NEW FRONT

The intraregional confrontation has increased significantly as a result of the break in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Relations between Shiite Iran and radical Sunni Saudi Arabia (the regional powers vying for leadership in the Islamic world), which were not particularly warm as it was, have been severed completely after the execution by the Saudi authorities of Ayatollah Nimr al-Nimr, a well-known Shiite preacher, who was arrested back in 2012. The theologian sharply criticized the regime of Saudi Arabia, called for respect for the rights of religious minorities and constitutional reform in the country. However, the affinity of the Shiite preacher with Iran was no less frightening for Riyadh than al-Nimr's dissidence. It is not surprising that his execution has caused such a sharp condemnation in the Islamic Republic and throughout the Shiite community.

A crowd of Iranian demonstrators protesting against the execution of al-Nimr broke into the territory of Saudi Arabia's diplomatic missions - the Embassy in Tehran and the Consulate in Mashhad. In response, Riyadh announced the severance of relations with Iran. The Government of the Islamic Republic, giving tit for tat, has banned the import of all products from Saudi Arabia. But what is even more significant in political terms is that Tehran actually threatened the very existence of the kingdom ruled by the Saud dynasty. Brigadier General Hos-sein Salami, the deputy head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, openly stated that the "Saudi regime will not last long if it is to continue its irrational policy in the region". According to him, the "policy of Saudi Arabia can cause an avalanche that will bury the al-Saud regime".

The growing confrontation bet-ween Riyadh and Tehran has resulted in the resumption of a military operation conducted by the Saudi-led Arab coalition in Yemen. Since August 2014, the poorest country of the Arab Peninsula has been the scene of an armed conflict between the government forces and the Shia Houthi movement. After the Houthis established control over almost the entire territory of Yemen in January-March 2015, Saudi Arabia, supported by the Air Force of Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and other countries in the region embarked on a military air operations against the Iranian-backed Houthis. The operation has become less active only in recent weeks, as Riyadh, being concerned with the progress of Russia's military campaign in Syria that threatens the interests of the opposition groups protected by the Saudis, focused its attention on the struggle against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. To this end, Saudi Arabia has even announced the formation of a Muslim coalition to fight Daesh (so-called Islamic State), which has in fact demonstrated Riyadh's desire to gain a foothold in the Syrian space that is fateful for the future of the Middle East. Now, against the background of the break in relations with Iran, the Saudi monarchy has resumed active bombing of Yemen to spite Tehran. As a result, the Iranian embassy in Sana'a was hit by air strikes the responsibility for which Tehran was quick to pin on Riyadh. However, Saudi Arabia denied the strikes on the embassy and promised to investigate into the matter.

Meanwhile, the line of confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is growing, and not only due to Yemen. Following in the footsteps of Riyadh, the diplomatic relations with Iran was broken by Bahrain, a close ally of the Saudi dynasty and a Sunni-controlled country where Shiites account for almost 70 per cent of the population. Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, and the Comoros Islands followed suite to show "solidarity with Saudi Arabia". Saudi Arabia's monarchic neighbours - the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar which, like Riyadh, promote the interests of the Wahhabi movement, lowered the level of diplomatic relations with Iran to charges d'affaires.

However, there is more to it than the traditional Sunni-Shiite contradictions that are being skilfully fanned by influential world powers which joined in a fierce battle for dominance in the Middle East. One reason for the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly the clash of energy interests of the two countries. In particular, The Intercept, an online publication, reports that "almost all the fossil fuels in the Persian Gulf lie under the territories inhabited by Shiites. This is true even for Sunni Saudi Arabia, where the major oil fields are located in the Eastern Province, mostly populated by Shiites". In other words, Riyadh is deeply concerned with the risk that the "country's Shiites might separate and, having all the oil in their possession, unite with the Shiites of Iran". According to John Schwartz, a columnist at The Intercept, this fear intensified after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, as a result of which Saddam Hussein's regime that relied on the Sunni minority was ousted and the Shiite majority supporting Iran came to power.

In the context of recent ups and downs in the Iran-Saudi relations, the question arises of the possibility of war between the two countries. Most experts tend to believe that matters will not go that far, at least in the short term. First of all, a full-scale military conflict is not in the best interests of either Tehran or Riyadh. The latter clearly expressed its position by a statement of the Kingdom's Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, who emphasized that an armed conflict "is something that we do not foresee at all, and whoever is pushing towards that is somebody who is not in their right mind. Because a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the beginning of a major catastrophe in the region, and it will reflect very strongly on the rest of the world".

The "rest of the world" is not enthusiastic about a possible military conflict between Tehran and Riyadh, either. In particular, the United States is fully aware that a direct confrontation between the Islamic Republic, which is being released from international sanctions and seeking full economic cooperation with the West as one of the key regional players, and Saudi Arabia, which is not only the "most reliable US gas station" but also Washington's real ally in removing Middle Eastern regimes that fell out of favour with the West, is fraught with unpredictable consequences. And it is not just about the threat to the security and the very existence of specific regional countries, but also to long-term strategic interests of the world centres in the Middle East and throughout the Muslim world.

Nevertheless, political and economic confrontation between Iran, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the Wahhabi monarchies allied with it, on the other, will continue in any case. A solution to it may only be found in the context of an overall settlement of the bloody Middle Eastern conflicts, which have in recent years turned into the most severe headache of the modern political world order.