A 'SPEEDING UP' PROCESS

If modern Man had a Time Machine and was able to travel back some 10 million years into the past (compared with the age of the Earth this would take about a minute), then where Azerbaijan - and practically the whole of the Caucasus - now lies he would find nothing but sea. Yes, our planet's climate has changed many times, and this occurs from time to time when Ice Ages alternate with a period of global warming. Scientists have still to agree about what period we are now living in, but the majority of them are inclined to the view that global warming is on its way. However, it is not just linked with the Earth's rotation cycles - over the past 100 years environmental pollution, and principally the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the air and the destruction of the atmosphere's ozone layer, have added to this factor.

Taken together these factors are leading to the disappearance of the Earth's "ice caps" - the Arctic and the Antarctic are starting to melt, glaciers are breaking up more frequently and floating away into the vastness of the oceans. This has happened more than once: there were times when on a great part of Antarctica that is now covered by ice the weather was akin to Siberia and there were beautiful lakes, rivers and forests.  Now we are receiving with increasing frequency information that this could happen again. The melting of Antarctic glaciers is one of the important (and possible the most important) problem concerning ecologists today. 

Experts fear that within half a century almost all the coastal towns on every continent could find themselves under water. In their opinion, an increase in the sea level of just 1-2 metres will entail catastrophic consequences. Researchers have made calculations which show that unless the situation changes, within just 30 years we can expect a new Deluge. According to their findings, the whole of the eastern seaboard of the US, northern Canada, the coast of Latin America and the most inhabited part of Australia would find itself in the flood zone. And all this could occur by 2050, i.e. in 35 years' time. It points out that all the major European metropolises, coastal towns and even whole countries are in the danger zone. A global disaster could lead to 150 million climate refugees within half a century. What would happen to Azerbaijan, a large part of which lies on the Caspian Sea?

The changing Caspian

A peculiar feature of the Caspian Sea is that it is the only sea that lies below ocean level. It is the world's biggest lake because it has no outlet to the world's oceans.  Another feature of "our" sea is the sharp (from the point of view of centuries) rises and falls of this level. The real reasons for such fluctuations remain a mystery. They may be connected to the changes in the amount of water in the rivers that flow into it, seismic changes in the sea-bed, subterranean waters or, lastly, good-old climate change. According to modern research, over the course of 10,000 years the sea level has either dropped or raised by 20 metres. We know that in the first centuries AD up to the 7th century the Bay of Baku was so dry that the islands off Baku were connected to the dry land. It was no coincidence that on Ptolomey's map (2nd century AD) Baku is shown to be some way from the sea. Then from the seventh century there was a considerable rise in the Caspian right up to the 9th century, which was when the Bay of Baku was formed. But the biggest changes occurred at the end of the 17th century when the Caspian rose by over 10 metres. Marina Sanuto, an Italian geographer of the 14th century, sadly noted that the "Water level of the Caspian rises each year and most cities have flooded", and according to the geographer Abd ar-Rashid al-Bakui, in 1403 the Caspian flooded a part of Baku and the water stood near a mosque. Yes, indeed, those were the times when the waves of the sea beat against the foot of the Maiden Tower, which explains the legend about the girl who threw herself of the top of the tower into the Caspian. At that same time Sabayil Castle, which was built in the rock in the Bay of Baku, was completely under water. The sea level was high for a long time and only began to fall in the 19th century.

It was way back in 1837 that measurements began to be systematically taken of the depth of the Caspian, which remained almost unchanged right up to 1930, and it was only in 1940 that there was a sharp increase in the sea level by almost two metres. And then, in the 1970s, there was a certain fall, but in the 1990s the level of the Caspian again increased. We all saw how the water broke through the concrete slabs of the old boulevard, and in stormy weather burst through the cracks and once again rose up several metres.

Expectations

According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, the procedure for the annual prediction of the level of the Caspian is based on a calculation of the elements of the water balance, which has a 90-95 per cent element of accuracy. A long-term prediction of a change in the sea-level (5-10 years) is a very complex process, because it is dependent on climatic changes.  Even taking account of modern methods of research, reliable data can only be obtained for a period of up to 6 months. According to predictions based on regional climate change, by the 2020s an increase in the level of the Caspian by 70-80 cm is predicted.

Telman Zeynalov, the head of the Centre of Environmental Forecas-ting, does not agree that the Earth can expect serious environmental cataclysms, including the flooding of towns. The climate changes on Earth are not linked with the melting of the glaciers, he believes. "All climatic fluctuations are cyclical and are linked with solar activity," the expert says. "Such fluctuations occur every 40-50 years. At the period when the Sun is "in dormancy" the Earth heats itself and there is what is known as the greenhouse effect. The increase in fresh water as a result of the melting of the glaciers, on the other hand, cools the atmosphere. There are two factors that influence climate - the aforementioned solar activity and the activity of the warm Atlantic current El Nino. 

Its early emergence in January led to heavy rainfall in northern countries, whereas in the south it has been very hot.  As a result of observations in recent years, it is not difficult to reveal the trends caused by nature: a frosty winter is followed by a freak hot summer.  

"The situation of 50-degree heat, which we are currently witnessing, is nothing new," the scientist says. "In the middle of the second half of the 20th century - the 50s and the 60s - we had the same picture: harsh frosts and an unbearably hot summer. But this didn't affect the sea levels."

As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, these rather normal periodic half-century fluctuations have not seriously concerned us. The level of the Caspian increased by 2.5 metres from 1985 to 1997, and in the period from 2013 to 2020 it could increase by another metre. But this process won't happen in one go, but over a long period. So, in any event the people of Baku will have plenty of time to prepare for it.

The human factor

Unlike the Azerbaijani expert Zeynalov, the Russian ecologist and co-chairman of the international ecological group Ekozashchita! (Ecodefence) Vladimir Slivyak is much less optimistic. Talking to R+ Slivyak said that no-one disputes that there is climate change on Earth. "The vast majority of climatologists agree that the human factor is the determinant one in this process. In other words, man is today making the decisive contribution to the rapid increase in temperature on Earth and the speeding up of the process of climate change - that is a scientific fact. There is no doubt about that if you compare the data on carbon gas emissions by man and the data on the rise in the global temperature on the planet.  

Of course, there have been different periods on the planet - warming and cooling, but not so rapidly.  But today, when man, through his greenhouse gas emissions is gradually accelerating the process of climate change, people and other living things on the planet will simply not be able to adapt. That is why it is predicted that by the middle of the century about 30 per cent of life forms may disappear, a part of the Earth will disappear under water and many island states will be threatened with extinction, and these are by no means the only and not even the worst consequences of the climate change that threatens mankind. In other words, the very big problem is that we have sharply accelerated the process of climate warming and are now paying a great price for this. And mankind still doesn't even realize how huge this price will be," the ecologist says.

However, the most negative consequences can soon be averted, he believes, if we start to seriously reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere on a global scale. "The point here is that the question of abolishing subsidies for companies engaged in the production and sale of fossil fuels (oil producers, and so on) is already being discussed at international level. If there is a broad international consensus on the question of reducing greenhouse gas emissions such companies will suffer most of all and lose a great deal of money," he said.

Measures on adapting to the predicted climate changes are also playing an active part. When drawing up a policy all states will in one way or another have to proceed from the threat of the disastrous consequences of climate change and take all possible measures to adapt to them. "There is also an alternative - to do nothing and hope that everything will pass. But that is the thinking of people who do not understand the scale of the threat. The government of the Maldives, which could find itself completely submerged, would not dream of disputing climate change and its human factor.  The CIS could learn something from this small, but very wise country. Because if we do nothing then the Maldives will be one of the first to disappear and then the line will continue on up to you and me. And this could happen not within a thousand years, but already in the 21st century," the expert concluded.