A GORDIAN KNOT FOR TURKEY

The Middle East is still the focus of the world media. In addition to Syria, where the government troops and rebels have fierce battles in the vicinities of Aleppo, the headlines of newspapers cover the events in Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city.

In June 2014, the ISIS terrorists occupied Mosul and declared it their capital city in Iraq. The liberation of the city was on agenda for a long time, and finally, on October 17, the beginning of operation, with the participation of Iraq's armed forces, the People's Self-Defense Forces, and the military units of Iraqi Kurdistan (Peshmerge) was announced. The coalition forces led by the United States provide the air support. The official statement of Ankara’s intention to participate in the campaign using the Turkish Armed Forces was a source of controversy. This statement may seriously worsen the relations of the Turkey with its traditional partners in NATO, as well as with regional neighbors.

Iraq and the war, again…

Immediately after the events of September 11, 2001, the United States and its partners began accusing the Iraqi ruling power of the development of weapons of mass destruction and the violation of international law. Despite the absence of factual evidences, the intervention campaign was launched.

Since the start of operations of the coalition forces back in 2003 and up to the present, Iraq has become a territory of chaos, internal conflicts, and hybrid wars.

In fact, it is more appropriate to call Iraq “a territory” rather than “a state”. The peace is still not achieved in the country. It is clearly divided into three parts, and the terrorist groups support informal autonomies adjacent to these territories. That is where the ISIS was born under the name Islamic State of Iraq. According to political analysts, the emergence of the terrorist organization was due to the military intervention of the Western powers. The leadership of the organization in Iraqi territory included many former officers of Sunni origin from Saddam's regime, who remained unemployed after the intervention.

The operation to liberate Mosul from the ISIS is an important issue not only for the security of Iraq and the region, but also for the global powers.

So far, the most important and contradictory processes are taking place in the triangle Turkey-Iraq-the United States.

For Turkey, it is very important to keep its military at the Ba’shiqah base located 20 kilometers north of Mosul in a safe area. Located in a strategic area close to the military action, this base has become even more important after the following statement of the Iraqi Defense Minister Khaled al-Obaidi: “We can use the Turkish military contingent only when there is a need.” After the crisis in relations between Turkey and Russia in November last year, and as a result of pressing from official Moscow and Tehran, Turkey has been insulated a little, including on the part of Iraq. The leader of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, who had previously held an openly pro-Turkish stance, said that “Turkey should negotiate this move with Baghdad.” Given the negative opinion of the Iraqi government in this regard, this statement was a big surprise to the Turkish authorities.

Yet another attack on Turkey was the campaign against the former governor of Mosul, Osama al-Noujayfi, commander of detachment ‘Hashdi Watani’ trained by the Turkish instructors. It was decided to arrest al- Noujayfi as soon as the operation began in Mosul.

Not having received the expected support from Kurdish and Sunni groups, Turkey got another hit by the pro-Iranian Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who called on his supporters to hold mass demonstrations in front of the Turkish Embassy in Baghdad, which reflected the position of the Iranian state.

Nevertheless, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, responding to the aspirations of the nationalist forces in the country, as well as demonstrating consistency in foreign policy, has repeatedly expressed the desire of Turkey to participate in military operations, and to sit behind the negotiations table. He has boldly responded to Iraqi Prime Minister, who had compared the Turkish soldiers with the occupiers, saying that Haider al-Abadi was not his match. Despite the tough position of the Turkish president, the diplomats are holding meetings with both the Iraqi and American counterparts to address the crisis. Such contacts have not yet yielded results. The future prospects also remain unclear yet.

But why is Turkey trying so hard to participate in the Mosul operation, despite such a nervous reaction of the Iraqi central government, the Shia elements, the Kurdish forces and the disapproval from global players? This question cannot be answered from a single point of view due to the diverse range of historical, ethnic, and legal factors, as well as the parameters of state security.

The successors of the empire

Turkey asserts that it has strong historical ties with Iraq, as well as with the entire Middle East in matters pertaining to international politics and international law, as a successor to the Ottoman Empire. Mosul and the surrounding area belonged to the Turks in the past, during the time of the Seljuk Empire. Since 1118, this province was under the Ottoman rule for almost 800 years. Mosul has been the focus of the imperialist powers during the First World War, mainly because of the huge oil reserves, which led to the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the occupation of the area by the British since November, 15 1918. However, the occupation of Mosul is still considered illegitimate, as it took place after the signing of the Mudros Armistice on October 30, 1918. Under the conditions of the cease-fire, any hostile action is unacceptable in accordance with international law. However, the British Empire had seized the territory of the Ottoman Empire, referring to Clause 7 of the Treaty, namely the event threatening the security of the Allies. This was unacceptable to the leadership of the Ottoman Empire and the leaders of the national liberation struggle led by Atatürk. This issue had not received the decision in the course of the Lausanne negotiations, and was later handed over to the League of Nations. It was evident that the problem would be solved not in favor of the Turkish interests. Still the fledgling state, Turkey was not able to withstand a confrontation with the mighty British Empire, the world superpower of that time. In addition, the Nestorian and Kurdish uprisings supported by the British had also weakened the position of Turkey. As a result, the latter was forced to cede Mosul to Iraq, which was under the British mandate.

Another historical argument in favour of Turkey is Misaki Milli (the National Pact), a set of six important decisions of the last session of the Ottoman Parliament, which defines Mosul within the national borders. The Turkish leadership have recalled this pact increasingly in recent years reminded.

Support to sister cities

Like many areas in the Middle East, Mosul is considered a multinational city. The determining prerequisite in this case was the principle of “divide and conquer”, which was in effect between the First and the Second World Wars. Demographically, Iraq is mainly populated by Arabs, Turks / Turkomans, Kurds. The absolute majority of the population (99%) is Muslim confessionally divided into two large groups – the Shiites and Sunnis.

Legal arguments

Turkey is basing its military presence in Iraq and its desire to participate in the Mosul operation on the principles of international law, namely the respective UN resolutions and the agreement between Turkey and Iraq signed in 1926. The last two facts reinforce the position of Ankara. However, the legal legitimacy is often not a sufficient argument for political platforms, especially in matters of international relations.

The UN Resolution 3314 (Definition of Aggression) states that the use of armed forces of one State on the territory of another is possible only under an agreement with the host country. The Government of Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government have formally invited the Turkish military, but there is no formal request to leave the country.

Another important factor is the content of articles 6, 7, 8 of the Ankara Agreement signed between Turkey and Iraq. It particularly reads that the countries have the right to invade the territory of each other within a 75 km-radius from the border in case of armed assaults or attacks. Mosul and Ba’shiqah are just located at a distance of 75 km from the Turkish border.

Security risks

The Turkish authorities are mostly concerned about the security issues. With extensive border with Iraq, Turkey is facing a number of risk factors and threats.

First, the conflict can extend into the neighboring countries in domino effect. Another risk is that after the operation in Mosul, the region as a whole can get under the control of Kurdish militias associated with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and opposed to Turkey. The third risk is a possible ethnic or inter-religious conflict in Mosul. In all three cases, Turkey will become a party to the conflict.

All these risks force Turkey to take a direct part in the current processes around Mosul and in the subsequent stages. Official Ankara is concerned that the country’s absence in the region will strengthen both the forces associated with the PKK and the pro-Iranian elements. With ambitions to be a regional power, Turkey simply cannot ignore participation in all these processes. 

The Ottoman governor of Basra province, Suleyman Askeri, said during the First World War: “Safety of Istanbul starts in the Levant and Baghdad”. A paraphrase of his statement by the current Turkish authorities sounds like: “Safety of Ankara starts in Jarabulus and Mosul.”