CIS IS ON THE CROSSROADS

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is still the most controversial organization disputed about its viability since its creation.

For many experts, the CIS has played its crucial role in subverting the Soviet Union and was supposed to be an organization that should contribute to civilian transition of former republics to independent states. Other experts believe that the CIS should be transformed into a prototype of the European Union and, given the existing ties, ensure maximum integration.

But by the 25^th anniversary of the Commonwealth, the number of member states has decreased from twelve to eleven after Georgia left in August 2008. However, Ukraine's participation in the organization is also very formal, considering that in March 2014 the new Ukrainian government announced the country’s withdrawal from the organization, and has been discussing the draft of relevant law since November 2016.

Disenchanted illusions

After a quarter of a century, illusions about the potential of the CIS in resolving the most acute conflicts in the post-Soviet area have noticeably dispelled. None of them have been solved so far. Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria remain an apple of discord.

Moreover, new conflicts arise on the same territory. In particular, the annexation of the Crimea, separatist formations in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine have actually forced Kiev to take a course towards withdrawal from the Commonwealth.

Conflict situations directly affect the level of economic integration within the CIS. As a result, new integration formations emerged in the Commonwealth - the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia) and the Union State (Belarus and Russia).

But even under these newly established integrated associations, it is still difficult to see close economic ties similar to those in the European Union. Meanwhile, cooperation within the CIS continues and even gives positive signals.

Format of the CIS and EAEU

The 73^rd meeting of the CIS Economic Council was held in Moscow on March 17. The participants approved the drafts of the Agreement on Joint Use of Experimental Complex in Kazakhstan, as well as the Interstate Radio-navigation Program of the CIS States until 2020. A range of issues related to the facilitation of the Interstate Program for Innovative Cooperation of the CIS States until 2020 was considered. In particular, the project of the Set of Implementation Measures for this program (2017-2020) was approved.

The participants also supported the concept of gradual establishment of a common labour market and regulations on migration of the labor force within the CIS countries.

On the same day, the International Economic Forum "CIS: A perspective vision " was held in Moscow, where Igor Shuvalov, Chairman of the CIS Economic Council, made an interesting statement.

He stressed the need to develop a mechanism for the interaction of the CIS and EAEU member states within the free trade zone, which makes the representation of the CIS Executive Committee at the EAEU necessary. Mr. Shuvalov warned that despite a rather extensive economic agenda, there was a big gap between the member states of the CIS and EAEU. "There is a certain gap between the member states of the EAEU and those who are outside or do not belong to the CIS free trade zone, like Azerbaijan, and we are afraid that this gap may increase.

During 2017, we need to develop a mechanism for cooperation among the countries that are part of the CIS and EAEU free trade zone. The most important thing is to ensure the representation of the CIS Executive Committee under the Eurasian Economic Commission, the format that will be convenient and efficient to work with, and representation of countries as observers, or, as it will be determined, those countries that want to work in the Eurasian Economic Commission”, said Shuvalov.

He thinks that such a representation under the commission should lead to a complete exchange of information.

Russian interests

According to Mr. Shuvalov, Russia is making considerable efforts to ensure the viability of the Commonwealth.

During the first years of operation, the CIS was remarkable for grouping of member states: on the one hand, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan favoring closer economic ties with the establishment of supranational bodies, and on the other hand, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Uzbekistan And Turkmenistan, who were against it.

Today, supporters of closer integration within the CIS have significantly strengthened their positions in view of the actual withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Georgia and Ukraine, as well as with the desire of Azerbaijan, Moldova and Uzbekistan to intensify cooperation within the CIS. Turkmenistan, as always, did not assume any obligations at state level. It would seem that in current situation Russia could accelerate the collapse of the Commonwealth in favour of cooperation within EAEU. However, Moscow is not interested in this: after all, the format of the Commonwealth can contribute to expanding economic ties to other countries of the post-Soviet area that do not join the new organization.