THE KASHMIRI THRESHOLD

India and Pakistan go through yet another cycle of tensions. The region of Kashmir remains the bone of contention between these two countries since 1947. However, since both states are nuclear powers, the conflict runs on a much higher level than just a territorial dispute and is certainly one of the epicenters of global instability.

Initially, the territorial division of India and Pakistan took place along religious lines. The provinces of the former British India inhabited by a predominantly Muslim population has moved to Pakistan, while the Hindu population has mainly remained in India. The dispute centres around the territorial jurisdiction of the principality of Jammu and Kashmir, which is predominantly Muslim. But since the ruler was a Hindu, he has decided to be a part of India, which angered Pakistan. Thus, the first Indo-Pakistani War took place in 1947-1948 and ended in favor of India. According to the ceasefire line drawn by UN, 60% of the territory of the former principality remained under the control of India as the State of Jammu and Kashmir, nearly one-third moved to Pakistan forming the region of Gilgit-Baltistan, and the autonomous Azad Kashmir. China took another 10% of the territory of Kashmir at the beginning of the 60s and created the Aksai Chin region there. This division remains in force until today, but in the recent past it was the cause of two wars between India and Pakistan, as well as numerous armed clashes. According to various estimates, by the end of the 80s, from 70 to 100 thousand people have become the victims of the conflict began.

Yet another escalation of the Kashmir conflict is unfolding now. It is more intense than the regular skirmishes between Indian and Pakistani troops in this region.

The first incident happened on September 18, 2016, when an Indian military regiment deployed in the town of Uri was attacked and 19 soldiers were killed. India stated that the perpetrators of this crime were Islamist militants that came from the Pakistani territory. Although Islamabad denied any involvement in the attack, on September 29, India reported on a return operation conducted by special forces on the Pakistan-controlled part of Kashmir. As a result, seven hideouts were destroyed and more than 35 extremists were killed. Since then, the tensions over Kashmir have been increasing daily. Islamabad and New Delhi have accused each other of violating the ceasefire and "unprovoked" firing on the Line of Control. In particular, seven Pakistani soldiers were killed in an "unprovoked" fire by Indian troops on the Line of Control in Kashmir. In response, Pakistan conducted an operation in the sector Bhimper, which led to the deaths of 11 Indian military.

However, the parties are not limited to shootings and local military operations. New Delhi announced a massive bombardment of the Pakistani army in Rajauri sector in Jammu and Kashmir. Islamabad reported about a massive shelling of the territory controlled by Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir. These actions resulted in killing of soldiers and civilians on both sides.

The military operation codenamed Thunderbolt and conducted by Islamabad in the Pakistani part of Kashmir was a manifestations of escalating tensions in Indo-Pakistani relations during the past days. Meanwhile, India reported about another round of successful tests of the "ground-to-ground" ballistic missile Prithvi-II, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Prithvi-II was the first missile developed under India's integrated program for guided missiles. Amidst the strained relations with Pakistan, New Delhi announced the launch of the Cheetah Project aimed at upgrading the existing set of UAVs of Israeli manufacture and equipping them with guided weapons. India stresses that it intends to use these devices primarily in counter-terrorism operations of the Indian special forces and the main area of ​​application will be Kashmir.

Thus, the long-standing confrontation between India and Pakistan can easily provoke the escalation of tensions, which does not serve the interests of global security since other actors of world politics can gradually get involved into the Kashmir conflict. Although committed to the development of the traditionally friendly relations with India, Russia nevertheless continues to develop strategic partnership with Pakistan, which resulted in the recent joint military exercises. The main reason is that Russia’s priority is to ensure balanced relations with parties to the Kashmir conflict. Secondly, the expansion of the dialogue between Moscow and Islamabad should be considered in the context of growing rapprochement with China due to deteriorating relations between Russia and the West. China supports Pakistan in the long-term confrontation with India, which Beijing considers its main rival in the Asian geopolitics.

As for the United States, it is trying hard to worsen Beijing's improving positions in Asia and, therefore, is expanding strategic cooperation with India, although Washington has relied on Islamabad as one of its closest allies in Asia for decades.

Wrapping up, the Chinese factor is always present in this puzzle and consistently and systematically increases its influence on the economy and politics both in Asia and worldwide. It is the Chinese factor that is getting to be a more dominant external factor of confrontation between India and Pakistan. Suffice it to say that in the beginning of November, after Beijing stopped the construction of an irrigation canal on the border of the Indian region of Ladakh in the same state of Jammu and Kashmir, Indian and Chinese military forces almost came against each other. Militancy of China, of course, has been considered serving the interests of both China and Pakistan. Beijing has also warned about a possibility of draining the Brahmaputra River watering the northeastern part of India. This was a response to New Delhi's intention to reduce the drain of the Indus River and its tributaries, which can lead to hunger in Pakistan.

The most important element of interaction between Beijing and Islamabad is also a joint project to build a high-speed railway Kashgar (a city in China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region) - Gwadar (Pakistan port in Baluchistan province, on the coast of the Indian Ocean). Another important subject of bilateral cooperation is the construction of Karakoram Highway, which connects Pakistan with China, and runs through the areas controlled by the Pakistani troops in Kashmir.

China has demonstrated her support to Pakistan at the international level as well (BRICS, which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). At the October summit of the BRICS in Goa, India was trying to secure a conviction of Pakistan by other member-states. However, China has sharply protested it and managed to have anti-Pakistani statements removed from the final resolution of the summit.

Meanwhile, the aggravation of tensions between India and Pakistan can also influence the fate of a number of regional organizations. Thus, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, has refused to participate in the summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, which includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, planned for November 15-16 in Islamabad. Due to deteriorated Indo-Pakistani relations, the summit was canceled. The First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of India, Subramaniam Jayshankar, went even further and admitted the possibility of failure of SAARC countries to work in this format in favor of another regional forum, Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation. It should be noted though that Pakistan is not participating in this Initiative, which brings together India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.

Despite the intensity of confrontation, a major war between India and Pakistan is unlikely. At least because both countries possess nuclear weapons. We hope that common sense still prevails, and the opposing sides will find the strength to stop at the edge, beyond which looms the prospect of full-scale armed conflict. It is especially important since both India and Pakistan have managed to amass a solid experience of reconciliation and détente in the last decade. The countries that are friends of both India and Pakistan are interested in achieving reconciliation. For example, Azerbaijan, for which India is a promising partner, while Pakistan is a strategic ally and fully supports the fair position of our country in the Karabakh conflict.