GUARANTORS OF INTEGRITY

The increasing role of Turkey in the Syrian settlement may be one of the determining factors in the post-war restructuring of Syria. Ankara explicitly demonstrates its categorical rejection of the American plan to create Kurdish autonomy in the north of Syria, which is the cause of existing contradictions with Washington but is welcomed in Moscow trying to preserve the integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Ankara is ready for operation

Turkey has reaffirmed its determination to prevent the continued presence of Kurdish terrorist organisations in northern Syria. In particular, Turkey continues preparations to attack the strategically important city of Manbij, which has become home for the Kurdish Popular Self-Defence Forces (YPG)—the fighting wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Ankara considers both organisations affiliated with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) responsible for the deaths of thousands of people in south-eastern Turkey.

A few days ago, official representative of the Turkish President, Ibrahim Kalin, has made an important statement about the agreement reached between Moscow and Ankara on the implementation of roadmap for Manbij in accordance with the previously signed Turkish-American agreements. This means that Ankara, which is trying to prevent all threats to the national security and territorial integrity of Turkey emanating from Kurdish terrorists, has been able to secure fundamental support of Russia, who views Kurdish forces as a tool for realizing Western geopolitical interests in the region. That is why Moscow recognises Ankara’s claim to the US to comply with the terms of the Turkish-American Roadmap—an action plan for withdrawal of Kurdish military groups from Manbij agreed last June.

Ankara has repeatedly expressed its concerns over the US military assistance to YPG and PYD, as well as delays associated with the implementation of the roadmap. Contradictions between Ankara and Washington on the issue have become aggravated after Trump's decision on the withdrawal of American troops from Syria. At the same time, the White House has explicitly stated that the withdrawal of American military troops should not harm the interests of the "Kurdish allies" of the US. Therefore, Turkey warned about the imminent start of a military operation east of the Euphrates, as well as in Manbij against PYD and YPG, if the US does not achieve their voluntary withdrawal from these territories.

On February 5, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again called the US to follow its promises to Syria. Otherwise, Turkey “will take steps to eliminate the threats to its national security,” said Erdogan. He gave Americans to implement the Manbij roadmap only two weeks, after which Turkey should begin new anti-terrorist operations in northern Syria. "We are not afraid of American sanctions, and Turkey, in spite of everything, will create a security zone in the north of Syria," Erdogan said.

Turkish Minister of National Defence, Hulusi Akar, has also confirmed Ankara’s full readiness to launch a new military campaign in the north of Syria. "Our military operation in the north of Syria is not against ethnic Kurds. Our goal is to destroy the Syrian wing of PKK—PYD/YPG and to create a security zone."

In other words, Ankara is determined to establish a buffer zone along the Syrian-Turkish border east of the Euphrates. Apparently, even the voluntarily transfer of control over the territories outside Manbij, near Al-Arimah, from Kurdish forces to the Syrian government in the hope to prevent the Turkish offensive cannot prevent the Turks from doing so. Russian support to Turkey regarding the implementation of the Turkish-American roadmap on Manbij makes the predictions of Kurdish organisations unsound, for Moscow does not delude itself that the Kurdish forces continue to act as the main support of Americans in Syria and pose a threat to the territorial integrity of the Arab country.

The whole situation confirms that it is the major instigators and organisers of the Astana negotiation process—Russia, Turkey, and Iran—that continue to provide  practical support to the idea of ​​ inviolability of Syrian borders as the guarantors of peaceful settlement of the conflict. Therefore, Erdogan has made statements about Turkey’s support to the territorial integrity of Syria.

Erdogan agrees with Assad? Putin says 'Yes'

Although Ankara condemns the policies of his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad, and had previously demanded his resignation, it demonstrates support for political unity. Turkey’s support to the process of creating the new constitution of Syria, as well as holding free elections in the Arab Republic is also confirmed by the results of the Turkish-Russian talks in Ankara held in early February. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the parties "have exchanged views on the current situation in Syria and measures to advance political process, including the establishment of a constitutional committee as an important stage to resolve the Syrian crisis." Shortly after the talks, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced the creation of a Syrian constitutional committee, composed of representatives of Syrian civil society, government and opposition.

Yet another example of a joint plan of actions between Moscow and Ankara is an agreement on further cooperation in the Syrian province of Idlib. Shortly after the visit of Turkish delegation of the Turkish Ministry of National Defence to Moscow in late January, it was announced that the parties intend to continue cooperation in order to ensure peace and stability in Idlib. It is remarkable however that Moscow and Ankara agreed to eliminate the threats to Turkey emanating from the Kurdish forces in Manbij and to the east of the Euphrates. In addition, Russia and Turkey reaffirmed their commitment to cooperating in the fight against any terrorist groups on sovereign territories of Syria, provided that the territorial integrity of Syria remains.

All these circumstances again indicate that Turkish-Russian cooperation is one of the key factors in a long-term Syrian settlement.

Interestingly, Ankara does no longer oppose, at least not as categorically as before, the presidency of Bashar al-Assad, in fact acknowledging the relevance of participation of Syrian government forces in the negotiation process. We can assume that Ankara has finally dropped the idea of Assad's withdrawal from the political scene. According to Der Spiegel, "the situation may change now, because the Kurds who remain strong in the north of Syria, now lose the support of American troops. As they have decided to v withdrawing troops from the region: now their fate depends on the decisions of Moscow and Damascus. Erdogan can agree to reconciliation with Assad in exchange for the approval of the Turkish army’s military operation against the Kurdish forces." Thus, the author of the article concludes that Erdogan's priorities on Syria have changed: he no longer wishes Assad's withdrawal, but is trying to prevent the emergence of Kurdish autonomy led by YPG in Syria.

Obviously, Russia would be happy to such a scenario. Thanks to Turkey, Russia has an important ally in the region to maintain the territorial integrity of Syria. Russia is also trying to get maximum dividends from Ankara's ongoing opposition to Washington and its Kurdish allies in order to impede the growth of American influence in Syria. Remarkably, Vladimir Putin has recently recalled the Adana Agreement concluded between Syria and Turkey back in 1998. According to the document, Damascus agreed to take necessary measures against the forces hostile to Turkey located in Syrian territory. In fact, Damascus essentially agreed to cooperate with Ankara in the fight against PKK, which has later led to the expulsion of the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan from Syria and his subsequent arrest.

Experts consider the message of the Russian leader to be extremely significant. Thus, former Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis believes that Putin’s statement on Syrian-Turkish relations made after his January talks with Erdogan, may have opened a new horizon for the renewal of ties between Ankara and Damascus.

Certainly, the struggle of Ankara with Kurdish terrorist organisations, as well as the growing cooperation between Turkey and Russia in Syria contribute to the early establishment of peace. However, given the obstacles intentionally created by well-known global powers on the road to establishing the peace, Syria is far from peaceful life.