FOGGY ALBION

The campaign initiated in the UK to withdraw from the European Union has entered a crucial phase. However, the final terms of the divorce between London and Brussels are still unclear, as widespread discussions and trials of British and European politicians have some delayed the formulation of clear definitions.

Divorce British style

At the end of November, the Council of Europe approved an agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom, scheduled to take place on March 30, 2019. On December 11, the Brexit deal was to go through voting in the British Parliament. However, British Prime Minister Theresa May cancelled the voting, motivating her decision by claiming that the agreement does not have the necessary support in parliament. Her administration stated that the decisive vote will be held until January 21. If we consider that the parliament will resume its work only on January 7, after the Christmas and New Year holidays, then it is clear that the Brexit discussions will have a maximum of two weeks before finalised.

May’s decision caused discontent of a significant part of parliamentarians. Even some of her conservative fellows demanded for immediate determination of Brexit conditions and initiated the process of vote of no confidence in the prime minister. According to its results, May has gained the support of 63% of the voters and retained the post of Tory leader and prime minister. But after that, the prime minister faced pressure from the Labour Party, whose leader, Jeremy Corbin, raised the issue of a vote of no confidence in May again. He called unacceptable the fact that the members of parliament need to wait almost a month to vote on such an important issue for the country as the Brexit agreement. However, the conservative majority of parliament rejected attacks from the leading opposition party. Nevertheless, this defensive gesture did not deflect the blow, which Theresa May’s government is trying to repel.

The Brexit agreement, on which depends the fate of Britain (not to mention the European Union), is hanging in the air. The main disturbing question is the intention of London to remain in the EU Customs Union for the period of transition, until an agreement on a free trade zone with the European Union is ready. The May government considers the membership in the Customs Union as the only way to prevent the establishment of a strict border regime with the Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland during the transition period. This causes a categorical disagreement of the opponents of the deal between London and Brussels, since the exit from the Customs Union was initially defined as one of the main points of Brexit. According to Prime Minister’s opponents including many Tories among them, due to the current draft agreement between Britain and the EU, Northern Ireland will be more connected with Brussels and Dublin than with London, because the agreement on the borderline with the Island of Ireland can be delayed.

Under serious resistance from part of the British politicians, Theresa May at the EU Summit held in Brussels on December 13-14 tried to get guarantees that the retention of a special customs regime between the Republic of Ireland (EU member ) and the rest of the UK will be limited in time. However, the Europeans made her understand that the deal would not be revised.

Thus, May found herself in a difficult situation, which could even be hopeless. It is possible that none of the possible options for Brexit will receive approval from the House of Commons. Since, in fact, the current version of the agreement between London and Brussels does not suit either the parliamentary majority or the parliamentary opposition. The EU is not going to revise the agreement, which initially opposed the UK’s withdrawal, and is now pushing it towards the option of ‘divorce’ that has already been negotiated and more or less satisfactory to Brussels.

Teresa May opts for ‘tough Brexit’?

It is possible that the deal negotiated between London and Brussels will still materialise. But there is less chance for this to happen because both the uncompromising British members of parliament and EU officials do not intend to give up their positions. The former do not agree with the terms of the transaction in principle, and the latter are not eager to give the green light to adjust it. Therefore, the UK Government released a statement about the start of full-scale preparations for the country's withdrawal from the EU without a final agreement.

In other words, Theresa May demonstrates that, regardless of EU pushing, she is ready to break the deal with Brussels without any new agreements regarding the movement of citizens, goods, trade and other issues. In fact, this is the same thing that a group of Tories, which have initiated the failed attempt to dismiss May from her post, are trying to achieve. Meanwhile, the government has already declared its readiness to allocate additional two billion pounds to ensure the work of transport, customs and other departments in the event of a “tough Brexit”.

In this regard, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs Matt Hancock made a noteworthy remark. Assuming that in the worst-case scenario of withdrawal after March 29, 2019, the UK may suffer from a serious deficit of medicines, he warned about the need to supply all the clinics and hospitals in the country with necessary medicines for half a year ahead and urgently purchase extra refrigerators.

Meanwhile, experts believe that from an economic point of view, the exit of Britain from the EU without agreements is fraught with great problems for the country. It is, in particular, the likelihood of increased duties and delays in deliveries due to customs control in the event of a “tough Brexit”. Moreover, Fitch Ratings even warns that Brexit without a deal could turn into a recession for the British economy and its overall decline in 2019 by 0.6%. The IMF forecasts for the United Kingdom are also disappointing, predicting the country a drop in the ranking of the most developed economies of the world - from the fifth place to the seventh place. It is assumed that Britain will be running after India and France.

By the way, experts from leading financial centres predict problems also for the EU economy as a result of the “tough Brexit”. IMF predicts a drop in EU economic growth of 1.5%. Therefore, the European Commission has published a plan of emergency measures, if the UK leaves the EU without reaching agreement, in order to "limit the damage in the absence of a deal."

Given all the expected difficulties associated with Britain’s leave, British politicians and experts do not rule out the expediency of holding a new Brexit referendum in the country. The first referendum was held on June 23, 2016, when 51.9% of Britons voted in favour of leaving the EU, while 48.1% of the population was against. According to the results of sociological research, 41% of Britons support Brexit in one form or another, while 45% in the case of a new referendum would vote for the EU membership. In particular, many Labourites are in favour of holding a repeat vote, although the party itself, Jeremy Corbin, officially supports the results of the first referendum. Speaking against Brexit, they see in the re-voting the only way out of the existing dilemma. However, the possibility of a second referendum is refuted by the position of the Prime Minister. According to Theresa May, this step can cause “irreparable damage” in the sense that “it will show millions of people who believe in our democracy that we are not capable of democracy.”

Nevertheless, the position of the incumbent British prime minister seems shaky in any case. The media is intensely exaggerating rumours about May’s early leave of the post in April 2019, immediately after the planned implementation of Brexit, as she continues to resist a squall of accusations that she was unable to realise the leave on terms acceptable to Britain and the European Union and contributed to the disunity of the nation on such a crucial issue. If the first claim seems arguable, because London is ultimately not the only party determining the terms for the country’s withdrawal from the EU, then the second claim against May’s policy has good reasons. Thus, the launch of a parallel collection of online signatures for petitions of supporters and opponents of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union demonstrates a real split among the British. Moreover, in less than a week, both proposals could easily reach 100 thousand votes.

The split among Her Majesty's subjects on the issue of Brexit is so obvious, and the further course of events is so unpredictable that even the British Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson declared the readiness of authorities to mobilise 3,500 troops into a state of alert in case of emergency situations. So, we can see that Foggy Albion is indeed covered with the fog. It is difficult to predict when the domestic political weather clears up in the UK, which, following its traditional sense of independence, is rushing to exit from the project called the European Union.