THE EAST –– IS A SUBTLE MATTER

Last month saw a significant development in Azerbaijan's foreign policy. President Ilham Aliyev paid a visit to Tajikistan on 15-16 March. This was the first visit by an Azerbaijani head of state to Dushanbe in the entire history of their bilateral relations.

We should note from the start that such a breakthrough could not go unnoticed. Everyone had their own interpretation. Some viewed the event from the standpoint of the development of political and economic relations between the two countries and some saw this as Azerbaijan lobbying for the interests of the West in a country which borders Afghanistan and, more importantly, Iran.

We are not inclined to argue against any of these positions. But it has to be noted that Azerbaijan is first of all an independent state which has its own influence in the region. Any foreign visit by its president must primarily be seen from the viewpoint of its national interests and only then from a perspective of the possible benefits for third countries.

During the visit Azerbaijan and Tajikistan signed a friendship and cooperation treaty, as well as 10 other accords regulating bilateral relations in the spheres of investment, transport links, tourism, visa-free travel, and humanitarian and customs cooperation. Agreement was reached to open embassies and on a reciprocal visit by the president of Tajikistan, Emomali Rakhmonov, to Azerbaijan by the end of 2007. The sides also agreed to set up an intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation which will supervise the implementation of the agreements signed. It is plain to see that relations between the governments of Azerbaijan and Tajikistan are evolving towards an essentially new stage of their development.

The nature of the agreements signed shows that in terms of economic relations Azerbaijan and Tajikistan have much in common, especially in the sphere of transport and investment. The Tajiks have openly stated their interest in attracting Azerbaijani investments. "Tajikistan has an abundance of natural riches, including energy resources. The rich experience, technologies and investment capabilities of our Azerbaijani partners may serve as a basis for establishing mutually beneficial cooperation in these fields," Emomali Rakhmonov said. He added that there is already a package of specific projects. It includes more than 400 investment projects in various sectors of the economy.

For his part, Ilham Aliyev confirmed Azerbaijan's intention to take part in developing Tajikistan's economy and said that Azerbaijani investors began funding projects abroad in 2006. "Today our companies already enjoy a good reputation abroad and have the financial means necessary. The process of investment is already under way. Therefore, today's visit, the documents that were signed and, I am sure, the future continuation of our active dialogue and exchange of delegations, including economic ones, will paint a more complete picture of the sectors of Tajikistan's economy in which our money can be invested," Aliyev noted. The president also mentioned the possibility of cooperation in developing Tajikistan's oil and gas fields. Experts believe that Azerbaijan may take part in developing fields like Kashkokum, Western Olimtoy, Guldara and Rengana. Of course these are not major fields, but this will allow Tajikistan to improve its energy balance and partially reduce the import of Uzbek gas. Along with the financial advantages, Azerbaijan may gain extra political dividends in the Asian part of the CIS. This is how Azerbaijan, by once attracting Western investments, has turned itself into a potential investor in the region. Using its handsome profits from the realization of global-scale oil and gas contracts the country strengthens its position, already reaching beyond the South Caucasus.

Bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Tajikistan amounted to 140.8m dollars in 2006. For comparison, let us note that the overall trade turnover of Tajikistan stood at 3.1bn dollars in 2006. The CIS accounted for 1.3bn dollars, which means that Azerbaijan's share of Tajikistan's trade with CIS countries is more than 10 per cent. This can be considered quite an impressive indicator against the background of the relatively weak economic links between the two countries. The rate of growth is also very high at 25-30 per cent annually. This is despite the fact that the main contributor to trade is the cooperation in the sphere of the aluminium industry. However, the sides note that there is a significant potential for increasing the trade in other, no less promising areas.

Azerbaijan's interest in developing transport links with Tajikistan is also significant. As a link connecting Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan commits itself to all initiatives and makes intense efforts to revive the Great Silk Route. In this sense, Tajikistan's potential as a transit country for the South Asian nations should not be underestimated. On the other hand, active involvement in the Eurasian transport corridor promises generous benefits to Tajikistan itself which thus gains direct access to the Caucasus and European markets. From this viewpoint, Dushanbe may waste little time in supporting Aliyev's proposal to join in on the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. "We will soon start building the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, which will be a bridge between Asia and Europe. I believe that Tajikistan may be interested in joining the project in future. This is an element of regional cooperation which will benefit all the countries that join it," the Azerbaijani president said.

Undoubtedly, Azerbaijan's allies and partners will also gain from strengthening this cooperation. It is possible that the European Union and the USA are interested in the development of ties between Azerbaijan, which has taken a course towards international integration, and the Asian countries of the CIS, which are isolated within their region. This interest may be expressed in the development of transport corridors and further diversification of Europe's energy sources, rather than through military-cum-political initiatives. However, the possibility of the North Atlantic military and political alliance being interested in establishing relations between its active partner, Azerbaijan, and a Central Asian state which, unlike its neighbours, holds no grudges against the organization, cannot be ruled out. From this perspective, the USA may be interested in liaising with Tajikistan via a reliable partner in the form of Azerbaijan, since this country borders Afghanistan and Iran and should therefore be regarded as an important link in Washington's policy for these countries, on a par with Azerbaijan. However, it would be wrong to assume that Washington views Tajikistan as a launch pad for hitting Iran. The USA has plenty of other options here: the coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, military bases in Turkey, Qatar, Kuwait and their aircraft-carriers in the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, Tajikistan poses no serious threat to US plans in Afghanistan or even Iran, not least because there are almost no Russian servicemen in the country.

Azerbaijan's involvement in the economy of Tajikistan can only redress the lack of balance in the foreign policy priorities of this Central Asian country. This is a sign of Baku's balanced foreign policy.