THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE EU IS ACTING UP

Germany is often called the economic driving force of the EU, but this country is also an important element that fastens together the political and organizational structure of the union and to some extent is a model bearer of fundamental pan-European values. It is often not Brussels officials but German Chancellor Angela Merkel that is seen in international arenas as the leader of the united Old World. Other Western European "grandees", like Britain or France, either prefer staying away from the EU or do not have (or do not drive) such extensive pan-European ambitions. It is therefore Germany that is now expected to have the final say about exactly how Europe's largest migration crisis since World War Two should be tackled. It is also Germany that assumes the main role in defending EU interests in talks with the United States on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership agreement (TTIP).

Lately, however, Berlin is increasingly more seen in the news not because of ideas it expresses as leader, but because of large protests and international controversy. Middle-class people, the traditional burghers, who have always been the most stable and most secure segment of the population, have started to speak out. They have started to feel that way increasingly less, therefore they are increasingly more vocal about their fears regarding the implications of the TTIP, and the influx of tens of thousands of migrants into the country. It is not surprising that against this background, Merkel is rapidly losing political capital. Estimates published by Forsa and INSA, centres for public opinion polls, suggest that the approval ratings of the chancellor's party - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - have fallen to a record low since the last election in 2013. According to another survey, only 34 per cent of Germans believe that Merkel would deserve a Nobel Prize, while 61 per cent of respondents think the opposite. A total of 80 per cent of leftists, 77 per cent of the Greens, and 63 per cent of the Social Democrats think that Merkel would not deserve it. The chancellor, who is to lead her country and the whole European Union through very important and, perhaps, even momentous decisions, has been criticized increasingly more often. Will Merkel and her associates have enough domestic and foreign resources to manage the challenges?

"Dieselgate" as a lever 

of blackmail

Tens of thousands of people from all over Germany took to the streets of Berlin on 10 October to show their negative attitude to the planned conclusion in 2016 of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement between the EU and the USA, which is to establish one of the world's largest free zones, uniting 850m consumers. The Angela Merkel government, the CDU/CSU faction in the Bundestag, and heads of domestic large companies are confident that the agreement will bring undoubted benefits to Germany, lessening bureaucratic barriers, abolishing many taxes, creating millions of new jobs, ensuring inflow of investment and lowering consumer prices. Merkel constantly reminds people that the United States is an important sales market for Germany. However, opponents of the agreement argue that the main beneficiaries would be US companies, which dream of absolutely unimpeded access to 450m European consumers. This will be an agreement of many advantages, but… under the leadership of the United States. For example, the Confederation of German Trade Unions (DGB) is talking about risks for the environment and local government, and erosion of traditional boundaries in consumption culture and gastronomy, and an opportunity for the United States to influence the EU's monetary policy. However, it is especially wary of a decline in environmental and food standards - appearance of chlorinated chicken, trans fats and GMOs. Ordinary citizens are alarmed by the fact that the talks between the EU and the USA are mainly held behind closed doors. Especially nervous are small and medium-sized businesses, who realize that labour force and other production costs in the United States are lower. An anti-TTIP petition at stop-ttip.org has now received 3,264,000 votes, and among them there is a considerable number of German citizens (about a half, according to surveys).

A coincidence or not, but Merkel is more concerned about problems with the car manufacturer Volkswagen than burghers and farmers' fear. An investigation was launched in the USA against the German car giant after the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) accused it of equipping its diesel cars with software that understated actual emissions of harmful substances. Large fines and damages started looming over the company. However, financial losses are not the only threat that stems from the trouble Volkswagen is in. The company's image has been damaged, and this undermines the standing of the Europeans in their TTIP negotiations with the United States. This was clearly stated by EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom. After all, it is because of the "dieselgate" that the Americans can now directly say that the vaunted European environmental standards are not that perfect at all. However, Germany took the main blow, and this worries Merkel in a much stronger way than the disgruntled people in the streets of the German capital, even though the demonstrators hoisted on a self-propelled platform an image of her igniting the fuse of a bomb placed on the roof of a building called "democracy".

Gallows "reserved"

However, the chancellor was much luckier at that rally. Activists in the protest held by thousands of opponents of the inflow of migrants to Germany in Dresden on 12 October brought an improvised gallows with these inscriptions on it - reserved for Angela Merkel and Sigmar Gabriel (vice-chancellor). The protesters chanted slogans calling for the resignation of the chancellor and the immediate deportation of all migrants. The protest was organized by the movement PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the Occident), founded in late 2014 on the wave of protest that followed the terrorist attack on the office of Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris. Followers of PEGIDA show discontent with the growing number of Muslim refugees in Europe and call for tougher immigration laws. There is a mutual antipathy between PEGIDA and Merkel - she considers them a threat, while they say that the chancellor is turning their country into a "camp in the jungle". A leader of the organization, Tatjana Festerling, called Merkel "the most dangerous woman in Europe".

The premise for Festerling's statement was that, according to various estimates, Germany will receive about 1.5m refugees this year, and these are only official numbers. Merkel is confident that Germany will be able to accept all people fleeing war, even despite the fact that the authorities in many federated states have long maintained that they have run out of resources to receive and accommodate new refugees. Merkel has even been criticized by fellow party members: heads of district offices of the CDU, mayors and members of landtags wrote to the chancellor that the "open borders policy" is not in line with either European or German law. "Given the line pursued by the CDU in the federal government on migration policy, most members of our party and voters no longer feel they are represented," the letter says. In turn, Horst Seehofer, the prime minister of Bavaria and head of the Christian Social Union, which is part of the ruling coalition, said that Munich is ready to file a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court over a violation of its rights.

Such shocks inevitably lead to changes in domestic political life. It is for this reason that when new political forces that express intolerant points of view, one hears increasingly more often the view that the habitual party system in Germany (CDU, the Social Democrats, the Greens) gets reformatted. All of this also undermines Germany's standing no less than the "dieselgate" does. Taking advantage of its financial situation, Germany has got used to setting the tone in the EU and it often has the final say. However, the migrant crisis shows that for Germany's neighbours there are even more terrifying things than lack of money. Joint solutions are needed to resolve the crisis, but these decisions are taking too long to appear.

At first sight it seems that all that Berlin needs is financial capacity to digest the flow of migrants and integrate them into German society. However, Merkel has apparently forgotten that she said just a few years ago that the policy of multiculturalism had suffered a failure in her country. It is even more unclear how she intends to address this issue now. It is therefore not surprising that PEGIDA to a certain extent has the sympathy of many German nationals. The influx of migrants may change the religious and ethnic composition of Europe, and people understand this. Perhaps it is not such a bad thing, but the fact is that nobody asked them for their agreement to it, something that should be the case in a democratic country. In addition, the middle class does not want to pay taxes out of which unemployment benefits would be paid to the migrants, and this is something that they are trying to tell Merkel, unsuccessfully so far.

Rallies like those that brought people together against TTIP and the influx of migrants - large ones and in the city centre, are obviously ready to grow even larger. Protests are openly gaining popularity, as the gap between the government's intentions and the wishes of German voters seems to get increasingly deeper. Germany is facing a major domestic crisis that may also uncover many foreign policy problems, ones that not only Berlin but the entire EU is experiencing.