BETWEEN KHAMENEI AND BUSH

Iran is getting ready for a high-profile PR action as the president is expected to declare the country's "unseen achievements". FARS news agency reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plans to make an emotion-filled report about Iran's "nuclear rights". He will also speak about certain major technical and medical inventions, including the "cure for AIDS". FARS says jubilantly that 11 February will be the historic day when the nation will obtain an "undisputed right to access and use nuclear technologies". The date has not been chosen by chance. The report will mark a 10-day campaign of celebrations of another anniversary of the Islamic revolution and the president has decided to proclaim nuclear rights on this occasion as well. "When the nation decides to rise from its knees to overcome unseen heights on its own feet, God will help it, and this nation will win," Ahmadinejad has said in this connection.

FARS reports that the successes of scientists do not end at nuclear achievements. It is stated that after seven years of long and hard work, medical workers have developed a medicine based on vegetable components which helps to fight the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV). The medicine, which has been named IMOD, is effective and safe, and has no side-effects, Iranian Health Minister Kamran Baqeri Lankarani has said. "The world must know what the Iranian nation is capable of. Using the experience of scientists and young forces, we are reaching the heights of knowledge and science," the official said. Of course, we could recall with some irony that an "AIDS cure", called Armenikum, was already found in Armenia about 10 years ago. And now Iran has come up with one of its own. The question, however, is that the Iranian authorities desperately need a major PR breakthrough. 

Officially, the decision to deal a blow to Iran has not been made. Moreover, the world media, Russian and Western in particular, are providing a rather detailed coverage of the opinions and activities of "pigeons". For instance, according to a BBC report, three retired senior US officers have warned of "catastrophic consequences" of possible strikes on Iran. A letter published by the London newspaper Sunday Time says that military action would bring about "catastrophic consequences" for the security in the Middle East and for the coalition forces in Iraq. The letter has been signed by a former military aide for the US defense secretary, Lt-Gen Robert G. Gard, the former commander-in-chief of the US Central Command, Joseph P. Hoar, and vice-admiral Jack Shanahan who used to head the Washington-based center of defense information. "As former commanders of US armed forces, we call for refraining from the use of military force against Iran," the said. "The strategy of diplomatic interaction with Iran will serve the interests of the USA and the United Kingdom, and will potentially strengthen regional and international security," the letter said. It indicated further that the British government could play a "vitally important role" by contributing actively to the diplomatic effort. It also stresses that London "must make it clear that it will oppose any attempts to resort to military force".  

In Iran proper, however, such reports are received with a clear sense of understandable apprehension: what if it proves impossible to persuade Bush not to deal a blow on Iran? As a matter of fact, there are reasons for concern. Inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have installed additional cameras at Iran's uranium enrichment plant in Natanza, Iranian news agency IRNA says quoting an informed source who declined to reveal its name. According to the source, Tehran has sanctioned the installation of video surveillance systems for control over the activities of the Natanza plant in line with its commitments to the IAEA. At the same time, Russian News Agency Novosti has quoted an Iranian representative as saying that the "installation of new centrifuges (for uranium enrichment) in Natanza has not started yet".

On the face of it, this report is supposed to dispel the concerns of the world community. However, journalists are already sending a warning signal: Iran is still not allowing observers to install video cameras in underground facilities of the Natanza nuclear center where a cascade of 3,000 centrifuges is to be mounted for uranium enrichment activities. According to the journalists, Iran is ready to sanction the installation of such cameras only outside the premises in which the centrifuges will be located. This will prevent IAEA inspectors from observing the enrichment process and exercise control over it, which, in its turn, runs counter to the Agreement on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons to which Iran is a signatory. It remains unclear where specifically the additional cameras have been installed. In other words, it means that it has been impossible to allay the fears of the world community and the nuclear crisis is still continuing. In addition to that, Iraq threatens to grow into an increasingly serious problem. Statements by US President George Bush have been extensively quoted in the media. The US leader has issued an order "to rigorously counteract" Iran's activity in Iraq. However, opposition is mounting in Europe as well. The German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is making a tour of the Middle East, has delivered a report on European foreign policy at the Strategic Research Center in the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Abu-Dhabi. The president of the European Union lambasted the policy of the Iranian and Syrian administrations and accused them of countering the efforts towards building stability in the Middle East. She also blasted Iran's nuclear program, pointed to its destabilizing role for the Middle East and stressed that the interference of Tehran and Damascus had adversely affected the domestic political situation in Lebanon.

At the same time, she urged the international community to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem in a peaceful way. "We must not promote a military option because there is no military solution to the Iranian crisis," she said. Merkel indicated that the EU would never support an attack on Iran. She stated that the world community must take a single position on Iran's nuclear dossier and this position should be based on UN Security Council Resolution 1737. She also called for Iran to start cooperating, Novosti news agency reports. The German chancellor urged the international community to capitalize on the "evasive but suitable opportunity" to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Merkel spoke in favor of resuming the Middle East peace process. According to her, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the "pivotal problem which brings huge suffering to regional nations". "We need a solution which would secure the rights of both parties," Merkel said. The EU president also spoke in favor of preserving the territorial integrity of Iraq and pointed to the importance of strengthening this country's state institutions, first of all, the security force. "There are no and will never be German troops in Iraq," she said. And although officially Angela Merkel did not support war, this has again raised concerns in Iran over a quite understandable scenario: "but what if it does happen?"

One way or another, but western media are already noting that criticism of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is gaining ground in Iran. The US newspaper The Wall Street Journal in an article headlined "Failures of the Iranian President Encourage His Opponents in the Country" says that as further exacerbation in the nuclear stand-off with Iran next month is nearing, the criticism of the president in the country is growing stronger. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose remarkable victory in the presidential election 18 months ago shocked Iran's political elite, has all of a sudden come across well-coordinated attempts of his political adversaries to limit his populist economic policies and outright attacks on the West.

British newspaper The Guardian says in an article headlined "Only American Hawks Can Save the Iranian President Now" that Ahmadinejad cannot deliver on his pre-election pledges and is gradually losing public support. The controversial Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will eventually suffer defeat. His popularity rating among the Iranian electorate seems to have gone into recession, while his recent exercises of populism are bearing fruit in the form of unfulfilled promises which were made without consideration for economic realities. These realities have deteriorated even more since the introduction of UN sanctions. Ahmadinejad's absent-minded disregard for the sanctions has triggered an unprecedented reproach from the Iranian spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. He expressed the mounting concern of the political elite, including conservatives who seem to be increasingly worried over Iran's worsening international standing.

It is therefore obvious that the Iranian president has simply reached an impasse. Having initially chosen an extremely tough tone in relations with the USA and adopted the mission of a so-called "suicide bomber" ready to do anything for the triumph of justice, he can no longer afford to tone down and make concessions without risking to back off from his convictions. But on the other hand, it is becoming more difficult and dangerous to continue the confrontation with the rest of the world. Besides that, even in the 1998 election in Iran it was obvious that society was already tired of the "tough Islamic rule". This feeling is now mixed with quite understandable fear that bombs may soon start falling on people's heads.