"ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED LINE"

The outgoing year 2015 has been a difficult one; in many cases it has been a crucial time when the masks have come off, an international political system has been transformed and events have occurred which could not have been forecast a few years ago, even by the boldest of political scientists.

From Ukraine to Syria

Over the past year in world politics the accents have definitely shifted from Ukraine to Syria. Whereas before that, when tension reached its height in Ukraine while fighting was actively going on in Donbass [the Donetsk basin], Syria had almost disappeared from the headlines in the world news, but in the second half of the outgoing year, everything was quite the opposite. Now Syria is the focus of the world news, but the conflict in Ukraine has turned into another frozen "hotspot" of some kind. In February the military operations in Donbass was extinguished by the Minsk agreement worked out by the presidents of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France after many-hour-long disputes. But not a single point on the plan has so far been fulfilled. The self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic are in fact protectorates of Russia. The media periodically write about the exchanges of fire that are occurring in the Donbass; the Ukrainian administration is being shaken up by internal contradictions, and the country is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.

All these misfortunes are attracting much less of mankind's attention than the situation in the Middle East, where the end of spring was a time of success and expansion for IS [Islamic State], with the group having seized considerable areas of territory in Iraq and Syria. For several months the international community looked on helplessly while Palmyra's priceless monuments of antiquity were destroyed. The operations of the international coalition headed by the USA were unable to halt IS's progress. At the same time, the internal crisis in Syria was developing, firstly based on the confrontation between Bashar al-Assad's army and the groupings opposed to him.

When Russia entered the Syrian theatre of war with its military operations, that marked a turning point; at the request of al-Assad, from 30 September, Russian Military Space Forces' aircraft began operations against IS in Syria. Almost from the very first day, the USA came out with a statement that the Russian bombs were mainly not falling on the terrorists, but on the Syrian opposition. Moscow denies this, but does thereby add that some of the opposition fighters are in fact terrorists. What was already a complicated situation surrounding Syria was further exacerbated when a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber on 24 November.

Official Ankara has stated that the Russian aircraft was destroyed because it violated Turkish air space, something that Moscow categorically denies and has stated that it was "a treacherous stab in the back" on the part of Turkey. As a result, there has been an unprecedented deterioration in Russo-Turkish relations, both politically and economically, from which both sides have suffered. The experts predict possible complications owing to the confrontation in the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, as well as on the Syrian-Turkish and Turkish-Iraq frontiers where the "Kurdish card" continues to be played. Russia and Turkey are continuing to accuse one another of involvement in illegal purchases of oil from IS, which essentially means they are financing the rebel fighters.

The Syrian crisis itself is being resolved in keeping with the "Vienna Format", which involves the foreign ministers of almost 20 states, as well as representatives of the League of Arab States, the Organisation of Islamic States and the European Union. A "road map" for political changes in Syria has been agreed upon, but without a definite accord on the further fate of al-Assad or a concrete list of terrorist organisations operating on the territory of Syria and Iraq being drawn up yet.

At the end of the year the Arab Union announced the creation of an Islamic anti-terrorist coalition comprising 34 countries, with the exception of Iraq, Iran, Syria and Oman, which can make further substantial amendments to the distribution of forces in the Middle East.

Acts of terrorism

The year 2015 was one of significant, cruel acts of terrorism. It all began in January when the staff of the editorial office of the "Charlie Hebdo" satirical magazine were massacred in Paris. This tragedy prompted many arguments about freedom of speech, the true target of satire as well as the current state of European values.

France boosted its security measures, but all the same it was unable to prevent the events of 13 November, when terrorists opened fire randomly in several districts of Paris, killing 130 people. What happened not only shocked the French, but the whole world. For IS demonstrated that it has the possibility to operate not only in Syria and Iraq, but far beyond the bounds of the Middle East as well.

On 26 June terrorists entered the grounds of the Imperial Marhaba Hotel by boat and shot dead 40 tourists, mainly EU citizens, relaxing on the beach. On 10 October two explosions resounded in [the Turkish capital] Ankara, taking the lives of more than 100 people, mainly young people, which was the bloodiest act of terrorism in the history of the Turkish republic.

On 31 October a Russian A321 aircraft flying to St. Petersburg from [the Egyptian Red Sea resort of] Sharm-el-Sheykh was blown up in the skies over Sinai, killing 224 people, mainly Russian holiday-makers returning home. What happened has dealt a serious blow to the Egyptian tourist industry and emphasized the problem of Northern Sinai, which is packed with terrorists, also reveal the possibility of a threat to the Suez Canal. There have been numerous attacks in African countries, mostly by the "Boko Haram" grouping, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Kuwait and other countries.

The political struggle

The outgoing year has been marked by an upsurge in right- and left-wing radical forces in Europe. In Greece the SYRIZA coalition of left-wing radicals, in Spain the "Podemos" ("We can") party and in Germany the PEGIDA ("Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of Europe") movement and so forth. During the regional elections in France the "National Front" headed by the universally popular Marine Le Pen was prevented from coming to power. This has revealed the crisis in the European party systems, which are traditionally divided into centrist right-wing and left-wing parties.

Now the dividing line is between "our own" and "outsiders", and extreme right-wing and extreme left-wing parties have come on the scene, which are learning to find a common language among themselves. The collapse of the two-party system is going hand in hand with the migrant crisis, with the issues of the extent to which Europe needs tolerance and political correctness and threats to national security. All these issues will no doubt be raised in Great Britain next year, the Conservative Party headed by current Prime Minister David Cameron scored an impressive success in 2015. Cameron has promised the British a referendum on EU membership and to pay more thorough attention to migration problems.

Internal events in Turkey, which underwent two rounds of parliamentary elections in 2015, are undoubtedly noteworthy among the important and revealing political processes. Whereas they did not manage to form a right-wing government following the first round of elections, after the second round of elections Turkey returned to a single party system of government, with the ruling Justice and Develop-ment Party obtaining the right to create a government and rule the country all on its own. Turkey's current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is not prepared to stop at that and believes the country needs a presidential form of rule, as well as a new constitution.

Migrants

In 2015 Turkey and Europe have been tightly bound together due to the migrant crisis. The flow of refugees from the countries of North Africa into Europe has gradually increased since the end of spring. At the end of summer and in September the EU countries were swamped with refugees from Syria and other countries in the Middle East. It is thought that more than one million migrants made their way to Europe in 2015, but there are grounds for believing that in reality this number is 1.5 million. The route they take mainly runs through Turkey and then across the sea to Greece or Italy.

Not everyone can manage to get to the "promised land" - many refugees, including children, have drowned in the waters of the Aegean and Mediterranean seas. The migration crisis has provoked political differences within the EU and raised the security problem to a new level, since terrorists are infiltrating the Old World in the guise of refugees. Germany has taken the most migrants, and this has been supported by the policy of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Moreover, her "open doors" efforts are far from being approved of in the country. Dissatisfaction with Berlin's actions has had an effect on Berlin's informal leadership in the EU. Perhaps in 2016 further developments in Merkel's career and the role of Germany on the world stage may become one of the most interesting political topics.

Iran

The year 2015 will go down in history as a turning point in resolving the crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme. In July an agreement was signed between Iran and the "six" international mediators (the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany). The community of experts stated that a new stage had begun in relations between Iran and the world community. In exchange for observation of strict restrictions in this sphere, Iran has been promised that the sanctions would be less stringent. It is thought that the consequences, both political and economic, of the return of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the international arena, will be revealed most vividly in the coming year.

To sum up

As the year nears its end, the political leaders in the world have for all that found the strength within themselves to turn aside from the economy and wars and spend time dealing with climate problems. It is expected that the document will combine the efforts of literally the whole of mankind in the struggle to combat climate change and preserve what is left of a healthy environment. The agreement was approved by all 195 countries that took part in the summit in Paris, and the official signing is scheduled to take place in New York in 2016. In 2020, when the Kyoto Climate Protocol expires, the Paris agreement will begin to come into force.

Two months before this, the world leaders gathered at the 70th Jubilee Session of the United Nations General Assembly. The world leaders had the opportunity to speak out about their standpoint regarding the issues troubling their countries specifically and the rest of the world. Various appraisals, conclusions and accusations were heard, but each speech naturally ended with calls for peace.

But 70 years after the end of the Second World War, it is obvious that the international political system has not improved or become safer. Moreover, concerns are increasingly voiced that a Third World War will be unleashed. There can be no doubt that 2016 will bring the development of the outgoing year's critical events which are familiar to everyone and it will obviously not be an easy one. But one would like to hope that on a planetary scale mankind will not cross "the red line".