THE INTIFADA OF KNIVES

About a month ago, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict again - and quite predictably - entered another phase of severe exacerbation, when terrorist attacks and harsh responses to them by Tel Aviv began to occur almost daily on the territories controlled by Israel, as well as in Jerusalem, at the entrances to and in the alleys of the Old City. The attacks are in the form of isolated assaults by Palestinians, mostly armed with knives and axes, and driving into pedestrians including at bus stops. As a rule, such terrorists are shot dead on the spot by Israeli security guards. Israeli security forces have also used the tactics of demolishing houses of Palestinians involved in attacks - a method that was used in the early 2000s, when more than 660 buildings and structures were destroyed. Many observers have dubbed a series of Palestinian attacks on soldiers, police officers and passers-by the "Jerusalem intifada" or "knife intifada". The list of victims on both sides is growing - according to official media reports, nine Israelis and more than 50 Palestinians have been killed, while the number of injured is much higher.

Officially, violence was triggered off by the controversial status of the al-Aqsa mosque, Islam's third-holiest site. Arabs try to prevent Jews from praying on the Temple Mount, which is adjacent to the Wailing Wall, while Israeli police restrict entry to the Temple Mount for Palestinian young people. The mosque is situated on the Temple Mount which also accommodates in close proximity to each other a number of objects and places that are important to Christianity and Judaism. For a person who is not familiar with the historical details of the Arab-Israeli conflict and has never been in Jerusalem, it is difficult to understand what is happening because the holy places changed their rulers ever so often and the number of various skirmishes and mutual, sometimes completely illogical and surprising prohibitions was far too great. Both sides carry out endless restoration, excavation and construction works, which allows their opponents to speak about the intent to destroy exactly their shrine, thereby inspiring believers to new protests.

Now many officials are talking about the danger of the current situation, which is already difficult enough, turning into a religious conflict, although this does not seem to present a real threat because, unfortunately, the holy sites are just a pretext. Had there been no dispute about them, there would be another reason for disagreement. As reported by Israeli and Western media, the rapid spread of attacks carried out by lone-wolf avengers has surprised both Israeli police and the domestic security agency Shin Bet. Attackers are not registered in the terrorist database; they are too young to be "veterans" of the second intifada. However, it is argued that the "third intifada" has come as a surprise to Palestinian authorities, too. They have lost control over discontent and frustration of young Palestinians with arrangements for never-ending political settlement which brings them nothing but hopeless life in an enclosed enclave behind the dividing walls, without much prospect to escape from there. As many as 75 per cent of Arabs of East Jerusalem live below the poverty line, lacking basic amenities such as clean water, garbage collection, etc. Palestinian youths have witnessed the lives of their fathers, who have grown old waiting for a solution to this problem. According to the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, 65 per cent of Palestinians do not believe that the two-states-for-two-peoples solution will ever become a reality, and the number of such unbelievers has increased by 10 per cent since the beginning of this summer. The new intifada is supported by more than half the population of the autonomy.

Against this background, the popularity of Mahmoud Abbas, who was expected to make a strong statement from the rostrum of the UN General Assembly in New York, is decreasing dramatically. It looks as if the leader begins to loose his vigour - because of his age, political fatigue, etc. - and this is noticeable even to his Fatah supporters. Abbas said that he no longer felt himself bound by the peace agreements negotiated in Oslo, which called, among other things, for the prevention of terrorism and other forms of violence. This statement seems to be desperate, like when a person does not know what to do with one's own words, and most importantly, what consequences they may involve. However, the agreements really hit a brick wall because the solution of such problems as the status of Jerusalem, the future of Jewish settlements and the refugee problem was postponed for a later period, and these are the main stumbling block to a final settlement of the conflict. The situation is further complicated by the lack of visible progress towards agreement between Fatah and Hamas, which makes it impossible to develop a common Palestinian position.

The gradual and admittedly painful departure of Abbas from the political arena does exacerbate the situation, but then Israeli leader Netanyahu is also losing popularity. More and more Israeli experts believe that the prime minister does not know how to respond to the current outbreak of violence. Moreover, at the most critical moment, when any signal of the willingness to compromise is important, Netanyahu, speaking at a conference of the Zionist Congress in Jerusalem, unexpectedly announced that the primary responsibility for the extermination of the Jews during World War II lay - not with Adolf Hitler, but with Haj Amin al-Husseini, the then Mufti of Jerusalem and spiritual leader of the Palestinians. Allegedly, Hitler did not plan to kill the Jews and was just going to drive them out of Europe, but al-Husseini persuaded him to start burning Jews alive. Haj Amin al-Husseini is a controversial personality and his biography can amount to a heavy book, but in this context, one moment is of special interest - it is due to the Mufti that the Temple Mount has become a national symbol for the Palestinians.

Interestingly, that was not the first time Netanyahu raised the subject, trying to prove his version of how the Jewish question was solved in Europe occupied by the Nazis. However, not all Jews agree with Netanyahu - for example, Isaac Herzog, the leader of the Zionist Camp opposition party, and Defence Minister Moshe Ya'alon, who is Netanyahu's associate in the Likud ruling party, expressed their categorical protest. In their view, Netanyahu diminishes the memory of the victims and the scope of the disaster itself. In the current situation, many reviewers considered the prime minister's words no less provocative than the words of Hassan Yousef, one of the founders of Hamas, that the al-Aqsa mosque and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who urged Palestinian youth to new attacks, should be protected at all costs. In turn, Secretary-General of the Palestinian National Authority Saeb Erekat said the Israeli prime minister hates the Arabs so much that he is ready to blame them even of the Holocaust. The UN called Netanyahu's words "unthinkable". Even Berlin responded by recalling that "the responsibility for the Holocaust of European Jews lies with Germany, and there is no need to change the version of this issue".

Critics of Netanyahu are getting increasingly vociferous about the fact that he does not understand the current situation and continues to rely on older methods which not only have been ineffective for a long time but also exacerbate the state of affairs. Consequently, radical sentiments are growing both among Palestinians and in Israeli society. For instance, military-minded former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, who participated in the elections demanding the capital punishment for terrorists, is gaining in popularity. Of particular concern are calls to Israeli citizens to arm themselves in self-defence. The government promotes this idea as much as it can, by lowering prices and simplifying methods of obtaining a license to carry a weapon. Social networks contain calls to kill on the spot all Arabs who look suspicious, that is, in fact, carry out reprisals. Hysteria is being whipped up among the Israeli public, which is noted by a number of local journalists.

The danger of such a response to terror lies if only in the fact that errors are inevitable. It was due to such an error that an Eritrean immigrant, which was mistaken for an accomplice to the terrorist who opened fire at the Beersheba bus station, died a few days ago. The young man was first wounded from a pistol by a security guard of the bus station, then kicked by passers-by, and later died of his injuries in hospital. In a few days, a Jew was shot dead by soldiers after a skirmish in Jerusalem. He was a 28-year-old immigrant from Dagestan who was also mistaken for a terrorist.

In this situation, there is nothing to do but to rely on outside assistance. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was the first to extend a helping hand. Although no-one pays much heed to exhortations of secretaries-general, the words of Ban Ki-moon who, as part of his unscheduled visit to the region, called on Israelis and Palestinians not to slip into a "dangerous abyss" have seemingly irritated both sides. Hackneyed phrases - to the effect that "security measures" should be geared towards "defusing the situation before people die" and that "improper use of force leads to more violence" - were justly met with misunderstanding by the Israelis, who can be assailed with a knife in any place. Palestinians, on the other hand, have once again received a confirmation from Ban Ki-moon that he knows their "hopes for peace have been dashed countless times", hence they are right. The UN Secretary-General stressed that he understands the negative feelings of the Arabs caused by the inability of the international community to put an end to "this occupation". It seems, however, that Ban Ki-moon does not know what should be done specifically.

Much more hope is pinned on US Secretary of State John Kerry, who embarked on a trip to several countries in Europe and the Middle East just at the height of the event. Strained relations between Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama are no secret, as the Israeli prime minister believes that Obama has been, to put it mildly, very wrong in bringing Iran into the international arena. In turn, the White House accused Netanyahu this spring of an attempt to marginalize Israeli Arabs during the elections. Meanwhile, Kerry is considered to be the man in Obama's team who understands the desires and claims of the Jews most of all, therefore his being in the thick of events indicates a serious concern on the part of Washington. Despite all differences, Israel remains the main pillar of the United States in the Middle East, and this is evident if only by the size of military aid from Washington. Kerry was unable to hold a trilateral meeting with Abbas and Netanyahu, but after his talks with the Israeli prime minister in Berlin, the US Secretary of State expressed "cautious optimism" about the fact that "there may be a way to defuse the situation and move forward". Both Kerry and Netanyahu again called to stop incitement. It should be noted once again that neither incitement nor the holy sites with uncertain status have anything to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; it is flaring up because of a lack of genuine political steps and perspectives. What is now required at the very least is the resumption of direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

And this must be done as soon as possible, because the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is dangerous in that it is in close proximity to the Syrian front, with intertwined interests of many parties including those hostile to Israel, such as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah group, which can significantly grow in strength as a result of participation in the conflict. Another dangerous aspect is the proximity of the Islamic State (IS) group, which has actually ignored the most urgent problem of the Middle East for a very long time. Israeli media recently published information prepared by the analytical department of the General Security Service, or Shabak, which suggests that some Israeli Arabs not only joined the IS extremist group, but also went abroad to undergo a course of military training for jihad. However, they may possess strategically important data about Israel, which can be used in the preparation of terrorist attacks. Israeli intelligence agencies are also concerned about the penetration of Salafi ideology into Israel. It follows from the document that certain Syrian groups "encourage Israeli Arabs and urge them to take part in jihad," saying that "the Jewish state must be destroyed" and then a free Palestine will join the caliphate which the IS is trying to establish on the territory of Iraq and Syria. It would seem that such a threat cannot possibly exist because the IS declared Hamas an enemy. But in circumstances when Palestinians are beginning to be disappointed with Fatah and Hamas, nothing seems impossible. For those who yearn for justice in their own understanding, what are paramilitary brigades of Hamas compared to the IS? Who would they bet on? Perhaps current actions of Palestinian terrorists seem to be spontaneous because they really are not coordinated by anyone other than propaganda videos in social networks that promote the ideology of the Islamic State. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has entered a dangerous phase and may get a very different context and a different dimension.