STAR WARS REVISITED

The recent fall of meteorite in Greenland was both unexpected and desired by the Trump administration. It fell just a stone’s throw from the American Early Warning Base (EWB) on the island. According to The Times, there is nothing the US military fears more than being blinded, suddenly vulnerable to a first strike and being, as they say in the jargon, “pearl-harboured”, similar to a tragic incident that took place on December 7, 1941, when the US naval and air bases in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii were defeated by a sudden attack of Japanese submarines.

In fact, the EWB in Greenland missed the meteorite, which is a serious reason to think about addressing possible space threats, given that the near-Earth orbit is increasingly populated by those whom the modern US defence doctrine mentions as the main potential adversaries in the event of war, Russia and China.

"The space environment is fundamentally changed in the last generation. What was once peaceful and uncontested is now crowded and adversarial,” the US Vice President Michael Pence said last week at the Pentagon, announcing the creation of American space troops who will protect American interests in space.

The US troops are increasingly dependent on GPS for navigation, satellite communications, space reconnaissance and early warning systems. There is a growing concern in the US that China and Russia are working to disable or even destroy US satellites, Pentagon officials say.

Potential opponents

Back in 2007, China hit one of its satellites using a ground-to-air missile, thereby demonstrating that it had high-precision weapons capable of hitting targets in space. In 2015, China created the Strategic Support Forces developed to streamline and improve the space, cybernetic and electronic combat missions of the Chinese army.

Russia advanced in space exploration even further, restoring and expanding the telescope network that existed in the USSR to observe the near-earth orbit from different parts of the planet, including North (Mexico) and South (Bolivia) America. Russia also has mysterious spacecraft in the orbit, which the US administration calls “killer satellites” capable of attacking other spacecraft. In October, the Russian military tested new systems for deactivating satellites, Tirada-2C to be commissioned this year.

Prestigious news and analytical media outlets are regularly publishing terrible forecasts, such as “the United States gears up for its looming battle with Russia and China” (Stratfor, December 17), “US ‘might lose’ war against China or Russia” (The Independent, November 16), “US military might ‘struggle to win, or perhaps lose’ war with China or Russia” (CBS News, November 14), “War with Russia? The new world war is approaching” (The Nation, USA, December 3).

Who’s going to deal with space?

US President Donald Trump thinks that in the near future military operations would move into space. In June 2017, he instructed the Pentagon to develop proposals on the new type of armed forces, the Space Forces. According to Trump, they should become the sixth military command of the US Army along with the land forces, marines, coast guard, navy and air forces.

The issue of creating independent space forces has been the subject of heated debates in the parliament, as well as in the White House and the Ministry of Defence for the last two years. Although military experts generally agree that China and Russia pose a threat to the US in space, not everyone seems conceived that an independent military body dealing with the space is the way to go.

In fact, the president does not have the right to announce the creation of a new type of US military. This requires at least that the Congress adopt a legislative act, as well as a complete restructuring of the US armed forces. After all, there are space divisions in almost all branches of the US military: Air Force Space Command (AFSC), Space and Missile Defence Command (SMDC), Naval Networks and Space Operations Command (NNSOC), Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR), and so on. In addition, National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) are also dealing with space.

Air Force History

The reform of the US Armed Forces, if implemented as President Trump views it, will become the largest in the last 70 years, since the new command, the US Air Force, appeared in 1947. However, that reform did not take place immediately, but has continued over decades.

During the World War I, military air operations were planned by the command of the land forces, and the pilots were outraged that their commanders absolutely did not understand the specifics of air operations. At the end of the war, the US Congress has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to solve this issue up until the end of the World War II, with as many as 29 bills failed. Only in 1947, the Congress adopted and President Harry Truman signed the law on military reform, which made it possible to create the US Air Force.

The first military division, Space Command of the US Air Force, was created in 1982. The idea of ​​restructuring the military-space command system first appeared in 2000 with the proposal of US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, but after the events of September 11, all attention was focused on the fight against terrorism. The issue was raised again in 2016, and was supported in the Congress by both the Republicans and Democrats.

In June 2017, lawmakers even included the proposal to establish the Space Forces in the draft defence budget for 2018. However, the military was against the proposal. In particular, Secretary of Defence James Mattis appealed to the Congress with a strong recommendation not to give full independence to space forces.

“Big breaking story” may not come true

At that time, this issue was withdrawn from the agenda. A year later, it was raised again at the highest level. In March 2017, President Trump insisted on the urgency to create the space forces. “My new national strategy for space recognises that space is a war-fighting domain just like the land, air and sea. We have air force, and we may even have a space force,” Trump said at a military air base in San Diego, California. He hinted that the idea came to him first as a joke, but he can seriously think about it: “You know, I said this the other day, because we are doing a tremendous amount of work in space, I said ‘Maybe we need a new force, we can call it ‘space force’. I was not really serious, and then I said, what a great idea, maybe we will have to do it. This can happen. That could be a big breaking story.”

Yet it seems that one has to wait until the ‘big story’ comes true. One of the main arguments against it is the technical difficulties associated with reassigning numerous personnel responsible for the launch and operation of military satellites distributed across various commands of the Department of Defence, including the US Air Force, the Navy and the National Intelligence Agency. This also requires high expenditures for the establishment of new managerial staff, which, according to various estimates, can reach $13 billion in five years.

After months of discussions in the Congress, the presidential administration and the Pentagon decided on the creation of a division called Space Forces Command (SPACECOM), which will not be independent, as Donald Trump wanted, but subordinate to the Air Force Command, similar to Marine Corps as an independent service under the Navy Command. President Trump signed the relevant decree on December 18th.

It is planned that the Space Forces will be completely established by 2020, mainly thanks to the transfer of specialised units from the US Armed Forces.

Under the US Constitution, the authority to create, regulate, and provide resources for the Armed Forces lies with the Congress. In February 2018, it will have to make a decision on funding available for the new military command in the military budget for 2020.

With Democrats in control of the House, the Trump administration is unlikely to see the Space Forces become the sixth independent branch of the US Army by 2020. “I’m concerned that Trump’s proposal would create additional costly military bureaucracy at a time when we have limited resources for defence and critical domestic priorities, and I do not believe it is the best way to advance U.S. national security,” said Democrat Adam Smith, who is expected to chair the House Armed Services Committee starting from January 2019.