THE NEW NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE

After the disaster at the "Fukushima-1" nuclear power plant in Japan on 11 March 2011, it appeared to many that the fate of nuclear power had been sealed. At the time of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant 448 power-generating units were in operation throughout the world with an established capacity of 380,500 megawatts, but after the accident a number of nuclear reactors in Japan, German and Great Britain were shut down.

But this decline will not go on for long. After the catastrophe at the "Fukushima" nuclear power plant in Japan, the fear of nuclear energy remains a thing of the past. A new nuclear renaissance is being observed at this time, all the more so since the world has set about actively grappling with climate change. According to IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] Director Yukiya Amano, nuclear energy is the most promising trend in alleviating the consequences of climate change within the framework of the UN framework convention on climate change.

At the present time there are 438 nuclear reactors operating with a capacity of something like 379,000 megawatts in 30 countries. In total, all the nuclear power plants generate 11 per cent of all the world's electricity.

Yu. Amano has noted that 67 new nuclear reactors are currently under construction in the world, two-thirds of which are located in Asia. Today the largest number of nuclear reactors are operating in the USA (99 generating units), with France in second place (58 generating units). Nuclear power plants are operating reliably in each European country. In Europe they make it possible to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by approximately 700m tonnes. Ten nuclear power plants (all in all 34 generating units) are operating in Russia, making it possible to cut carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere by approximately 210m tonnes. 

It is moreover not only the Asian countries that are staking on the development of nuclear power plants. Whereas the USA, the world leader in the established capacity of nuclear power stations, is reducing the number of its installed nuclear reactors, France has no intention of rejecting nuclear power. In France nuclear power is a national priority, and according to the data for 2014 it accounts for 77 per cent of the overall volume of electricity generated. 

According to some experts' estimates, the amount of nuclear-generated electricity may almost double in output by 2030.

 The European nuclear forum (Foratom) believes that at the present time interest in nuclear energy has markedly increased, and, if electricity generation is to remain on its current level, the European Union will need to commission at least more than100 nuclear-powered generating units in the period up to 2050 to replace those that will have gone out of service.

Russia is another important player on the nuclear power plant market. The first nuclear power station in the world was built in Russia, during the period of the USSR and a five-megawatt reactor was started up in Obninsk in June 1954. Russia currently ranks fourth after the USA, France and Japan, in the number of its nuclear facilities and established capacities; it has nuclear-powered generating units with an established capacity of approximately 42,400 megawatts.

The Russian Federation is also active on the world nuclear power plant market. The "Rosatom" corporation has a considerable portfolio of orders for the construction of nuclear power stations in several countries.

Today the geography of Russia's nuclear power plant construction looks extremely impressive - Turkey, Iran, China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and so forth. This list is quite sufficient to provide a general picture of the prospects for the growth of the nuclear industry.

"In total, the "Rosatom" corporation's portfolio of orders has increased 5.5-fold over a few years, amounting to 300bn dollars," the state corporation's head, Sergey Kiriyenko, has stated.

The "Rosatom" corporation has a portfolio of orders for 30 generating units at nuclear power plants in 12 countries. At the same time, talks are under way with five countries on the construction of more than 10 nuclear power plant generating units.  

"When we sign a contract with a country, this means that the construction will be completed in from seven to 10 years, if there are two to four generating units. In the contracts we guarantee that they will operate for 60 years, but we know from our own experience that they will definitely keep going for 80-100 years.  Our charges begin at 5bn dollars and more for the construction of each generating unit, depending on what technologies and investments are required and how long the construction will take. This price is doubled if it includes provision of fuel throughout the life of the power plant, servicing of the machines and equipment and decommissioning of the power plant," Kiriyenko stated.

The Russian technologies are by no means inferior to Western ones and are also more efficient and considerably cheaper. This factor is most probably the most important argument persuading developing countries to choose Russia to build a nuclear power plant on a turnkey basis.

The nuclear sector in Russia boasts a mighty complex of 400 enterprises and organisations employing more than 260,000 people.

Moreover, if we take into account the forthcoming commissioning of nuclear reactors at new nuclear power plants, then their number will reach 49, but even in the event of Japan continuing to reject nuclear energy development, Russia will not even make it into third place in the number of its nuclear power generating units.

China may become the leading producer of nuclear-generated electricity. By the end of 2014, 23 nuclear reactors were operating in the People's Republic of China [PRC]; another 26 generating units are under construction and 39 reactors are projected. The PRC is thus counting on bringing its number of nuclear reactors up to 88 power-generating units.

Thus, in the years to come China will overtake the USA and become a world leader in nuclear-powered electricity generation. The fact is that within its resources, the number of nuclear reactors in the USA is being reduced every year. Of the existing 99 reactors in the USA, half were commissioned in the mid-1970s, which means they have largely come to the end of their working life. Only five new nuclear power plants are being built to replace them.

But the new trends connected with the boom in nuclear power plants in the world are coupled with the threat of the nuclear reactors being operated at the expense of the developing countries in the world. In this connection the IAEA needs to develop techniques to ensure the safe operation of nuclear power plants in the event of political destabilisation of the situation in developing countries. This means preventing extremists from getting hold of nuclear fuel and making it possible for experts to shut down a nuclear reactor, should there be any kind of threat, to prevent another catastrophe in the world like the ones at the "Chernobyl" and "Fukushima" nuclear plants.