TOTAL SPLIT-UP

Complicated Russian-Ukrainian relations that have seemingly receded into the shadow of other events resurfaced again on November 25 with an incident in the Kerch Strait. As always, the Russian and Ukrainian versions of the incident are completely different. Increasingly varying positions of Moscow and Kiev are prone to entail dangerous implications for the region, as many observers believe that the tensions will gradually increase before the presidential elections in Ukraine scheduled for March 2019.

Ukrainian authorities claim that Moscow is trying to establish control over the entire Azov Sea, hence the conscious escalation of the conflict in line with this plan. According to Kiev, on the morning of November 25, Russian military attacked and fired at the Ukrainian Navy ships Berdyansk, Nikopol and Yani Kapu, crossing the Kerch Strait from the Black Sea to the Azov Sea, and seized their crews. Ukrainians claim that the problem with access to their ports on the Azov Sea aggravated after the commissioning in May 2018 of a bridge across the Kerch Strait connecting Russia and the Crimea. The height of the bridge is 33 meters, which makes it impossible for about a quarter of Ukrainian ships to pass under it. Russia also delays foreign trade ships. Kiev claims that the actual semi-blockade and the clear violation of the treaty of 2003, which guarantees access to the Azov Sea for both Russia and Ukraine, has a negative effect on the Ukrainian economy. Mariupol and Berdyansk are two port cities on the Azov Sea. Significant volumes of products of the Ukrainian iron and steel industry goes through Mariupol, while Berdyansk has recently been declared a new Ukrainian naval base. In September, small armoured artillery boats were dispatched there by land, waiting for the arrival of patrol boats and minesweepers. Ukraine needs this so-called “mosquito fleet” of small manoeuvrable and mobile ships capable of solving operational tactical tasks at sea, “to repel Russia's aggressive actions in the region.” Some observers mention that the Russians were seriously concerned with these actions, although it is very difficult to believe that the small Ukrainian base in Azov could seriously frighten Moscow. Former adviser to President Putin, and now the opposition member Andrei Illarionov has voiced the more truthful version of the event, saying that Moscow’s main goal is to secure access to water resources, which is extremely necessary for the development of the arid Crimean territory. According to Illarionov, to gain control over the North-Crimean canal, built in the lower reaches of the Dnieper River, the Kremlin can really decide to oust Ukraine from the Azov coast.

According to Moscow, the incident in the Kerch Strait was a “border incident” and a reckless provocation that President Petr Poroshenko instigated to increase his chances to win the upcoming presidential elections in 2019. According to the latest polls, Poroshenko's rating is critically low. The results of a joint sociological study conducted at the end of November by the KIIS, the Razumkov Centre and the Rating sociological group showed that the leader of the presidential rating is Yulia Timoshenko, who is almost two times ahead of Poroshenko, while Poroshenko is almost on par with showman Vladimir Zelensky. Therefore, it is assumed that Poroshenko seeks to earn political points by making up the situation around the Russian threat, thus distracting the Ukrainians from internal problems. These suspicions were strengthened when President Poroshenko declared martial law, which will be in effect at least for 30 days. He failed to introduce martial law for a longer period, but the idea was successful, for under the martial law, there are things more important than the presidential elections.

However, Poroshenko’s move was understood neither at home nor in the West. Many local media outlets were puzzled as to why the martial law was introduced at the time when this could be done at a more appropriate time in the course of events in the southeast of Ukraine. In fact, Kiev was disappointed by the reaction of Western countries, especially because Poroshenko had asked the West to consider the issue of prohibiting Russian ships from entering European and American ports, and in the future, to stop any works associated with the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. Nevertheless, none of the European countries announced introduction of new sanctions against Moscow. In fact, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a telephone call to Vladimir Putin and both leaders agreed on irrelevance of taking imprudent steps. President Trump also vaguely stated that supposedly everyone should be more careful. The most serious step taken by the American president was that he refused to negotiate with Putin during the G-20 summit. CNN reported that given the incident in the Kerch Strait, the US was likely to begin preparations for sending warships to the Black Sea and that American intelligence aircraft were circling around the area, but, of course, no serious steps followed.

In general, the general tone of European and American media suggests that the West is no longer eager to defend Ukraine against Russia. After all, they have their own interests and actual problems such as Brexit, which has already driven everyone crazy, the emerging Frexit, political events in Germany, economic turmoil in Italy, and many more. Besides, Kiev is not a member of the EU and NATO. For example, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borisov said that the possible entry of warships into the Black Sea would lead to a serious crisis, have implications on the tourism industry in Bulgaria, and create problems with regional energy projects. In other words, no one needs the ships in the Black Sea. American Conservative openly asks the following question: “Who cares about the crisis in the Kerch Strait?” It is possible that Donald Trump also thinks a little bit differently. Knowing the character of the US President, it is possible to assume that he was hardly thoroughly aware of the essence of the incident and the significance of the cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk, so difficult to pronounce for any American, for Ukraine.

In addition to the Kerch Strait, the multifaceted Russian-Ukrainian conflict can also give birth to similar incidents in another place, which will be much more serious, because the participants will not be troopers, but ordinary people. Such as the division of churches, which seems to be a very important project for the current Ukrainian government. According to Foreign Affairs writes, since Poroshenko “has no chance of success in a military confrontation with Russia,” he has no choice but to strengthen the sense of national identity, “which will help the country to distance itself from its historical ties with Russia.” Independent Ukrainian church is conceived as an important element of Ukrainian statehood, and it will be associated precisely with the name of Poroshenko. But it is also possible that his name will be associated with serious religious clashes, because it is not known how the process of dividing churches will actually turn. Apparently, on the eve of the presidential election, Poroshenko does not intend to stop. On December 10, he signed a law on the termination of the treaty of friendship with Russia. This is a fundamental document of Russian-Ukrainian relations, which involves a strategic partnership between the two countries. Even many Ukrainian politicians criticised such a move, saying that it creates a legal vacuum in relations with Moscow. Incidentally, even the agreement on the joint use of the Azov Sea​​ is based on the friendship treaty, and now it will be harder for Kiev to defend its position.

Unfortunately, the recent events demonstrated that the Russian-Ukrainian relations leave increasingly less room for dialogue and give more reasons for the escalation of conflict. Alas, whatever is going on around the Crimea, in the Black and Azov seas, and in the Donbas has always been and will be a matter of rating and prestige both for the Russian and the Ukrainian authorities. The only difference is that the incumbent Ukrainian president, feeling his imminent political departure, seems ready to stake too much for the conflict, which can be dangerous indeed.