IDLIB BOILING

Idlib is perhaps the last challenging point of the long-standing conflict in Syria although the alignment of forces and positions of conflicting sides remain unchanged.

Nothing new

Idlib is a province located in the northern part of Syria and remains uncontrolled by government troops since the beginning of the war in 2011. Earlier, Russia, Turkey and Iran established a de-escalation zone there, which, according to the Russian media, soon became a point of attraction for all forces of the conflict, which left other territories that the Syrian army has gradually taken control over. According to various estimates, there are from 10 to 30 thousand jihadists of Al-Qaida, Jabhat al-Nusra and other smaller ones in Idlib.

In late August, Syrian Defence Minister Ali Ayyub said that Damascus would regain Idlib province and clear its territory either forcefully or through a reconciliation agreement. Russian officials have supported the position of Damascus saying that "terrorists must be knocked out of Idlib." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the current situation cannot be tolerated indefinitely, and Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov explained that the "nest of terrorism in Idlib" destabilizes the situation in the whole country. Observers believe that Russia is primarily concerned with the security of its military bases in Latakia and Khmeimim.

According to official sources, on September 4, the Syrian and Russian air forces carried out at least one large-scale bombing of Idlib. According to the London-based human rights watch centre in Syria, Russian military aircraft made about 30 sorties striking targets west of Idlib, in the Latakia Mountains and in the Al-Gab Valley. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, direct strikes destroyed a warehouse with explosives and a shop where militants stored drones. At the same time, Western sources reported that the Russian missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov blocked the airspace from the south and southeast of the British royal airbase of Akrotiri on Cyprus, which was used during the air raids  in April . Marshal Ustinov is conducting the largest in history military exercises in the Mediterranean including 26 warships and Russian navy ships, 2 submarines, as well as 34 military aircraft. The exercises began at the beginning of September and Moscow claims that this has nothing to do with the situation in Idlib.

Eventually, the US and its allies sharply opposed the military operation in Idlib. Washington fears the increased influence of Russia and Iran in the region. Donald Trump said that the possible offensive of the Syrian army in Idlib would be a "great humanitarian error". "Hundreds of thousands of people can be killed. Do not let it happen!", wrote Trump on Twitter. CNN sources in the Pentagon also argue that Washington is concerned about the security of the American military at the Et-Taif base in the Syrian province of Homs after the Russian statements claiming that "there are militants protected by the US military in the area". It is reported that the American side "warned Moscow not to challenge the US military presence", since this could lead to confrontation and the Americans are "ready for reciprocal actions."

Thus, the US and Russia are once again face-to-face with military confrontation. So, nothing is new in the situation with Syria. Formally, Russia and the West cannot agree on who is who in Syria as far insurgents, terrorists or oppositionists are concerned. And the most important question is how to identify and protect civilians in all this hodgepodge of people without any identifying marks.

Turkish interests

Incidentally, the humanitarian side of the issue is the main component of concerns of the Turkish leadership regarding the situation in Idlib. Turkey is concerned with a possible new wave of migration. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the number of Syrian citizens who may be forced to leave their homes in the event of a military operation in Idlib may reach 900,000. "The refugees are moving to our borders. This will end with a great humanitarian drama. They have nowhere else to run, except for Turkey. But we have 3.5 million refugees, Turkey can no longer accept them," President Erdogan said.

Turkey considers Idlib "an important factor not only for the future of Syria, but also for ensuring the security of Turkey itself." Just a few kilometres separates Idlib with the Turkish border. Turkey has repeatedly stressed that it will remain in Syria until "territorial, political and social integrity of Syria is ensured", since the danger emanating from the region directly threatens Turkey's national security. That is why Ankara closely cooperates in Syria with Iran and Russia, which support the Assad government, albeit remaining committed to the "Asad must leave" slogan. And that is why Turkey, a NATO member, on the one hand, agrees with the US actions, which consider Assad a dictator and war criminal, but on the other, severely criticizes Washington for its support of Kurdish militants considered terrorists by Ankara. At the same time, Turkey takes the main blow of the inflow of refugees from Syria.

Idlib was the main topic of discussion between the heads of Russia, Turkey and Iran during the summit held on September 7 in Tehran. Last spring, at the talks in Astana, the three countries signed a memorandum on the establishment of security zones in Syria, and Turkey was entitled to control the de-escalation zone in Idlib Province plus some areas in the provinces of Latakia, Aleppo and Khama. At that time, the Russian side did not support the desire of the Syrian regime to launch military operations in Idlib, but now the situation has changed. However, Erdogan in Tehran demanded that Idlib retain the status of de-escalation zone, warned that the province should not be "given to mercy" of Bashar Assad and that any attack on Idlib would lead to catastrophe, murders and a great human tragedy. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said that ground and air operations in the Syrian province of Idlib should be stopped immediately.

Apparently, following a heated discussion in Tehran, Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan included in the final declaration streamlined phrases "in accordance... with the spirit of cooperation that characterizes the Astana format." The leaders of the three countries called on militants in the Idlib zone of de-escalation for a truce, stressing that solving the problem with terrorists in the area is the key to establishing peace in the country. Putin said that the parties recognise the fact that the call for an armistice in Idlib will be heard, and representatives of armed groups "will be wise enough" to stop resistance and lay down arms. At the same time, the Russian president's special representative for the Syrian settlement, Alexander Lavrentiev, said that since Idlib province is the zone of Turkish responsibility, it must be responsible for the division of the opposition. In other words, the ball was, as before, on the side of Ankara. Meanwhile, the Turkish General Staff instructed the forces of its allies from the armed Syrian opposition in the north of Syria to bring the units into a state of high combat readiness, according to the Turkish media. Turkey also doubled the number of armoured vehicles and artillery batteries on the border with Syria and strengthened its 12 observation posts to control de-escalation in Idlib itself.

A dangerous dispute

Meanwhile, the situation is complicated by the possibility of striking peaceful Syrian population by any of the sides of the conflict. Western countries argue that the government army of Syria still possesses chemical weapons. According to the UN, on April 4, 2017 in the village of Khan-Sheikhun (Idlib)​​, the government forces used a nerve agent sarin, after which, as we remember, the air strikes of the air force of the coalition followed.

At the same time, Russia and Iran warn that terrorists from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham are going to use chemical weapons and blame responsibility on the government. The staging of a chemical attack in the Syrian province of Idlib may become a pretext for the "new aggression" of a number of states against Syria, said Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem. American media also claim that Donald Trump is considering the possibility of a strike against Russian and Iranian forces in Syria in the event that the president of the country, Bashar Assad, uses chemical weapons in Idlib.

The Russian side is sure that the terrorists are assisted by the employees of the White Helmets volunteer organization. This was said by Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia, Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov and Sergei Ryabkov. The Russian Centre for the Reconciliation of Conflicting Parties in Syria earlier reported that according to information received from the residents of Idlib, the preparations for provocation are under way in the area. The militants delivered two containers with a chlorine-based toxic substance to Jisr Al-Shugur.

The US rejects these accusations noting that "they do not have evidence of the presence of chemical weapons in the hands of the Syrian opposition," despite Russia's repeated statements. This was stated by the US Secretary of Defence James Mattis. The official spokesman for the US State Department, Heather Nauert, supported the White Helmets. "The Assad regime and Russia continue to make false accusations against the White Helms during a broad misinformation campaign, exposing their volunteers to serious risks... The United States and the international community continue to support them," she told reporters.

End of idyll?

All these contradictions have converged on Idlib. The only question is how far the US and Russia are ready to confront, for in case of a large-scale conflict and an open clash, there will be no clear winners. Russia does not need an operation in Idlib, as it will not be popular in the society. In view of the limited military capabilities of Moscow in the region, higher rates will require increased fees - physical losses and financial losses. The US, in turn, is involved in solving too many problems in Iraq and Afghanistan to ensure the security of Israel and burdened by an internal political split. Europe, on the other hand, does not need extra refugees at its shores, which will inevitably follow if the conflict widens. In fact, everyone is satisfied that the struggle in Syria is mostly conducted in the proxy-style, and the general phrases about the struggle of militants and the government, on protecting the civilian population and restoring the Syrian statehood are reliably covered up. The problem is that the situation may reach a boiling point, which can spoil the whole image of relative peace.