COUNTDOWN BEGINS IN EARNEST

On 3 March, Armenia determined the list of candidates who will stand in the country's election to the National Assembly [parliament] due on 12 May. The "group" turns out to be rather eclectic - 27 parties (ranging from communists to nationalists), one election bloc "Impeachment" and 173 people running in the first-past-the-post system. According to the Armenian Central Electoral Commission these include 41 current MPs, more than 60 independent and 38 jobless candidates. 

The youngest contender for a parliamentary seat is the head of the youth wing of the Bloc of National Democrats, Karen Vardanyan, who is only 25 years old. It is worth noting that many of the numerous unemployed candidates are businessmen and even oligarchs. The most prominent of them is the leader of the Prospering Armenia Party, Gagik Tsarukyan, who is said to be the richest man in the country. It is also curious that businessmen are followed by those standing trial and those on the wanted list who, apparently aware of the possibilities of parliamentary immunity, also want to become members of parliament. Among them, for example, is a member of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), Akop Akopyan (Choyt), who is facing charges under eight articles of the Criminal Code, entrepreneur Eduard Madatyan ("Khuchuch Edo"), who is wanted on charges of masterminding an attempt on representatives of the Armenian administration, etc. 

A popular Russian showman, editor of Comedy Club and host of the Minute of Fame programme on Russia's ORT, Garik Martirosyan, has also decided to try his luck in the election. He seems not to be content with the popularity he has earned in Russia and is now keen on returning to his own country in a new political capacity. Martirosyan is running for parliament for the United Liberal-National Party (ULNP), which is chaired by his brother Levon Martirosyan. In other words, the new Armenian parliament could become both rich and comic.

In the meantime, as was to be expected, the main contenders in Armenia's parliamentary elections will be the Republican Party of Armenia chaired by Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan (supported by Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisyan) and Gagik Tsarukyan's Prospering Armenia. The latter is a political force subordinate to incumbent president, Robert Kocharyan. The share of the nationalist ARF Dashnaktsutyun in the National Assembly is not expected to exceed 10 per cent. But this 10 per cent benchmark is guaranteed because, according to some in the Armenian media, the authorities need ARF to ensure liaison with Armenia's influential lobby.

As far as Armenia's opposition is concerned, it has failed to unite and politicians, upset as they are with the current state of things in Armenia, will run for parliament independently. This clearly reduces their chances of success. However, Armenia's opposition has managed to form one bloc with an impressive name - Impeachment. Members of the bloc, however, are highly unlikely to become MPs. It consists of the Democratic Fatherland and Conservative Party, which do not have major political clout in the political firmament. Perhaps the most promising opposition parties are Orinats Yerkir (Law Abiding Country), which took a clear anti-government stance last year, as well as the People's Party of Armenia and the National Unity Party.

According to the chairperson of the Social-Democratic Party Gnchak, Ludmila Sarkisyan, the key reasons for the Armenian opposition's failure to unite have been the personal ambitions of its leaders and the preference given to party interests over common goals. A member of the board of the Armenian nationwide movement, Aram Manukyan, told a Kavkazskiy Uzel correspondent that Russia was to blame for the divide in the Armenian opposition. He said Russia was interested in preserving authoritarian rule in Armenia. "Russia is playing a significant, negative role in Armenia's foreign and domestic life. The Russians have tremendous influence on political developments in Armenia. There are only a few political forces in Armenia - and I would not like to give their names - which consistently support Armenia's independence. They are not corrupt and do not cave in under external pressure. Unfortunately, there are not too many of them, and this is the main reason why Armenia has not yet experienced a change in power," Manukyan said.

The People's Party of Armenia has also expressed its discontent with the current political course of the country. Its spokesperson Ruzan Khachatryan said that Yerevan's participation "in the solution of its own domestic and external issues is gradually weakening because superpowers have the biggest say in solutions to the country's burning problems". This is why, "Armenia is not seen as one of the countries to reckon with". It is a pity that this revelation has been made only by one of the 27 parties standing in the election.

It is common knowledge that this election has aroused a great deal of interest because it will determine the disposition of forces in the run-up to the 2008 presidential election. The most likely winners in the parliamentary election (the Republican Party of Armenia and Prosperous Armenia) will probably retain pole positions in the presidential race as well. Robert Kocharyan, who is ending his second term in office, has solemnly promised to step down. At the same time, there are rumours that he is not going into retirement at all, but will become the country's next prime minister, with credentials significantly expanded following amendments to the constitution. The odds are on Serzh Sarkisyan as favourite to win the 2008 election. This doesn't play into the hands of Kocharyan who hardly needs a strong rival in power. But on the other hand, it is not known how an open stand-off between Sarkisyan and Kocharyan may end, and they understand this only too well. In other words, the situation is rather unclear at present. The political mist, however, is expected to start clearing by the end of this year. As for voters, sociologists are predicting that voter turnout will again be catastrophically low.