A "ROUNDABOUT" WAY

Once again Israel has threatened Teheran that it may make a preventive strike on Iranian territory. But in the present circumstances this warning from Tel Aviv has come as something of a surprise to the world community, which is definitely hoping to achieve a diplomatic solution to the nuclear programme problem following the victory of Hassan Rouhani in the presidential elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hassan Rouhani, who is to officially take up his post as president on 3 August, is justifying his reputation as a supporter of reform, "a liberal by Iranian standards". In his statements he is calling for legislation at home to be less strict, for greater transparency  in Iranian society, and "constructive co-operation" with the rest of the world. "We need a strong society. We need to talk to people. We need to listen to what they have to say in a well-disposed manner. We need to relax the totalitarian rule of the government. If we have a powerful and competent government, this does not mean that it should control everything that happens." To the Iranians statements like this really sound almost revolutionary. The elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran openly mentions such punctilious issues as the wearing of the veil [hijab]. Stating that women who dress in strict conformity with conservative norms are not always the most modest themselves, while, on contrary, women who do not wear the hijab are not always lacking in chastity. Rouhani is also opposed to the separate education of boys and girls; he is promising to restrict censorship in the arts and cultural spheres and with regard to the Internet and the mass media; this is boosting the expectations of his reform-minded compatriots, who believe that the country is in need of serious changes.

Conservative circles, moreover, are worried whether Rouhani will be sufficiently daring and consistent to implement what he has promised, and, if he is, then to what extent would these measures actually threaten to undermine the foundations of the Islamic state. The newly elected president himself is expressing complete determination to implement his election promises and, at the same time, he is trying to uphold his point of view, his unambiguous message to the adherents of a conservative stance - that " no single group of individuals has the right to identify themselves with Islam, the revolution and the supreme leader, referring to his opponents as enemies of these values."

Nevertheless, it would be na?ve to think that Rouhani will become a kind of "father" of a hypothetically conceivable Iranian "perestroyka", a grave-digger burying the Islamic Republic, if only because he himself comes of the very flesh and blood of the revolution headed by Ayatollah Khomeini 35 years ago. He himself is a cleric, a member of the influential priesthood. The fact that he now finds himself on the pinnacle of the Iranian power pyramid only points to one thing, that the political elite in the Islamic Republic, including the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei of course, who personally approves the list of presidential candidates, is convinced that the country needs a breath of fresh air. Rouhani is precisely the one who has to take responsibility for reforming the state without encroaching on its very foundations.

This is equally true of Rouhani's foreign policy stance, as he objectively bases his considerations on the fact that Iran needs to become more open if it is to overcome the strong pressure from outside. This does not mean that Iran will give up the strategic aims it is pursuing, but it wants to achieve an international situation that is more equable to Iran. The policy being pursued by Iran's newly elected president should help to boost the formation of the latter in general.

Demonstrating the big difference between his vision of Iran's place in world politics and the approach of the previous president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hassan Rouhani is insisting that Teheran pursue "a moderate policy", which will by no means signify "subordination and capitulation". Lamenting the difficult political and economic situation that he has inherited, blaming first and foremost the consequences of the harsh sanctions imposed on Iran in conformity with the UN Security Council resolution, the newly elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran has stated: "We need to think about the future of our country, how to extricate ourselves from the situation that has taken shape, once we have preserved peace and boosted agreement and unity."

Rouhani is proposing to hold a dialogue with those opposed to him; for this purpose a new Iranian delegation is to be formed for talks with the international "six" (the USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany) on Tehran's nuclear programme. The last round of talks took place back in April, before the presidential elections in Iran.  The international negotiators and Tehran are expressing the hope that mutually agreed decisions may be reached within the framework of the new meetings. It became clear at the UN Security Council meeting of experts that achieving some kind of consensus on the Iranian issue, is, at least for the moment, in the interests of not only Iran, but also its foe the West, which is currently completely absorbed by the Middle East crisis, primarily the Syrian conflict. At this conference it was discussed whether Teheran's launching of Shahab [medium-range] ballistic missiles should be considered a violation of the UN Security Council Resolution adopted in 2010 (according to which Iran was not to undertake any kind of activity involving ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads). Many countries' experts considered that pressure on Iran should not be stepped up since the newly elected president Hassan Rouhani had promised the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme would be made more open to the international community.  This argument may be considered well founded, even though Rouhani made it quite plain that Teheran will not cease uranium enrichment.

The Iranian president elect's intention not to curtail the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear programme has given rise to serious concern in Israel where they are convinced that Teheran is trying to get a nuclear weapon. In an interview with the American CBS TV channel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that Iran's new president had criticised his predecessor for being a wolf in wolf's clothing, but that his own strategy was to be a wolf in sheep's clothing, to smile and create a bomb.

Netanyahu once again expressed his readiness to do everything necessary to protect Israel from a regime which is threatening to destroy it. The prime minister did moreover make it understood that Israel can make a unilateral strike on Iran without the USA's support. Netanyahu is, however, trying to nudge the USA into an Iran-related military decision acceptable to Israel, which may be seen as a roundabout way of achieving his aim. When the Israeli prime minister appealed to the US leadership, he told them that they should further extend the sanctions imposed on Iran. He said that, if the sanctions did not work, the Iranians must understand that the USA was prepared to resort to military action, which would be the only thing to focus their minds.

 Netanyahu went even further and warned Washington about, what Israel believes to be the danger posed to the Americans, which they completely underestimate or are not aware of themselves.  He warned that Iran is building intercontinental ballistic missiles so that it can reach the American mainland in a few years time.

It is obvious that further confrontation between Iran and Israel will be the forerunner of a much bigger conflict between the Islamic Republic and the West and will be one of the major intrigues of Hassan Rouhani's incoming presidency. Will there be the "constructive co-operation" with the whole world and the Jewish state that Hassan Rouhani is calling for or will Iran and Israel continue to express their hostility towards one another right to the very end? The answer to that question will not only depend on the new Iranian president, but also on the Israeli leadership, which, as shown by Netanyahu's statements, has absolutely no faith in any kind of lessening of tension with regard to Teheran.