TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PRESIDENT

The inauguration of 30-year-old Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov will take place on 15 April. His candidature for the post was nominated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the Chechen parliament endorsed it practically unanimously. The debatable, to put it mildly, reputation of the new leader of this most problematic region of the Russian Federation, has naturally attracted the world's attention. The Kremlin has made its move. Understandably, the future of the republic, and therefore of the entire North Caucasus, will now depend very much on Kadyrov's decisions. It should be remembered that many Russian and foreign analysts have no faith at all in a peaceful and prosperous Chechnya and are speculating as to what extent and for how long the Chechen president will wish to be guided by the Centre. In fact, they have another question: "How long will Ramzan be able to remain loyal to Moscow?"

For the time being, Kadyrov is doing his best to present himself as more of an entrepreneur than politician. Recently he refused to sign an agreement on the delimitation of powers between the republic and the federal centre. Having done so, he quite confounded those critics who accuse him of sneaky separatist ambitions. "I doubt the need to sign such a document and believe that this issue is irrelevant to the Chechen republic today," Kadyrov explained and conspicuously turned his attention to economic projects. At issue is the so-called "new economic strategy of Chechnya" - a blueprint industrial policy for 2007-15. What is more, the president is going to complete the reconstruction of Groznyy and Chechnya by the end of 2008.

For the time being, his words are matched by deeds. A passenger airplane arrived from Moscow and landed at Groznyy airport on International Women's Day, 8 March. Now this flight will take place three times a week, but Kadyrov is obviously not going to look only to the north. He has already promised that the capital will become the main air gateway of the North Caucasus. Further, office and business centres and a hotel are to appear near the new airport on a site of 400 h, and a railway line will be laid. Also in Groznyy, on orders from the president, a programme to provide "housing for every poor family" is already underway; about 100 flats for poor families from a refusal fund have already been prepared. Another of Kadyrov's initiatives was the appointment of businessman Ali Simbarigov to the post of head of the Vedenskiy District administration. He believes that this decision will help turn Vedeno, the homeland of terrorist Shamil Basayev and a favourite haunt of the Wahhabis, into a "resort paradise" in a couple of years. "Nature, mountains, lakes and springs, of which there are a plenty in Vedenskiy District, make it a good base for mountain resorts to be built here," the new Chechen leader believes.

But most of all Kadyrov is interested in Chechnya's oil industry. The "black gold" is currently extracted there by the oil company "Rosneft". However, the president has already calculated that the republic's budget receives far less revenue than the company does. He is also unhappy about the fact that Chechnya is a supplier of crude oil only, whereas it could develop its own oil refining industry. Thus, the construction of an oil refinery, designed to refine 5m tonnes of oil products a year should start in Chechnya in the near future.

In the meantime, Kadyrov's economic plans arouse poorly concealed scepticism among many experts and political analysts. They believe that former militants are unlikely to immediately retrain to work as support staff in numerous hotels and mountainous bases. If only for this reason there is currently a large abyss between the actual state of affairs in the republic, which was for so long a bloody slaughterhouse, and Kadyrov's initiatives; and this abyss can certainly not be bridged by the construction of one modern airport alone. At the same time, it is difficult to call Kadyrov a dreamer. Perhaps he does actually have a special plan regarding Chechnya? What if, with time, Groznyy demands more and more freedom from the Kremlin, while the refusal to sign the agreement on delimitation of powers between the republic and the federal centre is nothing but a tactic aimed to slow down such developments? After all, Kadyrov can already afford to harshly criticise Moscow quite harshly; he partly blamed the centre for the fact that not all money allocated to the reconstruction of the republic finds its target. Also, the desire to adapt Chechnya's oil business says much. At issue is the so-called system-based separatism, meaning the gradual pulling over of the "power blanket" onto oneself. However, it would probably be rather na?ve to think that the Kremlin will again allow "deviations" in Chechnya's further development. The situation among the top brass in the Russian authorities is currently a long way from the one which existed during Dzhokhar Dudayev's heyday. Chechnya has apparently been promised broad independence in internal affairs, and even in the role of the so-called leader of the North Caucasus, under Moscow's watchful eye.

Another possible scenario is that forces will be found to counteract Kadyrov's line, even if he does not change his attitude towards the federal centre, and they will strengthen with time in this problematic region. Here is one simple fact which does not even require comment. A bus belonging to the Russian company "Stroytransgaz", which was carrying Russian specialists, was blown up in Algeria on 3 March. Unexpectedly, the North African branch of al-Qaeda, which does not like the latest developments in Chechnya, claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack.

In turn, a whole host of Western politicians and political analysts are openly shocked by Kadyrov's presidency. For example, the influential American publication "The Washington Post" believes that Vladimir Putin put forward "an unspeakably savage and criminal bandit ringleader" for president of the Chechen Republic. Rights activists accuse Kadyrov and the law-enforcement agencies subordinate to him (which, incidentally, are largely manned by former militants) of every possible human rights violation - from kidnappings to torture. Also, any commentary on the new Chechen president is constantly accompanied by mention of the names of the disgraced FSB officer Movladi Baysarov and the "Novaya Gazeta" journalist Anna Politkovskaya. Baysarov, who presented himself as a political rival of Kadyrov, was killed in central Moscow while he was being detained. Journalist Politkovskaya also died a violent death, and her last article, which was actually published posthumously, coincidentally or not said that officers of the Chechen security forces regularly tortured inmates suspected of separatism. So it is not surprising that many, including Chechens themselves, see only a bandit in Kadyrov and it is impossible to convince them of the contrary.

Nevertheless, a fact remains a fact. This man is the new president of Chechnya, and, to all appearances, is not going to say goodbye to his post, at least not in the next few years. As for Chechnya's future, it is again in question. The republic, where until recently possession of fire-arms by all men from teenage upwards was a normal thing, may not be called peaceful for a long time to come. It is also clear that the situation there has not ripened yet into a "developed democracy". Yes, the republic needs a strict leader capable of coming to terms with both Moscow and the militants. The whole question is how ambitious for power is Ramzan Kadyrov and how firmly will Moscow control him?