"COMPLETE CHAOS"

Poland, the last bastion on the migrants' path, has fallen under the onslaught of the refugees from the Middle East and North Africa. The only country in the European Union to categorically refuse to accept refugees has reluctantly agreed to take several hundred Arabs, Tuaregs, Afghans and others. For the moment, the EU member-countries cannot answer the main question, namely how to stem the flow of migrants?

A few days ago, European Union member-countries' interior ministers passed a decision by a majority of votes on the distribution of 120,000 refugees throughout the territory of the European Union. The plan is expected to come into force over the next two years. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary opposed this. Finland abstained from voting.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico refused to recognise the quotas for the distribution of the migrants, calling the European Union's action a dictate. I would rather a lawsuit were filed against Slovakia (by the EU) than respect this dictate by the majority," Fico stated. He accused the majority in the EU Council of showing contempt for the rational arguments, owing to which it had become impossible to reach a consensus. In response, French President Francois Hollande threatened sanctions against the EU countries that reject the distribution of migrants according to a quota system. The French president also recalled that Western Europe had previously rendered enormous support to the states of the former socialist camp. "Even if some of them did not vote, the decision was taken by the majority, and those who voted against will take refugees," he stressed.

We in Azerbaijan know all too well about the troublesome problem of refugees, even if they are our fellow countrymen. And what can one say about refugees of different ethnicity and religious beliefs. The well-known Polish political scientist and publicist Lukasz Jasina spoke to Regionplus about what is happening in Europe today, whether it is the beginning of the end of civilisation or just another social crisis.

- Europe has turned out to be powerless to stem the flow of refugees who have practically forged a "green corridor" through to Germany. Is there an effective way to stop this flow? Won't migration in such numbers lead to changes in the systems within the EU?

- The problem is that no-one in Western, Eastern or Southern Europe knows whether the main European institutions such as the Council of Europe, the European Commission and other structures are monitoring the flow of refugees. Seeing what is happening in Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia and other states, the Central and East European countries no longer trust the pan-European institutions which are asserting that there is no migration crisis and that there are "certain difficulties with resettling the refugees". It looks as if the pan-European structures are simply not aware for the moment that Europe is facing an unprecedented immigration crisis.

- If there is no realisation of what is happening, then the situation is threatening to develop in an extremely unpredictable manner. They say that many millions from Nigeria and Chad and Arabs from Yemen where war is also being waged are preparing to set out for Europe…

- There is already talk of a potential six million migrants, first and foremost from the Arab countries of North Africa such as Algeria, Morocco and others. The current system is not ready to face such challenges, either from a political or an economic point of view. To quote the Ukrainians, that will be "complete chaos". At the present time, the most important problem is not that of how big the flow of refugees is, but the conflict arising from the dispute among the major countries of Europe like Germany and the East European countries regarding who should accept refugees and who should pay for their upkeep.

At least the refugees are not interested in going to the countries of Eastern and Central Europe such as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. But Germany, Great Britain and other West European countries are trying to foist part of the responsibility and the burden for accepting refugees onto their eastern neighbours. Poland has stated that it agrees to take refugees, but the opposition parties, and most importantly, the Polish public, are categorically opposed to this decision. The government is creating quite a few problems for itself in taking a decision that is unpopular with the public a month before the elections.

- The Germans welcomed the refugees with flowers so why are the Poles so afraid of them?

- Poland wants stability. Many Poles live in Europe and are familiar with the manifestations of religious fundamentalism and extremism which exist in West European countries. This is why the Poles are afraid of the influx of migrants. The population of countries like Poland and Hungary fear that ghettos may take shape in their countries like those in France and Great Britain; they are scared of acts of terrorism and of losing what they gained from the dismantling of the socialist camp. 

- How great is the risk of IS [Islamic State], "Al-Qaeda", "Taliban" and other terrorists infiltrating into Europe along with the refugees?

-It is quite natural that members of terrorist organisations like "Islamic State" and the Taliban may infiltrate into Europe along with the hundreds of thousands of refugees and people fleeing war and deprivation. But we are primarily relying on the experience of the European counter-terrorism special services. Secondly, judging by the organisers of the terrorist acts in the USA and Europe in the past, the threat of terrorism does not emanate from the recently arrived migrants, but from second-generation religious radicals, from those Arabs, Pakistanis and Afghans who were born in Europe and grew up there.

- Judging from the "eastern quarters" in the suburbs of Paris and London, people originating from the Middle East and Asia are not inclined to integrate into the society in the countries where they live. The birth-rate among the migrants is increasing, and the Arab, Pakistani and Turkish communities remain closed. Won't that lead to the growth of xenophobia and a strengthening of the positions of the far-right forces in Europe?

-It is quite natural to expect that the positions of the far-right forces will grow stronger. Against the backdrop of a wave of mass migration, the success of the chairman of the Nation Front headed by Marine Le Pen is to be predicted at the elections in France, which are to be held in two years' time. The popularity of the right-wing parties in Germany and the countries of Central Europe like the Czech Republic and Hungary will also increase.

- Some western politicians say that the migration crisis is the result of the USA's foreign policy (the military actions in Iraq, Afghanistan and the support for the Syrian opposition), so the USA bears some of the blame for what has happened…

- It is not only the USA that is to blame, but the European countries too. France played an active part in the military campaign in Libya and in supporting the Syrian opposition. Let's say, Poland rendered support to the USA in the military operation in Iraq and Afghanistan. The problem is that the USA is no longer interested in supporting the European Union. Barack Obama has seriously distanced himself from European problems. This can be seen from the USA's lack of involvement in settling the Ukrainian crisis. Obama does not want to damage relations with Russia. All the responsibility for what has happened has been firmly placed on Europe's shoulders. This is a European-American relations' problem.

- What do you think of the idea that the countries of Europe only stand to gain from the migration because the birth-rate in Europe is falling and the number of pensioners is increasing. In 2030 the migrants will be the main mass of working people in the countries of Western Europe, won't they?

-The problem of demography and the opportunities to live and work are two different issues. In Europe, following the economic crisis only a few Western European countries can offer migrants jobs. As far as Eastern Europe is concerned, for example, Poland, three to four million Poles have emigrated to other states to earn money. It is quite possible that the migrants may solve the population problem to a certain extent, but most countries do not have the possibility to provide the migrants with housing and money and make their life better than it was in the Middle East.

Regarding the prospects for economic development, migration will be a big advantage to the FRG, but a big disadvantage to other countries.

- The refugees came to Europe somehow in an unexpectedly organised and coordinated manner. Doesn't this point to an agenda here, namely to swamp Europe with an unprecedented wave of migrants?

- The idea that there is some sort of agenda and the migrants were given orders to surge into Europe is a very popular one among the right-wing forces. Hypothetically, the monarchs of the Persian Gulf could pursue such an agenda. But for the moment there is no convincing evidence that the migration crisis is somehow being manipulated.

- Some EU countries have already imposed restrictions on freedom to cross their internal borders. Hungary generally intends to fence itself off with a wall. Could this lead to the abolition of the Schengen Agreement?

- Hungary plans to construct a system identical to the "Berlin wall" on the frontier with Serbia, Romania and Croatia and possibly with Austria. The most disappointing thing for us was the decision of the German chancellor to temporarily halt freedom of movement between the FRG and Austria. Understandably, if the temporary decision turns out to be an effective one, then why not make the temporary decision a permanent one. We are hoping that the Schengen Agreement will be reinstated, in spite of the migration crisis. Freedom of movement is a fundamental principle of a united Europe. If we do not manage to gain the upper hand in this crisis, then it will be the end of the European Union.