TURKEY'S 17TH MILITARY OPERATION IN IRAQ

The year 2007 has been a most difficult one in the history of modern Turkey for the country has been faced with an unprecedented number of external threats. The endless war in Iraq, international sanctions against Iran, the confrontation between the USA and Syria, combating a lie of international proportions - the fictitious Armenian "genocide", serious problems with joining the European Union and so on have all turned Ankara's neighbours into a ring of instability. If one adds to this the ongoing crisis with Greece over the division of territorial waters, also the outstanding conflicts in the South Caucasus and the problems in relations with Washington, we see a highly unenviable picture for Turkey which is being exacerbated by the election wave sweeping the country. Right after the presidential elections planned for May, the country will enter a new phase of election campaigns connected with the parliamentary elections in November.

Analysts both in Ankara itself and outside Turkey agree that the foreign policy course of the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan will come to grief. The difficulties would not be so noticeable were it not for a big "BUT" - Iraq, or rather its northern regions densely populated by Kurds. A referendum on the status of the town of Kirkuk, which Iraqi Kurds are striving to turn into the capital of their future state, is planned for autumn 2007. Ankara is trying to hinder that using all possible political levers, but the situation in the region does not speak well for Turkey. The USA and the government in Baghdad which it supports have openly voiced their support for the referendum and against Turkish troops carrying out ground operations in northern Iraq.  

All of this has led to serious debates inside Turkey itself, which peaked with the open confrontation between the General Staff and the Cabinet of Ministers. Erdogan's government spoke out in favour of holding talks with the leaders of the Iraqi Kurds while the army, in the person of Commander of Land Forces Huseyn Kyvrykoglu, said talks with those who supported terrorists, i.e. the PKK (Kurdish Workers' Party) were unacceptable.

Analysing the situation, I would like to draw attention to the position of the USA which in just a year has completely changed its position with regard to Turkey's plans in Northern Iraq. Comparatively recently, Washington supported Ankara's desire to eradicate terrorist bases in Northern Iraq. State Department spokesmen said openly "that every day innocent citizens are dying on the territory of Turkey at the hands of terrorists who have infiltrated the country from Northern Iraq, and the position of Ankara, as a partner of the USA through NATO is quite natural". But after the February visit by the chief of the Turkish General Staff to Washington, the US radically changed its opinion. The green light for Turkish army operations in Northern Iraq turned to red.

It should be noted that Turkey had carried out in total 16 ground military operations in Iraq from the spring of 1983 up until the occupation of Iraq in 2003. But the White House did not once express such serious criticism of Ankara's plans. And the answer to the question why is very simple. 

Washington does not "recognise the targets"        

In all 16 operations, the Turkish army had specific targets - terrorists, members of the Kurdish Workers' Party. Iraqi Kurds and the peshmurgas (armed Kurdish units) became at least neutral forces which did not interfere in Ankara's plans.  In some instances, as in 1991, having received de facto autonomy, the Iraqi Kurds directed the efforts of the peshmurgas towards supporting the Turkish army since Massoud Barzani, one of the two most influential Kurdish leaders, suffered substantial losses of men in the fight against the PKK for influence in the region. But now the situation has changed radically.  There are three autonomous Kurdish regions in the north of Iraq today. The Turkish General Staff, in the person of Gen Kyvrykoglu, openly accused M. Barzani and the other Iraqi Kurd leader - the incumbent president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, of supporting the PKK and declared them "friends of terrorists". Turkey's president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, also supported the General Staff's position, having said that he would not invite the president of Iraq to Ankara until the latter changed his stance towards the PKK. We will note that Talabani has never once referred to the Kurdish Workers' Party as a terrorist organisation in his speeches saying that the "PKK is Turkey's internal affair". Ankara is also afraid that some of the American weapons the USA gave the peshmurgas to ensure stability in the northern regions will end up in the hands of the PKK. Consequently, a specific question arose which among others substantially influenced Washington's position. Who will be the target of the Turkish army in Northern Iraq? The PKK or those who have been declared the myrmidon of Kurdish terrorists? What will be the criteria for distinguishing terrorists from peaceful citizens? For if Iraqi Kurds were seen earlier as a neutral force at least, they are becoming enemies now. 

Of course, as a US ally through NATO, Turkey will receive some support in Northern Iraq, intelligence, in the first instance. But it should not be forgotten that the north of Iraq is the only place in the country where the Americans have suffered minimal losses since the start of the war and where the situation is stable thanks to the control of the peshmurgas. Any military operation in the north of the country will destroy the fragile balance of power and this is at the least undesirable for the USA. In this connection, Tom Casey, a US State Department spokesman, said openly that Washington, while supporting the territorial integrity of Iraq, does not approve of Turkey's plans to carry out military operations in Northern Iraq. It should not be forgotten that Washington is also being pressed by the deadlines of the new Iraq strategy which prescribes in the first instance the guarantee of stability in Baghdad and around it and the Americans have failed to achieve this so far. A new US strategy towards Iran, Syria and the Lebanon is being developed in parallel.

The Iranian factor has not been taken into account either. Tehran, just like Ankara, does not want a Kurdish state to be set up as there are a large number of Kurds living in Iran. Iran has carried out frequently operations to eradicate guerrilla bases from regions bordering on Turkey. The crisis surrounding Tehran's nuclear programme and Ankara's reluctance to take part in a possible military campaign against Iran have brought the positions of both countries closer.    

Postponed until June 

A number of Iraqi publications have recently carried information about the start of a large-scale military operation by Turkey on Iraqi territory. Although the Turkish General Staff immediately denied the information, the situation has become exacerbated nevertheless. It soon became known that what was at issue was an operation to destroy terrorists in the immediate vicinity of the border with Iraq. Against the background of official denials, reports about large military forces being drawn up to Turkey's southern borders with Iraq, in particular, in the provinces of Batman, Siirt and Bingol, began to filter through to the Turkish media.  

In this connection, the initiative by the government of R.T. Erdogan to start a dialogue with the leaders of the Iraqi Kurds does not obstruct the General Staff's plans. On the contrary, it would make it possible to neutralise any undesirable actions by the peshmurga against Turkish soldiers. There will be substantial changes in Ankara's position if the situation does not change by autumn and if the preparations for the referendum on the status of Kirkuk continue. Turkey has stated frequently that it will prevent the creation of a Kurdish state at its borders using all possible levers and it will do that even at the cost of a crisis in its relations with the USA. Military operations will become an inevitability. 

In one way or another, no military operations by the Turkish army are expected before June when the name of the new president of Turkey will become known and when his position with regard to Iraq is shown.