Massoud Barzani was given to the Turkish media. The Turkish premier harshly demanded that Barzani destroy the PKK bases on the territories under his control and stressed that otherwise, Ankara would itself "do everything necessary". Ankara preferred not to make public the DPK leader's response to Erdogan, but his position became known anyway from the Iraqi press. Massoud Barzani called on Ankara not to interfere in Iraq's internal affairs. He said that a Kurdish formation on the territory of Northern Iraq with Kirkuk as its capital had to exist with its own attributes. "We do not even accept the Iraqi flag, as it reminds us of the regime of Saddam Hussein," the leader of the Northern Iraqi Kurds said.

USA smoothes things over

Nevertheless, Ankara's latest statements are clear evidence of Turkey's resolve to do everything possible to destroy the PKK bases, even at the cost of a cooling in relations with Washington. The White House has said many times that military operations by Turkey in Iraq would create "a new source of destabilization in the region" but no support for Ankara on the PKK has been forthcoming other than rhetoric about the need for a joint fight against terrorism.

However, Washington's position can be said to have changed somewhat in the last few days. The statement by the US secretary of state's advisor on Iraq, Barbara Stephenson, is evidence of this. For the first time she refrained from a negative comment about the possibility of Turkey conducting military operations inside Iraq. "Attacks by terrorists infiltrating Turkey from Iraq are unacceptable. Ankara has the full right to appropriate steps," Stephenson said. At the same time the State Department representative for the first time "noticed" that a section of the population of Northern Iraq wanted a delay in the referendum on the status of Kirkuk. And this is something that Ankara has said many times.

For his part the US ambassador in Ankara, Ross Wilson, supported Turkey's latest steps regarding Iraq, describing the Turkish Foreign Ministry's note as "completely understandable". "Turkey is fully entitled to take steps to eradicate the PKK. The decisions of any state to avert threats to its national interests must be respected," the ambassador said. In so doing Washington untied Ankara's hands, giving them the opportunity for "revenge".

First stage of pressure

However, it is not yet known exactly what Ankara will do about the Northern Iraqi Kurds. Turkey has taken up a waiting position, expecting a response to its note to Baghdad and is also calculating the possible results of a military operation in Northern Iraq. Ankara understands that Turkish troops that went into Iraq would clash not so much with members of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party, as with organized Peshmerge detachments led by Massoud Barzani. And this is no longer a lightning operation with minimal casualties. The failure of a potential operation would strike an irreparable blow to Erdogan's image, all the more so as Turkey will enter a new election race straight after the May presidential elections, this time for parliament in November. Excessive delay or the possible loss of Kirkuk as a result of the autumn referendum, which would practically turn the city into the capital of so-called Kurdistan, would be a disaster for Erdogan's political career. The Turkish prime minister is, therefore, forced to act decisively towards Baghdad. Ankara does not rule out the possibility of introducing economic sanctions against its southern neighbour at the first opportunity.