AIR BATTLES

The shooting down of a Russian bomber has seriously damaged relations between Moscow and Ankara, not only from a political point of view, but also from an economic and humanitarian one. Both sides are accusing the other of the most flagrant violations of the norms of international law, although quite recently Russo-Turkish ties were recognised as strategic and were referred to as an example of how mutual economic gains can smooth out political contradictions. A constructive and productive dialogue was being conducted between Moscow and Ankara.

Turkish commodities were recognised as an important replacement for the European foods which had been rejected in response to the sanctions imposed on Russia. In spite of its NATO membership, Turkey behaved in a restrained way with regard to Russia during the events in Ukraine and especially with regard to everything relating to Crimea. The Turkish Republic has the status of a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation [SCO], where Russia plays one of the lead violins. There had been talk of Turkey and the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU] already being able to conclude an agreement on a free trade zone next year. The leaders of the two countries have maintained constant contacts. [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and [Turkish President] Recep Tayyip Erdogan met recently during the G20 summit in [the Turkish seaside resort city of] Antalya and before that during the opening ceremonies for the European Games in Baku and the opening of the Cathedral Mosque in Moscow. But now the world's media are recalling the history of the numerous wars between Russia and Turkey and are making depressing predictions.

The Su-24

On 24 November a Russian Su-24 bomber, which flew on a mission from "Khmeimim" ["Hmeimim"] military base in Syria was shot down by an "air-to-air" missile fired by a Turkish F-16 fighter plane. The aircraft crashed on the territory of Syria, the pilots ejected. The commander of the Russian crew was fired upon from the ground and killed as he was descending with his parachute. A search and rescue operation, during which a Mi-8 helicopter was shot down and a marine was killed, was launched by the Russian and Syrian forces to find the navigator.

Official Ankara stated that the Russian bomber was shot down because it violated Turkey's air space. At the Turkish General Staff they assert that the aircraft, "whose identification was initially unknown" was given 10 warnings for several minutes every two miles (3.2 km). The Su-24 did not respond to the warnings, as a result of which the Turkish military were forced to take measures to defend their air space. According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish side made every effort to avoid this turn of events. In Ankara they published a chart showing the flight path of the Russian aircraft over Turkish territory, over the "peninsula" jutting out into Syrian territory.

The Turkish media circulated an audio recording of the Turkish fighter pilots warning the Russian bomber that it was violating the country's air space. In its turn, the Turkish General Staff stated that it was prepared "to furnish any data" regarding this issue, and was also willing to cooperate with the Russian military in any way it could. Erdogan added that Turkey has no intention of exacerbating relations with Russia, and an obvious example of Ankara's long patience is the fact that until the latest incident the Turkish Air Force did not shoot down Russian aircraft that violated the country's air space. If Turkish air space is violated in this manner in the future, the military will act in just the same way. The media report that confirmation has come in from the pilot of the Middle East Airlines air company who was flying from Beirut on 24 November. The pilots provided Al Arabiya news channel with a recording on which the warnings of the Turkish military to the Russian Su-24 can be heard.

The Russian side moreover asserts that the Su-24M bomber was flying exclusively in Syrian air space all the time, did not fly over Turkish territory or receive any warnings, and "this has been recorded by objective monitoring means". The navigator Murakhtin who was rescued told Russian TV that his aircraft couldn't have violated Turkish air space "even by a single second" and added that "no warnings were issued, either by radio or visually". According to the navigator, the bomber flies at a much slower speed than a fighter aircraft, and, if they had wanted to issue a warning, "they could have indicated it by flying alongside", the missile also "suddenly hit the tail of the aircraft".

Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that "the Russian aircraft had not posed a threat to Turkey which was quite obvious". Putin did moreover rule out the fact that Turkey did not recognise that the Su-24 was Russian when it shot it down, since it had identification markings. At the Russian Foreign Ministry they called the recording of the warnings to the Su-24 "a work of art" in montage. At the same time, the head of the operational directorate of the Russian Military Forces General Staff, Sergey Rudskoy stressed that the radar at "Khmeimim" aerodrome had recorded a violation of Syrian air space by a fighter plane of the Turkish Air Force. Russia thinks that this is a direct violation of the Memorandum of Understanding on Prevention of Flight Safety Incidents in the course of operations in the. Syrian Arab Republicconcluded with the USA and applicable to all the countries of the coalition, including Turkey. Moreover, Russia's permanent representative ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, has stated that what happened had been planned earlier.

The Turkmens

It is noteworthy that the aircraft incident was preceded by a statement from the American side that the Russian??? Coalition forces were not only bombing IS [Islamic State] positions, but also those of the rebels fighting against the regime of [Syrian] President Bashar al-Assad. Besides this, the Turkish side asserted that the Russian air strikes in north-western Syria, a few kilometres from the Turkish frontier, had become more frequent. This area is inhabited by the Turkmens, a Turkic people, the third most populous in Syria (approximately 100,000) after the Arabs and the Kurds. Ankara has expressed its protests against the killing of Turkmen civilians and warned Russia that it has the right to take all the necessary measures if the security of its frontiers are violated. Ankara has also stated its concern regarding the possible increase in the number of refugees as a result of the Russian operations and has even appealed to the UN Security Council.

The Turkmens are offering resistance to Al-Assad's army and are categorically opposed to participation by him in any form of transitional government. Al-Assad himself has always had difficult relations with the Turkmen minority and always considered them a fifth column supporting close ties with Turkey. In January this year, the Turkmens' representative Khaled Khojawas elected head of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) and in the summer he went to Moscow for talks with the Russian Foreign Ministry. At the recent anniversary session of the UN General Assembly, Khoja stated that the air strikes by the Russian Air Force were being inflicted on territory where there were no IS fighters, but which was inhabited by Turkmen civilians.

In the view of the Western media, Russia's actions can be explained by a striving to open up a corridor to Idlib, which is controlled by the opposition. Russia itself has said that the fighters who mainly come from the Russian Federation are concentrated in Northern Latakia. There was a report in the Russian media that the Americans have supported Turkey's idea of creating a buffer zone along a 98-km-long section of the border with Syria. A 70,000-strong contingent of troops, mainly made up of Turkmens, is purportedly to be moved to this zone. After the incident with the Su-24, the official US State Department spokesman Mark Toner stated that "If these 'Turkomen' were actually being attacked by Russianstrikes. firing at the Su-24 Russian pilots who had ejected from the plane might be an act of self-defence."

Consequences

As one might expect, the Kremlin's reaction to what happened was tough. Putin called it "a stab in the back on the part of the accomplices of terrorists" and promised that the destruction of the aircraft would have the most serious consequences. Two days later the Kremlin chief reiterated this formulation:"We believe that the treacherous stabs in the back by those in whom we saw partners and allies in the fight against terrorism is absolutely inexplicable."

All in all, Russia has three options, military, economic and propaganda - to respond to Turkey, but each of them will really have its own "consequences".

Thus, the main sphere of Russo-Turkish cooperation in the economy is in energy supplies and tourism. Turkey does not have its own hydrocarbon resources and is therefore the second highest consumer of Russian gas after Germany (57 per cent or 27.3bn cu m). Exactly a year ago Putin and Erdogan came to an agreement on constructing the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline", envisaging new pipelines to Turkey and on to Europe on the bed of the Black Sea. But the deadlines and volumes have repeatedly been changed; the parties have argued over the price, and at the moment it looks as if the project is no longer viable. The two countries are also tied by a major energy project, the construction of the "Akkuyu" nuclear power plant, the first one in Turkey, by Rosatom [State Nuclear Energy Corporation]. The cost of the deal is estimated at 22bn dollars; the first unit was scheduled to go into service in 2022. Before the aircraft incident, Erdogan said that, if Russia does not build "Akkuyu", others will build it instead."

As far as tourism is concerned, the Russian Foreign Ministry has recommended that Russians cancel their trips to Turkey owing to the fact that the threat of terrorism in that country is just as bad as it is in Egypt, and the Rostourism agency has forbidden travel agents to sell tours to Turkey. It is reported that a visa regime is scheduled to be introduced between the two states. Air communications between Russia and Turkey may also be cancelled. Turkey was the most popular tourist destination for Russian tourists, with Russian tourists occupying first place in that country before 2015, only recently coming second to Germany. All in all, almost 4.5m Russians visited Turkey last year, leaving millions of dollars in that country.

According to Russian Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev, the Russian authorities are looking into prohibiting the activity of Turkish companies in the country, although only about 100 Turkish construction organisations are operating in the Russian Federation. Turkish textiles may also be banned, and [the Russian agricultural watchdog] Rosselkhoznadzor has started a total check of all agricultural produce and foodstuffs from Turkey. Twenty per cent of Russia's total vegetable deliveries come from Turkey. Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev has promised that Russia's possible rejection of deliveries of fruit and vegetables from Turkey will not affect the market.

But, in spite of Tkachev's optimism, the Russian economy cannot fail to suffer from economic sanctions with regard to Turkey. Turkey is Russia's fifth biggest export partner and 13th import partner, and the second biggest market for "Gazprom" and the second biggest purchaser of Russian grain (after Egypt). The trade turnover between the two countries is 31bn dollars, and it was planned to raiseit to 100bn dollars by 2020. Without mentioning even oil, gas and minerals, Russia has already invested 3bn dollars in the "Akkuyu" nuclear power plant, and this is the biggest contract in the "Rosatom" portfolio. In actual fact, Russian business is tied up with Turkey in very many ways.

Forbes counts approximately 600 Lukoil petrol stations operating in Turkey; DenizBank which occupies 9th place in Turkey's bank ratings and has been bought up by [Russia's] Sberbank; a 7-per-cent share of [Russian internet company] YANDEX is in Turkey; the gas-fired power station Trakya Elekrik Uretim is owned by "Inter RAO UES" [energy holding]; "GAZelle NEXT" [motor vehicles] are assembled in Turkey at the Mersa Otomotiv company works; 13.22 per cent of Alfa Telecom Turkey (ATT) belongs to Turkcell, the major mobile phone provider in Turkey (the controlling package belongs to Letter One Fridman, Khana and Kuzmichev). Returning to the same piece of rich cake, gas, it needs to be noted that the day before the Su-24 incident Putin attended a gas exporters' forum in Tehran. There Russia's desire to increase gas supplies to southern Europe was discussed. After the sanctions are lifted, Iran would also like to begin supplying gas, but that would be difficult to achieve without Turkey.

While economic restrictions are being introduced, Russia has decided to respond to Turkey by using propaganda, directly accusing Ankara of what is in fact double standards with regard to IS. Firstly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated to the Turkish foreign minister over the phone that "by shooting down the Russian aircraft that was carrying out an anti-terrorist mission for the Russian coalition forces in Syria", the Turkish leadership "has essentially gone over to the side of IS". Secondly, and this is most important, in the first few days after the downing of the Russian aircraft, Putinseveral times mentionedthat the Turkish side was involved in oil trading with IS. Ultimately, this statement was voiced during a press conference on the results of the talks with French President Francois Hollande.

"What we are talking about is industrial scale oil supplies from the captured Syrian territories seized by the terrorists. It is precisely from these territories, and not from elsewhere. We can see from the air where those vehicles are going. They are going to Turkey day and night. Suppose the top leadership in Turkey knows nothing about this. That is difficult to believe, but possible in theory. But if the top political leaders do not know anything about that, then let them find out about it. I might think that there are some elements of corruption and conspiracy involved, then let them deal with it," Putin stated. He thereby added that this by no means signifies that the Turkish authorities should not stop the illegal oil deliveries, "because those barrels that they are transporting not only contain oil, but the blood of citizens, because the terrorists use that money to buy weapons and ammunition and then commit bloody acts." 

Erdogan responded to these words in written form at the sitting of the heads of rural administrations in Ankara. "They say Turkey is buying oil from IS. Everyone knows where we get our fuel from, mainly from Russia. Then from Iran, Azerbaijan and Northern Iraq. Let them prove that we are buying oil from IS. Let those who accuse us of buying oil from IS prove it. If you are looking for the source of IS financing, the first place you need to look is in the direction of the al-Assad regime and those who support him," the Turkish president stated, after noting that he was willing to step down if these accusations proved to be true.

"Those representing Russia should not come out with such assertions. We have never and I repeat never done any business with terrorist organisations. When such accusations are made, proof is needed. If the Russian side can prove that, then Recep Tayyip Erdogan will resign from his post. This is a matter of honour," he said.

Erdogan also noted once again that Moscow is not fighting against IS, but against the moderate opposition and that Turkey is almost the only one fighting against IS. At the same time as this, the White House accused the Syrian government of buying oil from IS and put on the black list a Russian-Syrian businessman suspected of facilitating this deal, the Wall Street Journal reports.

In the language of weapons

Against this backdrop, a scenario of further military clashes between Russia and Turkey is acquiring a rather ominous character. Russia has stated that all flights by Russia's coalition bombers will now be covered by fighters. An S-400 Triumf anti-missile defence system has been moved to the Syrian Arab Republic which is capable of detecting and destroying all existing and future air targets within a radius of 480 km and can also repulse a mass air offensive. The "Moskva" missile cruiser is patrolling in the coastal waters off the Syrian province of Latakia. Russia can announce that Turkish aircraft crossing the Syrian frontier or somehow threatening the lives of Russian servicemen in this region can be shot down. 

In his turn, the head of the Turkish Armed Forces' General Staff has increased the number of military aircraft making flights along the Turkish-Syrian border, has given orders that all forms of ground forces and aviation should be combat-ready, and, in an interview with [US news agency] CNN, Erdogan noted that, if a military aircraft were to be shot down by the Russian anti-aircraft complex, this would be regarded as an act of aggression.

Besides this, if this were to be the case, Turkey can restrict the passage of Russian ships through the Bosporusand Dardanelles straits, which would make it difficult for the Russians to take supplies to their "Hmeimim" air base in Syria. With this state of affairs, Russia cannot depend on the other Black Sea countries - Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Georgia - which are not inclined towards her in a friendly manner. Of course, according to the 1936 Montreux Convention [Regarding the Regime of the Straits], Turkey can close the passage through the strait to ships flying the flag of a country with which Ankara is officially in a state of war. But, when listening to the rhetoric of the two country's leaders, all options have to be considered.

One variant is backing the Syrian Kurds, support for whom some Russian politicians and political scientists, as well as ordinary users of social networking sites,are calling for. But it looks as if it is precisely the Kurdish issue that reveals the full extent to which the issue of Russo-Turkish relations cannot bring itselfto stop drawing support from narrow-minded rage and impulsiveness. Turkey really is afraid of the Syrian Kurds gaining strength, because they may provide the Turkish Kurds, who are well-known for their separatist aspirations, with mighty backing. But things are not all that simple here. Although they are not as radical, the Syrian Kurds are opposed to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who is supported by Moscow. The Kurds do moreover have their own ties with the Americans. On 26November roughly 50 US army servicemen went through the checkpoint on the frontier with Turkeyto support those same Kurds. This is why the growing strength of the Kurds is not advantageous to either to Turkey or Iran, but Moscow cannot allow itself to lose an ally like Tehran.

Common sense

This means that the situation is much more complex and multi-layered than appears at first glance. The specific nature of Russo-Turkish relations is such that, in further escalating the confrontation, both sides will suffer in the same serious manner - both economically and politically, not to mention a military scenario. For Turkey the confrontation with Russia may turn out to be a serious impediment on the path to leadership in the Middle East. As far as Russia is concerned, she does not have many allies in this region at all. If the gas contracts are cancelled, both Turkey and Russia will lose out, but Ankara has an additional trump cards as it is an energy hub, which incidentally would give it the opportunity to exert fairly desirable influence on the EU countries.

The loss of trade ties, investmentsand joint business ventures in both countries is bound to lead to a growth in unemployment and this means a rise in domestic unrest andinclinations toprotest. This would increase in the event of military losses. Turkey will continue to suffer from the influx of refugees since achieving a settlement in Syria and coping with Islamic State in such circumstances would be extremely complicated. Incidentally, it is not out of place to remind both Moscow and Ankara that third parties might take advantage of their mutual enfeeblement. This is the reality of world politics.

The deterioration in Russo-Turkish relations is highly disadvantageous,both to the Caspian region which is already unstable and to the South Caucasus region, and specifically to Baku. Almost every citizen of Azerbaijan assessed the incident that occurred as something personal, and here it is hard to express an unambiguous attitude, because for Azerbaijan Turkey is a fraternal country and a strategic ally, but Russia is our closest neighbour, a country with which we have strong historical, political and economic ties. Baku will possibly manage to exploit this potential to act as an intermediary. As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said at the meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Azerbaijan is prepared to apply every effort to eliminate the tension between Turkey and Russia, which it regrets, since it has strong ties with both states.

At any rate, a solution has to be found, for the cost of the situation that has taken shape may be excessively high.