PRESIDENT VS. PARLIAMENT

Ukraine is experiencing yet another political crisis. The country is again divided into two camps which are treating each other with animosity, both claiming to be right and both confident of victory. Nevertheless, the paradox of the present situation is that there will hardly be a winner in this prolonged stand-off. 

It all started with President Yushchenko issuing a decree on 2 April dissolving the country's parliament and setting the date of an early election - 27 May 2007. According to him, the deputies of the Supreme Rada received a deserved punishment for the "unconstitutional formation of the majority, illegitimate decisions and revision of the election results".

It goes without saying that the ruling coalition of national unity (Party of regions, SPU and CPU) had no intention of obeying the presidential decree. Parliamentarians are convinced that there is no reason for the dissolution of the Rada and that it must continue operating. MPs have also accused the president of breaching a whole number of Constitutional articles and setting a dangerous precedent which may lead to a coup d'etat. It was for this reason that only several hours after the news of the presidential decree spread, the parliament adopted a resolution forbidding the Ukrainian government to engage in any action towards organization of an early election and allocation of any funds for the purpose. A total of 261 MPs supported the resolution, while the required minimum was 226 votes. At the same time, an address to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe was adopted, explaining the illegitimate action of the head of the Ukrainian state. In response, Brussels recommended that all branches of power in Ukraine obey the decision of the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court is currently dominated by the supporters of Yanukovich, but it is not known what will happen next. Some Ukrainian media say that a real hunt has been started for the opinions of judges. We recall that earlier MPs representing the ruling majority asked the top judicial body to examine whether the presidential decree on dissolving the parliament was constitutional. According to the law, the court can take up to six months to consider an issue…

Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich himself has described Yushchenko's decree as "usurpation of power" and "an attempt on the constitutional structure". He urged the president to recall the document "to avoid the worst". The prime minister is believed to see early election as "the worst". Yushchenko, however, does not seem to be worry of such a scenario. In response to the calls by his opponent, he said that "law and order in the early election will be secured by the army and Col-Gen Gritsenko personally". As is known, Defense Minister A. Gritsenko has announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain loyal to the president who is also the Commander-in-Chief. It is curious that when the news on the dissolution of the Rada was circulated, Gritsenko was attending a planned exercise of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Central Command's rapid reaction forces in Koncha-Zaspa near Kiev. In fact, the first tank brigade, one of the best units of the Ukrainian army, was deployed near the residencies of Ukraine's top administration officials. The media have even detected that for the first time in two years the brigade had received a supply of diesel fuel and live ammunition for firing drills. Gritsenko pointed to fighters' high morale and promised to Viktor Yushchenko that if an appropriate order was issued he was ready "to ensure law and order no matter what provocation attempts are made".

It is worthy of note that the acting head of Ukraine's Security Service, Valentin Nalivaychenko, also said that his subordinates would do everything necessary to ensure normal functioning of the Central Electoral Commission and other election commissions in the country. He was talking of protecting the new make-up of the CEC led by Yaroslav Davidovich who was appointed after the "orange" victory. The point is that prior to Nalivaychenko's statement the Rada canceled the decision to dissolve the CEC established in 2004. Therefore, in the event of an early election to the Ukrainian parliament, it will have to be held under the CEC led by Sergey Kivalov, MP from the Party of Regions. However, as the leader of Pora, Vladislav Kaskiv, eloquently promised, Kivalov can only do that "through a sewage tunnel".

Supporters of the Yuliya Timoshenko Bloc are particularly determined. According to the former socialist who is currently Timoshenko's comrade-in-arms, Iosif Vinskiy, "if the president and Our Ukraine go for talks, for a secret agreement with the Party of Regions, with Yanukovich", the position of the Bloc will not change. "We will then act independently. We cannot by scared by that. It may not be the Maydan [square in Kiev where the "orange" revolution demonstrations were held] this time, but there will be some other place," Vinskiy added. At the same time, the Bloc has no intention of uniting with Our Ukraine. The two political forces would like to stand in the early election separately because they think they can thus receive more votes. When asked about the future list of her bloc, Timoshenko said the following: "All the deputies of our faction who have not succumbed to the temptation … all these deputies will be in the top section of the list, while traitors will certainly not."

As far as the mood in the regions is concerned, it largely resembles the disposition of forces in the run-up to the "orange" revolution. Of course, nothing is supposed to have changed except for the fact that people have grown sick and tired of the endless political wrangling shocking Kiev. Thus, the chairman of the Crimean Supreme Council has reaffirmed his dedication to the government cabinet and promised to delegate his representatives to the capital to protect the constitutional structure. It only remains to hope that all such actions will be peaceful.

Indeed, the most dangerous thing that can happen in Ukraine is the forceful scenario of developments. In essence, the country is already divided in two camps - those supporting the government and parliament and those backing the president and opposition parties. The Supreme Rada can be supported by internal troops, while Viktor Yushchenko has the army and the Security Service on his side. At the same time, the parliament can appoint its defense minister. Also, there are already two electoral commissions in Ukraine.

It is obvious that if the opposition does decide to conduct an early election, the Party of Regions and its allies (in the east and south of the country) may boycott it and will not recognize the new make-up of the Rada. Theoretically all this can lead to a split of the state into two parts. In all fairness it has to be said that Ukraine's religious life is not homogenous either.

However, it is not known how long Viktor Yushchenko will remain determined. To overcome crisis, the Ukrainian president and prime minister already have experience in joining their forces against the "orange" lady, Yuliya Timoshenko. It is also worth taking one factor into account - since the Yuliya Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine intend to stand in the election separately, it is doubted that the president's supporters will receive enough votes to retain real power in their hands. 

It is quite likely that Yushchenko himself is not particularly happy with the current state of affairs in Ukraine. But he was left with no other option because Yanukovich and his supporters were putting unprecedented pressure on the president. In essence, the president's was gradually losing authority. This is confirmed by the clashes which occurred between the two branches of power over changes to the law on the Cabinet of Ministers. According to Yushchenko, "the government developed whatever it wanted, while an obedient parliament was adopting those laws". At the same time, if the presidential team had slightly "held its horses", this crisis could have been averted. After Yanukovich effectively became the leader of the parliamentary majority and chairman of the coalition government, all he had to do was to wait for a presidential election. However, he and his benefactors in the Kremlin preferred to speed things up to take the reins of power once and for good. And this prompted Yushchenko to dissolve the Rada.

At the same time, many experts believe that the present situation in Ukraine should not be seen only as a clash between pro-Russian and anti-Russian (pro-Western) forces. The latest developments in the country have shown that Yanukovich is not particularly attached to Russia, while Yushchenko does not loathe it at all. It appears that the main "victim" of the political crisis in Ukraine will be the national economy. Investors are already looking at Kiev with some caution. Things may only get worse in the future.