YELLOW CARDS FOR MACRON

Yellow vests have shaken one of the leading countries of the European Union, France, since the second half of November. That's how the supporters of the protest movement call themselves, demanding a serious review of the economic policy of President Emmanuel Macron.

Rebels in Paris

Traditionally, France has been known as a rebellious country. French population, especially certain social groups led by various political forces, can easily take the streets, demanding to ensure their political, economic, and social rights. Incidentally, such protests, general strikes and similar manifestations of popular discontent, which can usually take many days, often lead to success, forcing the government to take into account the will of the electorate and taxpayers. Therefore, the yellow vests movement undoubtedly fits into the logic of protest traditions of France - the cradle of modern European democracy, the country where the demands for freedom, equality and fraternity for all people regardless of their origin and material welfare were voiced for the first time in the new history.

However, there are a number of factors, which may help to single out the yellow vests from the experience of popular struggle for rights. These factors are not only of domestic nature but perhaps have some external influence related to France's foreign policy.

Unlike the previous demonstrations of the French protest, the organisers of protest movement were not opposition parties or trade unions that had always been ready to defend the rights of employees. Supporters of the movement are "protestants" from virtual social networks, which have no visible political forces behind them after at least two past weeks. It is not by chance that both the systemic and non-systemic French parties are watching the events from the outside, although one of the political forces expresses support for the yellow vests while the other condemns them.

Tens of thousands of French citizens put on yellow vests to protest the rise in the prices of gasoline and diesel from the beginning of 2019. Therefore, the protesters are often called "motorists" wearing yellow reflective vests symbolic for car drivers.

According to the government’s decision, gas prices in France should increase by 2.9 eurocents from January 1, and diesel prices by 6.5 eurocents per litre. In fact, the prices were already increased by approximately 23% for diesel and by 15% for gasoline during 2018. President Macron explains the need to implement this measure with environmental expediency. The government believes that the increase in fuel prices (primarily diesel) will inevitably reduce its use in the interests of the environment and will contribute to the speedy transition to alternative energy sources.

However, quite a few French people - and this is not only "yellow vests", but also a significant part of society that supports them, demand the abolition of government decisions, bringing the struggle for clean air into line with the ideas of social justice, preventing this struggle from deepening inequality and deterioration of the financial situation of ordinary citizens.

Decisive actions of the "yellow vests" have turned the protest movement into clashes with the police and put the government before a serious dilemma: suppress the insurgents, which means the inevitable bloodshed, or agree to at least partial fulfilment of their demands. A harsh test for the authorities was the demonstration of the "yellow vests" in Paris on November 24, which resulted in clashes with the police. Protestants refused to be stationed on the Field of Mars and, despite the ban of the prefecture, came to the Champs Elysees, where many hours of skirmishes with the forces of order took place. The police detained about 130 people. According to the French Minister of Interior, Christophe Castaner, over 103 thousand people took part in demonstrations throughout the country.

Activists of the "yellow vests" recognize the presence of differences within the spontaneous movement. One of its initiators, Benjamin Kushi, openly declared: "We do not and cannot have a single opinion. Disagreements exist within each group, within each region, but we all want to move in the same direction."

"Yellow vests" make it clear that their further actions, the scale of the movement will depend on the position of the president and the government, their readiness to listen to the opinion of protesters and take appropriate practical measures. At the same time, the heads of 12 regions of the European part of France called on the government not to increase the fuel prices next year. "It is necessary to take urgent measures and, first of all, to introduce a moratorium on tax increase from January 1. It is not about abandoning the idea of creating eco-friendly tax regime, but about making this regime socially acceptable," reads the open letter of the regional prefects.

Moreover, the French Senate, the upper house of the French parliament, voted in support of the draft budget for 2019. In particular, it is suggested to freeze the increase in fuel tax. However, it is difficult to believe that this document is ever adopted, since the National Assembly is unlikely to vote for it, because the representatives of Macron's La République En Marche! have the majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament.

President Macron and the government of Édouard Philippe express their readiness to listen to protesters, but at the same time, they are not going to give up plans for the increase of fuel prices. Although Macron acknowledged that "the French don't change their habits easily," he assured that the authorities would support those who want to change their means of transportation to less harmful to the environment. In other words, he advocated for a dialogue with the protest movement, but not to the detriment of his own position and decisions. President Macron may announce new benefits and subsidies to the poorest segments of the population in order to counter rising prices and taxes, but he definitely will not change his strategy.

And here comes the main question: to what extent the society is ready to provide real support to the "yellow vests"? The demonstration in Paris showed that the protest movement had already gone beyond the lower classes and has the approval of wider levels of the society. According to opinion polls, three-quarters of the French consider the protests of the "yellow vests" legal. However, it is a fact that the dominant middle class in French society as a whole does not want revolutions. Consequently, the society as a whole is seriously interested in finding some form of compromise between the authorities and the "yellow vests".

Trump's reaction

Meanwhile, there are still some questions and even suspicions regarding the emergence of the "yellow vests" movement. Some believe there is a possible connection between the ongoing protest action and Mr. Macron's foreign policy.

In fact, the protests coordinated through social networks and leading to the closure of roads, barricades and burning of cars and tires, clashes with the police and even victims (media reports about two dead) look like yet another "colour revolution", Maidan and the like in the post-Soviet space and in a number of Eastern countries. The use of a certain symbol of protest is very familiar: in France, it was "yellow vests", and in Hong Kong, for example, "yellow umbrellas".

This time, however, we can see the attributes of another "colour revolution" not in one of the post-Soviet, Asian or African countries living through complex internal processes under the pressure of geopolitical circumstances, but in one of the leading countries of Europe. If we assume that the protest movement was not a random and spontaneous event, we also have to admit that the "yellow vests" occurred just a few days after Emmanuel Macron declared the need to restore European sovereignty and to create a European army to defend the continent also from the US.

"We cannot ensure the safety of Europeans if we do not decide on creating a real pan-European army. We must have a Europe, which can defend itself, mostly on its own, without the United States. We must defend ourselves! From China, Russia and even from the United States," said Macron on the solemn ceremony dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the end of the World War I.

Thus, the French president explained the task of creating a pan-European armed forces not only by the need to defend Europe from usual suspects such as Russia and China. He specifically mentioned the US in the list of threats to the national security of his country and all of Europe. At the same time, Macron expressed his dissatisfaction with American domination in the world economy as well. He stated the need to build a more honest system of international trade, and not to accept the hegemony of a single country.

Obviously, the White House didn't enjoy Macron's statements. Although one can put forward a multitude of arguments confirming or refuting Washington’s involvement in the protest movement in France, , but it is clear that the Trump administration really enjoys the difficulties that Mr. Macron, the young troublemaker of the old Europe, and his government is experiencing.

In fact, Mr. Trump has explicitly expressed his position on the "yellow vests" in his Twitter account: "The large and violent French protests don’t take into account how badly the United States has been treated on Trade by the European Union or on fair and reasonable payments for our great military protection. Both of these topics must be remedied soon."

In other words, Trump has reminded his long-standing demand from France and Germany, the leading economies of Europe, to pay up to 2% of the EU GDP for the maintenance of the US army defending the continent. The last statement underlining the urgency to remedy the topics related to US's commercial and military interests can be considered a threat. Otherwise, the situation of the French president will be even worse. This is a sort of signal for Macron, who, by his initiative about the European army, actually declared his intention to spend money on strengthening the security system of sovereign Europe, rather than supporting the American presence in Europe.

Without exaggeration, we can say that the world community is closely watching how the French president is going to suppress the seemingly spontaneous movement of the "yellow vests" under the vigilant, if not oppressive, eye of his overseas ally.