JIHADISATION OF CENTRAL ASIA

Following the recent talks in Doha, U.S. President Trump has announced the possible full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Taliban has even mentioned the exact date of withdrawal—a year and a half after the cessation of hostilities against the pro-American government. However, the news about the escape of 40 ISIS members from the Taliban captivity has been somewhat strange.

Leaving for purpose

In late January, Iranian news agencies reported that 40 leaders of the ISIS terrorist organization fled from the Taliban prison in Afghanistan. This has created confusion and further aggravated the alarming situation in Afghanistan. Iranian media has blamed the U.S. Army for the escape of terrorists claiming that the Americans are allegedly trying to strengthen the anti-Taliban movement. However, this does not seem a conceiving claim after the Trump administration reached breakthrough agreements with the Taliban leaders. In fact, the escape of ISIS militants has exposed the impotence of Taliban's strategic intelligence before the United States making Taliban more tractable during the negotiations.

Despite the ongoing attacks of Taliban on government agencies and individual detachments of the Afghan army, the territory controlled by Taliban has hardly increased over the past year perhaps thanks to the technical advantage of the improved and re-equipped security agencies controlled by the Afghan government. In recent years, Americans have increased the number of Afghan troopers and gendarmerie to 300 thousand people, while Taliban troops is slightly over 50 thousand people. In addition to quantitative and technical advantages, the Afghan armed forces also have material superiority over the enemy, making President Trump complain last year about trillions of dollars "stuffed into" Afghanistan. Young Afghan men enrolled in the state army receive an average monthly salary of $300-500, which is quite a good amount of money in Afghanistan. This allowance prevents possible change-over of newly recruited soldiers to Taliban or other radical political movements. However, the attacks of Taliban has resulted in casualties reaching about 22 thousand Afghan troopers only in 2018. Given the ongoing counter-attacks against Taliban, the American command has to keep about 14,000 troops (mainly from Special Ops Unit) in Afghanistan. Since an American soldier is more expensive than his Afghan counterpart, the maintenance of the "limited contingent" costs the Pentagon approximately the same amount as equipping the entire Afghan army. Administration of the U.S. President and businessman Trump views Afghanistan as an exorbitantly expensive burden. On the other hand, Americans are not going to leave Afghanistan just like that, because without peace with Taliban, all money and efforts invested in the country can quickly evaporate.

Jihad Showdown

Amidst the emerging peace between Taliban and government forces, supporters of the Islamic State strengthen their positions in the north of Afghanistan.

Since 2015, when ISIS declared an infamous "march on East Khorasan", confrontation between the jihadists and Taliban in Afghanistan has hardly ever stopped. During the first years of operations in Afghanistan, ISIS has been able to get the breakaway leaders of Taliban on its side. Later however the methods of "jihadisation" turned the population of the region against them.

Nevertheless, after the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, hundreds of ISIS militants from Central Asian began to return to their homes. Thus, after losing influence in the southern and eastern provinces of Afghanistan, jihadists have intensified in the provinces of Jowzjyan, Kunduz, Balkh and Takhar bordering Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In response, Taliban declared an uncompromising war against the ISIS and throughout the past year has hunted them in the valleys and mountain gorges. Threat of the revival of the defeated terrorist organisation in Afghanistan prompted to unite the forces of irreconcilable sides. Last summer, the government of Afghanistan even announced a temporary cease-fire with the Taliban, in order to give the latter an opportunity to throw out "foreign invaders" from the country.

Despite persecution, the number of jihadists in the north of Afghanistan is estimated at 4,000-5,000 people, which, given their combat experience, is a rather impressive military force. According to some reports, Gulmurod Halimov, the Minister of War of the Islamic State, has become the leader of ISIS in this territory. The former commander of the Tajik OMON (Special Police Task Squad, analogue of SWAT, R+) Halimov has pledged to return to Tajikistan and establish the Sharia Law. Despite the heavily guarded border along the Panj River, Tajikistan is afraid that some militant groups may leak through mountain passes and, using social instability in the country, outrage the population. Meanwhile, the Taliban, who has no plans regarding the Islamisation of Asia unlike the ISIS, will be "happy to help" jihadists to cross into Central Asia and thereby get rid of uninvited guests.

How much is the opium of the people?

In fact, the roots of processes taking place in Afghanistan today lie much deeper than they seem. They are connected with ethnic originality of the country and the preservation of the partly tribal system.

Despite constant wars and millions of refugees, the population of Afghanistan over the past twenty years has increased significantly and currently reaches about 33 million people. According to forecasts, with the current birth rate, the Afghan population will reach hundred million by 2100.

Pashtuns, the main supplier of fighters for Taliban, constitute more than 40% of the Afghan population. They are opponents are Tajiks living in the central and northern provinces of the country and making up approximately 35% of the total population. Turkish-speaking Uzbeks, Turkmen and Hazaras make up 20% of the population and live mainly in the northern and north-eastern regions of Afghanistan, near the borders with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

The population Afghanistan is increasing while the country remains one of the poorest countries in the world. Thirty-five years of continuing wars have completely destroyed the weak economy of the country. Despite the available mineral reserves, mining is hampered by the lack of infrastructure. 60% of the country's national income is made up of the export of opiates and their derivatives. Over the years, the words "Afghanistan" and "heroin" have become interchangeable, as this region provides more than 90% of the global production of heroin. Poor Afghan peasants are forced to grow opium poppy, which contributes to the development of drug trafficking and the total criminalization of the territories. Numerous military groups, in addition to the government forces, are also fighting for control over the production and channels of drug supply.

Who will get the power?

Increase in the activity of elements linked to the Taliban is also associated with the parliamentary elections held in October 2018, as well as the upcoming presidential elections. Despite the threats of the Taliban, more than 3 of nearly 9 million registered Afghan voters took part in the parliamentary elections to the National Assembly. It was the answer of the Afghan people, tired of decades of civil strife and intervention, to the question "Is democracy possible in Afghanistan?" Even the vagueness of prospects for political participation in making decisions about their future prompts Afghans to go to the polls. At the same time, the presidential elections, previously scheduled for April 20, were postponed to June due to the preparation of negotiations on a peace agreement with representatives of the Taliban.

In parallel with the Doha talks, a conference on reconciliation in Afghanistan was held in Moscow. The event organised by the Afghan diaspora of Russia has gathered politicians and activists from Afghanistan led by former President Hamid Karzai around the table with the Taliban representatives. Apparently, the Taliban did not mind having talks with the former president Karzai, unlike his counterpart, the incumbent president Ashraf Ghani, who has already called the Moscow talks "illegitimate" and noted that a peace agreement with the Taliban will not be concluded unless a national consensus on this issue is reached. Meanwhile, Taliban refuses to hold direct talks with the leadership of Afghanistan, calling it a "puppet of the United States." We will know whether the position of the radicals change very soon: in February, the U.S. and Taliban will hold the second round of talks in Doha, Qatar. Who knows, maybe the tactics of flirting with terrorists will be more effective than hard pressure?