THE NEW "GREAT GAME"

Over the last few years the USA has markedly lost interest in Central Asia, but a new stage in relations possibly began for Central Asia this autumn. This conclusion is based on US Secretary of State John Kerry's trip to the region. This is not only his first trip to Central Asia in his time in office, but he is the first Secretary of State to visit the five Central Asian countries, namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkme-nistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as part of a single tour. The region was last visited by Hillary Clinton who is currently former Secretary of State. 

According to official information, Kerry's visit was focused on regional and global security issues and bilateral ties between the USA and the countries of the region. This is the reason at first sight. The main reason, which is not being voiced, lies in the White House's concern about the influence that Russia and particularly of late China is exerting on Central Asia. Central Asia has historically been an intersection of the political, military and business interests of Russia, China, Turkey and the West (in the 19th century of Great Britain, and now largely of the USA), but this region is precisely of interest to Moscow and Beijing, it may even be said of vital importance to them. 

The fact is that for China close cooperation with the Central Asian countries is a serious factor relating to energy security. Beijing has bilateral cooperation with each of the countries and also operates within the framework of its own "Silk Road Economic Belt" project. Considerable activity by Chinese companies can be observed in the region, ranging from oil and gas fields, gold, silver and boron mining, as well as in the construction of infrastructure facilities and so forth. For 

Russia Central Asia is of extreme importance from the point of view of national security. This results from its proximity to Afghanistan, from which there is not only a direct threat in the form of the "Taliban", but also the underground influences on various radical groupings already present in Central Asia. These problems have exacerbated as a result of the withdrawal of the main NATO contingent from Afghanistan and also with the appearance on the scene of the Islamic State [IS] grouping.

Of late the "Taliban" has unleashed an offensive on the major cities. At the end of September the city of Kunduz was captured which is not far from the frontier with Tajikistan. According to information from Tajikistan's State Committee for National Security, since the beginning of 2015, the local military have managed to thwart 19 attempts at armed intrusion of the frontier. Previously, the security of the 1,344-kilometre-long Tajik-Afghan border, was ensured by the Russian military, but they later left and now there is talk of their possible return. The Russian Federation does moreover have a military base in Tajikistan manned by approximately 6,000 servicemen. Russia also has a military base in Kyrgyzstan.

Besides this, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, within the framework of which Moscow provides considerable supplies of arms and equipment. It cannot be denied that Moscow is trying to tie its Central Asian neighbour to it economically, mainly with the help of the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU] project which includes Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. For the moment these attempts do not look too encouraging, especially when compared with the scales of the Chinese efforts. Another element which has lessened Central Asia's economic dependence on (and boosted the Americans' opportunities in the region) is the crisis in Russia itself which is suffering from a drop in oil prices and from Western sanctions.

As far as the joint actions of China and Russia are concerned, they are coordinating them within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation [SCO], both from a political and security point of view. There is some cooperation in the economy. An agreement was signed on ties with the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union during the visit to Moscow by General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping.

 Geographically Central Asia is a vast land-locked region which has always joined together the different ends of the Eurasian continent. Now Russia and China are trying to revive the ancient land routes which may well be of concern to Washington, the "master of the sea routes".

This is precisely why Kerry came to Central Asia and tried to convince his colleagues that Central Asia's stability was closely linked to the USA's security. The Secretary of State has particularly noted that the USA supports the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of each of the Central Asian countries. It is noteworthy that Kerry said that each of the countries in Central Asia was the most important, in one form or another, for security, prosperity and ensuring peace in Afghanistan and support for it in the region. Incidentally, Barack Obama recently decided to retain the military contingent in Afghanistan, so for the White House cooperation in this sense with the Central Asian countries is becoming a vital necessity.

Within the framework of the same strategy the State Department recently announced new programmes of assistance to the countries of Central Asia. Financial aid will be rendered in the economy, trade and the environment. According to Kerry, the sole topic of energy security and diversification of the sources of energy would be worthy of a meeting in the circumstances that have taken shape. So, the USA has its own "New Silk Road" for the region which envisages the creation of transport and energy corridors from China and the Central Asian countries to the Black Sea. For example, within the framework of the CASA-1000 project, it is proposed that the excess electricity from the hydropower stations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan should be transferred to Afghanistan, which means the setting up of a regional electricity market.

During Kerry's visit, the USA was busy consolidating and filling up the "C5+1" space (the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries plus the USA) in practice; a joint sitting took place in [the Uzbek city of] Samarkand and the Secretary of State called it "vitally important". "A joint declaration on partnership and cooperation among the five states of Central Asia and the USA" was adopted at the meeting, which once again mentions expanding cooperation in trade, energy, logistics, improving the business climate, concerns about the environment, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and support for Afghanistan. Kerry stated that the USA would like to see Central Asia as the locomotive of growth in the heart of a modern and dynamic Asia.

Incidentally, the recent unprecedented visit to the region by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe accompanied by the representatives of dozens of major Japanese companies is in keeping with the concept of the USA's current operations in Central Asia, particularly in the effort to confront China's investment expansion. Like Kerry, Abe also visited all five Central Asian countries and let it be understood that Tokyo is ready to invest billions of dollars in the energy sector, the chemical industry, logistics, developing gas fields, rare-earth metal extraction, the nuclear industry, medicine, vocational training, the sphere of innovation and agriculture. The benefits for Japan itself, which is completely dependent on imports of oil, coal and gas, needs uranium for its extensive network of nuclear power stations and is increasingly actively being pushed out of the Asia-Pacific region by Beijing, are quite obvious. It is important for Japan to increase its investments on the Asian energy markets and not let the Chinese "Silk Road" dominate in the region. For its part, Tokyo does have something to offer, a nice little titbit, especially for Kazakhstan, and that is technology. 

Washington has also decided to step up its humanitarian presence in the region. In [the Kyrgyz capital] Bishkek Kerry opened the new campus of the American University in Central Asia. The White House is initiating new vocational and educational exchanges, a regional English-language initiative, and is also becoming involved in preserving the cultural heritage. Kerry himself said that education was the key to resolving many problems. True, it takes time for the staff trained in a particular field to develop, but it looks as if the Americans are prepared to wait. This is yet another proof that they are in no hurry to leave the region.

Thus, the White House has given Russia and China a clear signal. During his trip Kerry not only ignored the existence of the Eurasian Economic Union, but did not make too much fuss about the Silk Road Economic Belt either, stressing that the Americans want to work to create a common project, a New Silk Road that will operate from north to south. The Americans reminded Russia yet again in a leisurely fashion that in Washington they had not turned down the concept of recognising Central Asia as one of the "priority directions in American diplomacy", In spite of the fact that the American military presence in the region is being wound down, the USA has continued to donate aid to the countries in the region, as well as rendering some military technical assistance, and now a number of countries can gain advantage for themselves by playing the two powers off against each other in their confrontations.

Kerry almost showed his hand with his readiness to protest how much the Central Asian countries are allies of Moscow, the extent to which they are prepared to support Russia in issues relating to Ukraine and regarding the possible coalition against IS, as well as the extent to which they are capable of refraining from creating additional problems so to speak for the Russian Federation while it is distracted with Donbass [Ukraine] and Syria. Here the USA, which is located far from Central Asia, is in a much more advantageous position. Since the shared frontiers make the threat a common one, for Russia the guarding of the Tajik-Afghan border is not simply a matter of domination in the region, but a question of its own security, and this means that she will be forced to make an even greater sacrifice.

For their part, the countries of Central Asia want the opportunity to have room to manoeuvre, which is quite understandable. They might find themselves in a vice if they cooperate too closely with just one of the partners. The main thing is that this process does not to allow external players to make advances and helps them not to confuse their own current advantages with long-term gains. Thus, the USA does have a definite "political weak point", in that it regards Central Asia within the framework of the so-called "Greater Central Asia", the core of which they see as Afghanistan. But you see, in many ways this does not take into account the historical, geographical and cultural peculiarities and preferences of the region.

The USA does not always pay as much attention as it should to the nuances of the bilateral relations between the Central Asian states. That same CASA-1000 project may "end" the disputes regarding the rational use of energy resources in the region, but they are so acute that they are not far from a serious conflict.

Beijing is allowing Moscow to retain military and political control over the region. Russia cannot compete with China from an economic point of view, and this forced, in its own way cunning, Asian union does for the moment ensure the relatively peaceful coexistence of China and Russia. The USA wants to play its own game. It can and wants to cause rivalry between Russia and China. As the example of Japan has shown, moreover, Washington is ready to raise the stakes by drawing other players into the game. For the moment Turkey and Iran are distracted by events in the Middle East, but it looks like it is worth expecting them to join the new "Great Game" in Central Asia, and it is interesting with which bloc India will prefer to side.