WHAT WILL BE THE FATE OF UZBEKISTAN AFTER KARIMOV?

He begins the history of the independent Uzbekistan. Having come to power even before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Islam Karimov was elected president in 1991. Over the next ten years, his mandate was extended twice. In 2000, 2007 and 2015, he was re-elected as the president according to the results of ballots.

Karimov was trying to build a national, secular, developed nation, even if the means to achieve this objective have been very controversial. The fact is he had managed to achieve the results. Thanks to promoting the spiritual revival of his country, Karimov was fighting the Wahhabi radicals and by closing the borders with Afghanistan, he has limited the activities of IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) and Hizb al-Tahrir. Despite some acts of violence, Uzbekistan had managed to avoid the outbreak of civil war unlike the neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Karimov had perfect skills in manipulating the Uzbek family ties. He had built a robust system of checks and balances between the powerful clans, thus preserving the integrity of the country.

Under his rule, the foreign policy of Uzbekistan was known as a policy of conflict management, although the Uzbeks determine it as a “brilliant example of isolationism”. Uzbekistan had become one of the founders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (initially, the organization was even called the Organization of the Tashkent Treaty) but it later had withdrawn from it, as was the case of with the pro-Western bloc GUUAM. Uzbekistan had also initiated the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and also was part of and later suspended its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

Modern Uzbekistan is the key country in Central Asia, having common borders and issues with all the countries of the region, including Afghanistan. Turkmenistan maybe an exception, however, due to the policy of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov.

From the very beginning, Karimov has sought to establish good neighborly relations with Russia. However, after the events of 9/11, Uzbekistan has suddenly become a major ally of the US: the government had leased its military bases to US during the NATO intervention in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan was the second state after Israel, which had provided the most pro-American support to UN resolutions. After the events in Andijan, however, when the United States condemned the actions of local authorities, the Americans had been expelled from the military base Karshi-Khanabad, and the offices of international NGOs had been closed. The US had chosen not to spoil relations with Uzbekistan focusing on own geopolitical interests. The same is true about Russia, which had simply written off the Uzbek debt of $890 million.

Currently, Uzbekistan is increasingly improves relations with China, which became the biggest trade partner of the country with the sales turnover of $3 billion last year and leaving Russia behind. The Chinese President Xi Jinping has declared the “new era of Sino-Uzbek strategic partnership”. In response, Karimov had thanked China for its support in difficult times. It is not customary to talk about the difficulties in the Uzbek economy but most of the local population experience them in daily life.

Uzbekistan has a closed economy, which is largely based on the extraction and export of mineral resources and agriculture. The country has a special geographical position: given the absence of access to the sea, it is one of the rare countries, which is separated from waterbodies due to the territories of two countries.

Over the years of independence, Uzbekistan's population has grown from 19.8 to 31.6 million. This is a record figure in the post-Soviet region. Millions of migrants striving for a more successful life go to Russia and send the money earned back to the homeland. However, due to existing problems in the Russian economy, the volume of remittances to Uzbekistan in the first quarter of 2016 fell to $256 million compared with $910 million during the same period of 2014, as reported by the Russian Central Bank.

The current change of leadership in Uzbekistan took place at a time when the entire region suffers from geopolitical instability and economic turmoil. The future leadership of the country is likely to face the following problems and challenges: the threat of disintegration as a result of war between the clans, the surge of radical Islam, disputed border issues with neighboring countries, geopolitical confrontation of world powers concerning Uzbekistan, economic issues and drug trafficking.

The clan battles and opposition aspirations

The late President wrote in his book “Uzbekistan on the Threshold of the 21st century”: the struggle between clans in Uzbekistan is not less of a threat than terrorism or religious extremism. Karimov had managed to settle many such problems during his lifetime. Each of these groups has significant resources and semi-armed troops. According to some sources, some of these clans are even influenced by radical Islamic groups. In fact, Uzbekistan is divided into several areas formed because of a variety of factors even before Sovietization. As almost in all the eastern states, the Uzbek clans are fighting for the high-ranked positions and spheres of influence in different sectors of local economy.

This struggle may be exacerbated after Karimov's death, as well as the positions of radical Islamists. Even the iron-fisted former president could not prevent the growth of radical Islamists. Back in the early 90's, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan had close ties with Afghanistan, where 10% of the population consists of ethnic Uzbeks, who have repeatedly tried to break into Uzbekistan, but thanks to the vigilance of the authorities and the army leadership, the government had managed to keep the situation under control. There is also a growth in the number of ethnic Uzbeks joining the ranks of terrorist organizations fighting in Syria. If Uzbek authorities allow the Islamic radicals into the country, the consequences will affect the whole region including the neighboring China, which may be exposed to outbreak of separatism in Xinjiang region mostly populated by Muslim Uighurs.

As for the so-called secular and democratic opposition, which was not favoured by Karimov's regime, the representative of Erk Party, Dustnazar Khudoynazarov has clearly demonstrated its nature and essence by stating that the people of Surkhandarya region of Uzbekistan were protesting against the possible nomination of Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev in the upcoming presidential elections. As it turned out later, there were no protests and the statement was actually spread by some websites in Ukraine, where Khudoynazarov is currently residing. The statement of the leader of Erk Party, Muhammad Salih, is also noteworthy: “the period of power vacuum is less dangerous than the period of tyranny”. This sounds like an open call to chaos, civil confrontation, and bloodshed.

Zero problems with neighbours

The cause of all disputes of Uzbekistan with its neighbors is a foolish policy inherited from the Soviet era, when the leaders often used to determine the borders with only a ruler, mapping the countries without taking into account regional peculiarities. There are many enclaves of ethnic minorities on the territories of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan ruthlessly separated by borders of the Soviet history. Today, the balance is maintained only with Turkmenistan, as the Turkmen gas pipeline to China passes through Uzbekistan.

The relations with Kazakhstan are not exactly problem-free since both states rival for the supremacy in the region.

Uzbekistan has serious very serious conflicts with Kyrgyzstan in Osh oblast, the home of ethnic Uzbeks. Over the past 26 years, there have been two big collisions resulted in victims from both sides. There is also a territorial dispute over the mountains Ungar-Too, where the BBC Uzbek is broadcasting with the approval of the Kyrgyz government. On August 22, the Uzbek security forces took control of the mountain.

Geopolitics

It seems that we will soon witness a struggle among Russia, China and the US for having influence in Uzbekistan. According to analysts, such a competition may reveal the real essence of Sino-Russian relations, as these countries are the key players in the region. While Moscow has a significant military power, Beijing has been traditionally known as an economically powerful state. It is worth mentioning that if China and Russia fail to agree on global policy and become a unified power in Central Asia, this likely can turn into confrontation between these two countries. On the other hand, Russia and China may well cooperate on the common playground rather than competing with each other. A possible outbreak of Islamic radicalism in Uzbekistan, the chaos and violence in the region is a significant threat to both Russia and China. Eventually, both powers may well coordinate their actions against a common rival - the United States. The latter obviously is not in favour of the historical hegemony of Russia in the region, and the growing influence of China. The overseas methods of influence will most likely not surprise with something new: the Americans will continue stating constant “concerns” on certain issues, supporting centrifugal forces, such as the radicals of all stripes, and drawing the region into chaos.

Fortunately, today the situation is quite stable, and the selection of Karimov’s successor has not witnessed major upheavals.

Who is he?

Shavkat Mirziyoyev is a native of Samarkand and irrigation engineer. Previously, he was the head of administration of the Samarkand region. He has been leading the government of Uzbekistan since December 2003 responsible for agriculture and water management, as well as the processing of agricultural products and the development of regions. According to analysts, Mirziyoyev will pay more attention to security forces. Therefore, it is no coincidence that Rustam Inoyatov, the head of the National Security Service, actively supports him.

Immediately after Karimov's death, there were rumors that the Deputy Prime Minister, the leader of the Tashkent clan and the pro-Western politician Rustam Azimov is under house arrest. We can only assume that some forces were interested in fueling the inter-clan struggle. At the funeral ceremony, however, both Mirziyoyev and Azimov stood together and carried the body of the late president. That may imply that after elections, the new president Mirziyoyev can offer premiership to Azimov.

In addition to local support, Shavkat Mirziyoyev has also received a signal of approval from Moscow: the Russian President Vladimir Putin has paid a tribute to the late president Karimov by visiting his grave and has had a talk with Mirziyoyev. The candidacy of Mirziyoyev is beneficial for Russia since it is considered that he will follow the same path in both domestic and foreign policies. This is likely to be true in the beginning of Mirziyoyev’s career, as he expects to get the support of all the major players within the country and abroad. However, soon or late, he will have to get out of Karimov’s shadow and play his own game. What will be the consequences?

Some experts believe that Shavkat Mirziyoyev is a pro-Russian politician while others call him pro-Chinese. It is very likely that the Russians will continue improving their influence in Uzbekistan but it is too early to discuss the imminent accession of the country into CSTO and EEU. It is impossible to exclude pro-Western aspirations of the new generation of the Uzbek elite.

Anyway, Uzbekistan enters a new era with old problems within the country and around it. Given the volatility of the region, it is vital for Uzbekistan to keep the balance of power. Only time can tell if the Uzbek elites behave as wisely as customary in the East.