TO DIE AT A CRUCIAL MOMENT

On 28 March Armenia said farewell to Prime Minister Andranik Markaryan who died from heart failure at the age of 56. He had a history of heart problems.

The news of the prime minister's death caught Armenia, or to be more exact, the country's authorities, unawares. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 12 May in Armenia, and Andranik Markaryan was head not only of the government but also of the main force in the ruling coalition, the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). "Andranik Markaryan passed away at a crucial moment. As the representatives of the authorities we must take the right decision to sort out the situation," Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said in a speech to the government. Andranik Markaryan was quite an authoritative politician who, for the first time in Armenian history, led the government for seven consecutive years. The late prime minister was also known for his ability to find a common language both with his partners in power and the opposition, even the most radical. He showed his abilities to conduct successful negotiations for the first time during the emergency of 27 October 1999 when he persuaded the terrorists who caused a bloodbath in the Armenian parliament to give themselves up. After this Andranik Markaryan became head of government, replacing Vazgen Sarkisyan, who had been killed in parliament. Most experts think that it is thanks to Markaryan's authority that his party is leading in the electoral race. Opinion polls say the RPA has the chance to win up to 30 per cent of votes. However, the death of the party leader has called into question the results of the opinion polls conducted earlier. Attention is now concentrated on how the appointment of Markaryan's successor will affect the political balance of forces in the country. And on the subject of his successor, as was to be expected the chairman of the party council, Defence Minister Serzh Sarkisyan, has been appointed RPA leader. It looks like he will also be appointed prime minister. Most experts think Sarkisyan is the most likely candidate for the post, as the defence minister is thought the most influential figure in the former Cabinet of Ministers. Partners in the ruling coalition, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (the Dashnaks), have already voiced their support for Sarkisyan. Long before the prime minister's death Sarkisyan was named the most likely successor to Robert Kocharyan. Everything appears to be moving in this direction.

Meanwhile, in line with the Armenian Constitution, the government has already submitted its resignation. The new composition should be formed by 25 April. President Kocharyan has asked the ministers to continue to carry out their duties until the creation of the new government. Although it is hardly likely to be new. It would be wrong to suppose that Robert Kocharyan would take risks and change ministers right before parliamentary elections. Some observers think that there is no point in changing the government. They think that after the elections the majority in parliament will be made up by other forces, to be more exact the Prosperous Armenia Party, loyal to the authorities and led by oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan. Although polls put this party neck and neck with the RPA, experts think that the death of the RPA leader at the finishing line will allow Tsarukyan's party to move ahead. Only after this can the balance of forces in the government change, as Tsarukyan by rights will be able to claim a number of ministerial posts. 

In any event, the May parliamentary elections to the Armenian National Assembly will start off an electoral cycle that will finish in 2008 with the presidential elections. So who will lead the country a year from now will depend on the balance of forces in the new parliament and government.