THE REVOLUTION "GHOST" RETURNS BACK CENTRAL ASIA

It is dangerous to start revolutions, but it is even more dangerous to stop them halfway. The events in today's Kyrgyzstan remind us of this common truth again: As the Tulip Revolution ended relatively softly, a crisis has broken out in this country again in the run-up to extraordinary presidential elections, or on the contrary, the same "main" crisis, which led to the Tulip Revolution, is exacerbating from time to time.

When according to "gentlemen's agreements", the post of Kyrgyz president was occupied by the "pro-Russian candidate" Kurmanbek Bakiyev and the "pro-Western leader" Feliks Kulov became prime minister, many were ready to state that a balance of power has been found in Bishkek. But alas, "the division of supreme powers" did not end here, the pause turned out to be temporary and the tents on Bishkek's main square - the symbol of open-ended protest - appeared there more than once.

After the resignation of the leader of Kyrgyzstan's "pro-Western" forces, Feliks Kulov, from the post of prime minister, most observers thought that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his supporters, oriented mainly to alliance with Russia, had managed to turn the situation to their own advantage. But now it is the president who has to retreat. Back in the middle of March, Kurmanbek Bakiyev sacked the secretary of the Security Council, Osmonali Guronov, who did not work in this post even for three months. Prosecutor-General Kambaraly Kongantiyev, one of the closest allies of the president, was fired five days later.

Then, Prime Minister Azim Isabekov fired five ministers: First Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov, the head of the government administration, Tynychbek Tabyldiyev, Emergencies Minister Dzhanysh Rustembekov, Health Minister Shayloobek Niyazov, Minister of Economic Development and Trade Sabyrbek Moldokulov and two chairmen of government agencies. 

The prime minister explained his decision by his intention to employ young staff members to work in the executive authorities. After that, Azim Isabekov himself submitted his resignation from the post of prime minister. He said that in this way, he wanted to stabilize the situation in the country. Almazbek Atanbayev, one of the leaders of the opposition movement For a United Kyrgyzstan, was immediately appointed acting prime minister. Thus, one of the key demands of the Kyrgyz opposition - the formation of a coalition government - was accepted. Besides that, what we are talking about here is not just one crucial decision, but a whole series of concessions.

In any case, there is likelihood that by appointing Atanbayev to the post of prime minister, Bakiyev tried to solve the situation "with little blood". At the time, the president also had to parry quite tough demands put forward by the United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan, which was set up by the former prime minister of the republic, Feliks Kulov. This organization is demanding extraordinary presidential elections in the country. Kulov's supporters promised to start protests on 11 April. In turn, Bakiyev said that in his opinion, such demands by individual political forces are "absolutely not serious".

"If someone has doubts, I am ready to initiate a referendum on the people's confidence in the incumbent president, but only after the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit. Starting a political action on the eve of a summit that is of historic importance to our country is an irresponsible step," ITAR-TASS quoted Bakiyev as saying. The SCO summit the president spoke about will take place in Bishkek on 16 August 2007, and it is not difficult to guess that by that time, Bakiyev hopes to turn the situation to his own advantage.

Moreover, there is another version according to which by appointing Almazbek Atanbayev to the post of prime minister, Bakiyev tried to split the opposition camp.

Indeed, if recently the movement For Reforms was the leading opposition force in Kyrgyzstan, now a number of prominent politicians - Roza Otunbayeva, Azimbek Beknazarov, Almaz Atanbayev, Edil Baysalov and Dooronbek Sadyrbayev - have set up their own United Kyrgyzstan. Several more members of the movement For Reforms joined the United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan headed by Kulov. Representatives of opposition groups say that despite their disagreements, they intend to cooperate on key issues, but in reality, the disagreements between opposition leaders should not be underestimated.

In European politics, ability to make a compromise has always headed the list of political virtues. In the process of forming ruling coalitions and election blocs, ability to make a deal and find points of contact is quite an important skill. 

In the countries where democratic traditions, and therefore, "the Code of Conduct" are only being established, there is always a risk that concessions will be assessed as a weakness. What is more, the same Bakiyev did not demonstrate any readiness to make a deal with his opponents before.

In any case, the new government in Kyrgyzstan does not include any representative of the opposition yet. The new emergencies minister is Turatbek Dzhunushaliyev who previously worked as a deputy minister of economic development and trade, while the health minister is Tuygunaaly Abdraimov who headed the Central Electoral Commission from June 2005 to December 2006 and held leading posts at the Kyrgyz Health Ministry before that. The State Committee for Taxes and Duties is headed by the former head of the Bishkek tax committee, Temirbek Kurmanbekov. There are no representatives of the opposition among the new members of the government, people in Bishkek stress.

The same decree allowed Minister of Transport and Communications Nurlan Sulaymanov, Minister of Economic Development and Trade Sabyrbek Moldokulov and the head of the state committee for migration and employment, Aygul Ryskulova, to retain their posts.

In this regard, the media immediately recalled that after the Kyrgyz parliament endorsed the leader of the Social Democratic Party and prominent opposition figure, Almaz Atanbayev, in the post of prime minister on 30 March, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev instructed him to form a coalition government that would include representatives of the opposition, including the radical opposition.

However, the leaders of Kyrgyzstan's radical opposition movement For Reforms and the United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan refused to participate in the formation of the cabinet, saying that "the change of persons in the composition of the government will not change the political situation in the republic". They promised to continue demanding extraordinary presidential elections. According to the opposition, in Kyrgyzstan first of all, it is necessary to change the political system and approaches to the division of powers between various branches of power because according to the constitution, the government depends on the president and has no right to make decisions.

The new prime minister, Almazbek Atanbayev, said that he will meet the leaders of these movements and hold negotiations on joining the new cabinet of ministers. However, the latest reports from Bishkek show that the opposition, on seeing that the authorities are making concessions, is full of determination to "finish Bakiyev off". A member of the movement For Reforms and of the United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan, MP Omurbek Tekebayev, has already told journalists that Atanbayev will not be able to change anything without the opposition's help. "If we give up our intentions and cancel the rallies on 9 and 11 April, the 'White House' will no longer respect the new prime minister," the MP explained. Meanwhile, 117 activists of the radical opposition - the United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan - have already started a hunger strike on the Old Square in the centre of Bishkek. The protesters, as was expected, are demanding extraordinary presidential elections and constitutional reforms in the country.

Kulov said at his news conference that the opposition has suggested that Bakiyev agree to hold extraordinary presidential elections, carry out a constitutional reform and set up a coalition government which will rule out the use of administrative resources during the presidential elections. In this case, the opponents of the country's president are ready for talks with him.

According to the opposition's plan, the radical opposition will start mass open-ended protest rallies in regions of the country on 9 April and in Bishkek on 11 April. Kulov said earlier that "a peaceful handover of power will take place in the republic on 11 April".

However, the biggest danger is something different. In what is going on in Kyrgyzstan today, many analysts reasonably see first of all a confrontation between two clans: the "northerners" (led by Bakiyev) and the "southerners" (led by Kulov). A clan confrontation is always much tougher than a political one. For this reason, there is no hope that the situation in Kyrgyzstan will stabilize soon.