SECOND WAVE

North Africa and the Middle East continue to be shaken by political upheavals. Dramatic events have gripped Egypt, Tunisia and Libya - all the countries that were at the forefront of the "Arab Spring" some time ago. However, the participants in mass protests argue that it is a continuation or the second wave of the "Arab revolution".

Egypt

The situation in Egypt has taken on the most severe forms. Since the military removed President Mohamed Morsi elected a year ago, "the country of the Pharaohs" has been almost on the verge of civil war. Mass demonstrations in support of Morsi continue in Cairo and other cities. More than 200 people have become victims of clashes between security forces and supporters of Muslim Brotherhood, one of whose leaders is the ousted president.

Despite their removal from power, Muslim Brotherhood remains the most organized and mass political force in Egypt, which, in fact, gives them grounds to believe that they have not lost the fight and are able to return Morsi to his rightful post of president. However, the military do not agree with this. In their actions they are supported by the no less impressive liberal-minded part of society that started the protest movement against Morsi, which preceded the overthrow of the president by the generals.

Up to a point, it seemed that neither the military nor Muslim Brotherhood want any, as they say, large-scale armed confrontations, not least because it is not acceptable for either side in the sense of keeping their image in the eyes of the international community. However, the longer Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters continue protests, the more relevant to the new Egyptian government is the problem of dispersing mass demonstrations. After all, the continuation of the latter clearly shows a lack of support from a large part of the people for the operation to remove Morsi and makes the new government somewhat illegitimate. Therefore, the interim government of Egypt issued a statement in which it called the perpetual street protests of Morsi supporters "a threat to national security" and instructed the Interior Ministry to take "measures to neutralize these threats".

Meanwhile, the world's leading centres are demanding an end to violence in Egypt. It is notable that the Western powers essentially endorsed the military coup in Egypt, though they avoid this phrase while evaluating the recent events. In particular, the United States openly demonstrates that it is much more preferable for them to deal with the command of the Egyptian army than with the Muslim Brotherhood government. After all, the Egyptian generals have been one of the most loyal US allies in the region since 1979 - the conclusion of the Camp David accords that approved the establishment of relations between Egypt and Israel.

The position of the European Union, which expressed serious concern about the mass civilian casualties in Egypt and arrest of Mohammed Morsi for 15 days, is also indicative. Nevertheless, the Arab media reported that EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, who visited Cairo and met with Morsi (he is held in a villa owned by one of the military structures), made it clear to the ousted president that his return to power is impossible.

Among the interested external forces, perhaps, only Turkey opposed the recognition of the new Egyptian government. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan even refused to call the Vice-President of Egypt Mohammed ElBaradei who was appointed by the military because he "did not come to power through elections".

It should be borne in mind that Ankara initially supported the "Arab revolution" that engulfed a range of long-time dictatorships in the Middle Eastern countries. However, the beginning of a new phase of the "revolution" in Egypt seems to incline the Turkish authorities to believe that the foreign adherents of the "Arab Spring" are interested not in the stabilization and prosperity of the Muslim countries but in the establishment of so-called "controlled chaos" in the region.

Tunisia

Meanwhile, the new wave of revolutionary events in Egypt (or, as ElBaradei called it - "the reset of Arab Spring") also affected Egypt's neighbour Tunisia, where, in fact, the latest practices of overthrowing Arab dictators originated (the former leader of this country Ben Ali was deposed long before his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak).

Tunisians took to the streets demanding the resignation of the Islamist government formed by the Ennahda party, a Tunisian analogue of Muslim Brotherhood. However, the Tunisian army decided not to follow the path of the Egyptian generals; the military cordoned off the central square of the capital with barbed wire and declared it a "closed military zone" in order to prevent clashes between the authorities and the opposition. The reason for mass protests in Tunisia was the murder of MP Mohamed Brahmi, who was known for his liberal views and harsh criticism of the Islamists.

The protests in Tunisia clearly foreshadow certain changes in the government. The Popular Front - an alliance of left and centrist forces - demanded the dissolution of the government and parliament, the establishment of a transitional government, the development of a new constitution and a new election.

 The government expressed its willingness to hold general elections on 17 December this year, but categorically refused to resign. At the same time, the Tunisian leadership had the opportunity (although it is based on a tragic event) to convince the liberals that Ennahda is not the worst version of an Islamist government for them. Eight Tunisian soldiers became victims of a terrorist attack committed on the border with Algeria by radical Islamists who are fighting for control of the country and do not even recognize the government of Ennahda. Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki made an appeal to fellow citizens and promised to stop the terrorists and prevent them from destabilizing the country.

Libya

The protests did not spare Libya either. After military aggression by NATO and the overthrow of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, the country was the closest to the scenario of chaos. Libya is actually split into different parts, and the Islamist leadership represented by the government of the local Muslim Brotherhood failed to restore order in the country even despite the rather harsh measures against the opposition represented by the liberals and supporters of the former dictator, the founder of the Jamahiriya that sank into oblivion.

The current deterioration of the situation in Libya also took place after the assassination of a prominent politician who had criticized the Islamists - Abdelsalam al-Mosmari. The protests in Benghazi and Tripoli, which took place against the background of civil unrest in Egypt and Tunisia, forced the head of the Libyan government, Ali Zeidan, to announce his intention to reshuffle the power structure.

Lessons from Maghreb

Thus, just a couple of years were enough for the Egyptians, Tunisians and Libyans to understand that the overthrow of a government is not enough for achieving a better life (another question whether the proper conclusions are drawn from this), especially if these attempts are undertaken with the direct involvement of external forces that pursued their vital interests rather than the interests of the peoples of the region during the "Arab revolution". The latter continue to live in conditions of a deteriorating economy and are indignant about the harsh attempts of Islamists to enforce their ideas about law and order, which are different from the aspirations of secular circles. But will the so-called second phase of the "Arab Spring" designed to remove the Islamist government doom the peoples of the Maghreb to eternal domestic conflict? It this prospect close to being implemented, taking into account the interest of some of the world centres in the Arab Middle East finally plunging into the abyss of all-out civil war and endless unrest that might result in the collapse and destruction of the states? 

This type of question leads to the conclusion that the only salvation for the peoples living through the "Arab spring" is national dialogue, the search for civil accord, which is able, if not to bring supporters of different political views to a mutual agreement, at least to prevent the Maghreb countries' slide into a scenario equally gloomy both for the local liberals and Islamists.