VOTING BY CONTRADICTION

On March 31, the citizens of Ukraine will vote for a new president. Absence of apparent favourite two months before the voting day will likely necessitate the second round of elections. Main competitors are the incumbent president, Petr Poroshenko, the veteran of Ukrainian politics, Yulia Tymoshenko, and a showman, Vladimir Zelensky. Opinion polls on the first and second rounds of elections give different results due to the importance of the region where the surveys were conducted. Thus, the leaders' positions often change from Tymoshenko (Sotsis Centre) to Zelensky (Sociological Monitoring Centre, Rating Group, The Yaromenko Institute of Social Researches, Info Sapiens) to Poroshenko (Kiev International Institute of Sociology, International Institute of Sociology, Razumkov Center). According to experts, if the Poroshenko-Tymoshenko pair gets into the second round of elections, the winner will most likely be Tymoshenko, but she may lose to Zelensky in a different pair.

"Army, Language, Faith"

If Poroshenko manages to be elected for another presidential term, he promises to join the European Union and NATO, turning Ukraine into a "great European power of happy people" and a "global agrarian leader", development of the IT sector and tourism, industrialization and growth of foreign direct investment, infrastructure projects. The question, however, is whether the voters, who are increasingly complaining about economic decline, corruption, declining living standards, high taxes and tariffs for utilities, believe Poroshenko. In 2018, Ukraine’s national debt reached $78.3 billion. According to Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin, about one million people travel abroad from Ukraine annually, mostly in search of a living. And if the situation does not change, the UN warns that by 2050 the population of Ukraine will decrease by 18%. These figures are primarily associated with the rule of Poroshenko, who after the election in 2014 promised that the Ukrainians would "live in a new way." In fact, Poroshenko had enough time to prove himself not only as a president, but also as the Secretary of the Security Council, the head of the Council of the National Bank, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Economy and Trade.

The incumbent president is well aware that he is better avoid focusing on social and economic issues during his election campaign. Instead, he has decided to focus on what he believes can be viewed as his achievements—national security, preservation of the Ukrainian language, and the renewed Ukrainian church. Street posters in various Ukrainian cities bear the name of the president and a short statement: "Army, Language, Faith".

Poroshenko believes that under the existing conditions of conflict in the south-east of Ukraine, "war and peace is one of the main themes of elections, because the people will choose not just the president, but the supreme commander". Poroshenko always underlines that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gained strength and have become one of the strongest on the continent during his tenure as the president. On 4 February, Poroshenko stated through ICTV channel that not only "NATO needs Ukraine, but Ukraine needs NATO too," because "an overwhelming majority of Ukrainian generals and senior officers have combat experience, making the experts and military from all over the world to come and learn from their experience." This is a clear yet tacit message for voters - the incumbent commander in chief is the only one who can ensure and support the current position of the army and, therefore, effectively confront the strong external enemy—Russia. Surely, Poroshenko is very cautious about his statements trying to find a middle ground with understanding that he cannot infuriate the radical electorate, but also realising that many Ukrainians are tired of war. Therefore, he occasionally mentions the need for concluding at least 'cold peace' with Moscow, but mostly attacks his political opponents for any statements about a dialogue with Russia, warning them that they can stumble upon Putin around the corner should they engage in a blind search for peace with Russia. In general, the Ukrainian president quite often mentions the president of the Russian Federation in his statements. For example, during the forum, where Poroshenko announced the nomination for the second presidential term, a screen behind the president showed a poster with Russian and Ukrainian presidents accompanied with the following statement: "Either Poroshenko or Putin". In his interview to the same TV channel, Poroshenko admitted that the highest appreciation of his work as president and, first of all, as supreme commander, was Putin’s statement that in Russia they would be "happy to any presidential candidate but Poroshenko". "No way!" added the head of Ukraine. Two other major achievements of Poroshenko are also based on countering Russian influence: the establishment of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which is now independent of the Russian Orthodox Church, and the strengthening of the Ukrainian language in the media and education.

Another strong side of the Ukrainian president against his rivals is administrative resources and many high-ranking supporters. Thus, the nomination forum has been attended by the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and Metropolitan of Kiev, Epiphanius, many ministers, prime minister, Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko, deputies, businessmen, former president Viktor Yushchenko, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, veterans of the Donbass war.

Past greatness, strength, honour and truth

An experienced Ukrainian politician Yulia Tymoshenko, one of the leaders of the Orange Revolution, is storming the presidential post for the third time. She has been nominated by the Batkivshchyna Party and has a real chance ever to become the first woman president of Ukraine. Nomination ceremony was held very similar to American standards - in a large hall decorated in the colours of the national flag and with a team of supporters, including the first president of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, the former head of the non-canonical Kiev Patriarchate Filaret. Ex-president of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili and the Brazilian writer Paolo Coelho participated in absentia.

Tymoshenko’s election program is called the 'New Deal' meaning the recovery of Ukraine's "former greatness, strength, honour and truth." Yulia Vladimirovna believes that it is necessary to create everything anew, including the social contract, economic course, peace strategy, and the constitution. Similar to most Ukrainian politicians, she promises to fight corruption and join NATO and the EU. As for the economy and social problems, she has so far presented a set of pretty standard promises: to raise salaries and pensions by three and a half times to make them equal to Polish ones (and thus to return thousands of migrant workers to the country), create a low interest rate microcredit program without collateral, reduce utility tariffs, etc. "I have seen a lot of things in my political life, but I have never seen such a miserable state my people is pushed to," Yulia Vladimirovna complains. Nevertheless, her promises neither specify the details of her program nor present real proposals: how the salaries will be funded, what jobs will be offered to thousands of migrant workers after their return to Ukraine, how the prices for utilities will be reduced? She does not have a clear plan for Russian-Ukrainian relations either.

Nevertheless, Tymoshenko has many chances to get into the second round, because she seems to be the most experienced and confident politician among the rest of the candidates. But will she eventually win? Same as with Poroshenko, voters have many complaints against her, which she had earned during her previous tenures as a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and twice as prime minister. Polls held by Rating Group show that about half of the Ukrainians want new people in the government without negative track record in leadership positions and not involved in corruption and abuse schemes in the past. Apparently, Tymoshenko does not qualify for this list: back in 2001, she was arrested on charges of 'smuggling Russian gas' spending eventually 42 days in prison; in 2011, she was sentenced to seven years for the misuse of power when concluding gas contracts with Russia. The case was called political, and in 2014, after the change of power in Ukraine, Tymoshenko was released and returned to politics.

Public Servant

High rating of showman Vladimir Zelensky appears to be a surprise at first glance only. In fact, everything is logical and understandable. His supporters are ardent opponents of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko and all other candidates. In other words, instead of Zelensky’s name, a ballot paper could very well read 'Against All' to make the results of the voting the same. According to reports by Sociological Monitoring Centre, Rating Group, the Yaremenko Institute of Social Researches, and Info Sapiens presented on February 4, the largest portion of respondents support Vladimir Zelensky—21.9% (Tymoshenko—19 , 2%, Poroshenko—14.8%).

Zelensky is known as the co-founder of the stand-up show 95-ыйквартал (95^th Quarter), producer of the popular TV series Сваты(In Laws), one of the characters in comedies Любовьвбольшомгороде (Love in the Big City) and Восемьпервыхсвиданий (Eight First Dates) and now the most rated TV series in Ukraine Слуганарода(Public Servant). It is the image of his hero Vasily Goloborodko from Public Servant that Zelensky ruthlessly exploits in his election campaign. A former schoolteacher, now President Goloborodko, is a popular favourite, incorruptible, honest, principled, albeit naïve, public figure, who is very inexperienced in politics. Obviously, he is not familiar with the theories of international relations and the works of Machiavelli, but he's talking like a hero from the old Soviet textbooks: "Our deeds should not put us to shame in front of our children and parents. Well, all of us, of course." It looks like a strange mixture of screen fiction with real life. One can find many billboards all over Ukraine advertising 'The next president. Public Servant', or Zelensky, or maybe all at once. Nomination of Zelensky also looked like a TV show, when the TV channel 1+1 presented Zelensky's New Year address to Ukrainian people instead of the one by the actual president Poroshenko. Incidentally, 1+1 belongs to businessman Igor Kolomoisky, a former governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region who lives in Israel and has very difficult relations with Poroshenko. Therefore, Zelensky is viewed as a protégé of Kolomoisky. Apparently, the ex-governor is trying hard to remove Poroshenko from the presidency, although Zelensky claims that he and Kolomoisky are only partners in business.

Zelensky’s election campaign is very creative, but it is based entirely on general promises and mundane criticism. For example, he pledges to build "Ukraine of dreams" for Ukrainians, where every young family will be able to afford to build a country house, and people will receive pensions ten times larger than the current ones. Regarding the Crimea and Donbass, Zelensky is going to hold public talks with Putin and put the outcome to a general vote. He is making a reality show on his election campaign, and has even posted a video inviting the voters in his Ze! Team (but only those who have never been involved in politics). "We will make my program together, the whole country. Then we will find solutions to all problems. We will then bring them to life," Zelensky (or Goloborodko?) says.

Despite populism, absurd style and behaviour, Zelensky has charisma and basically says what people want to hear no matter how many of his promises can be translated into reality. He is so popular because people want to experience a little bit of joy and are tired of 'old' politicians. But experts express concerns over low turnout of Zelensky’s voters at the polling stations—after all, watching a TV series or a reality show online is quite different than leaving home for voting. On the other hand, because Zelensky has not been involved in politics may turn the voters against him, for in reality, inexperience in governing the country can hardly be considered an advantage for any presidential candidate. Therefore, it is still difficult to predict what exactly will play for or against Zelensky.

Wrong direction

As for other politicians with the most promising ratings, Ukrainian media indicates Yury Boyko from the Opposition Platform For Life as a candidate of the Russian-speaking south-eastern region of the country. More than 10% of voters are ready to vote for him. If elected, Boyko plans to establish good neighbourly relations with Russia, to approve the non-aligned status of Ukraine, to reduce tariffs for housing and utilities. By the way, the modelling of the second round showed that in the Boyko-Poroshenko pair the incumbent president is leading with a very small difference (23% versus 21%). Former Minister of Defence of Ukraine, the liberal Anatoly Gritsenko is supported by 8.4% of respondents and the leader of the Radical Party, Oleg Lyashko, by 6.5%. In total, CEC has registered 44 candidates setting a record in the history of presidential elections in Ukraine.

In other words, Ukraine is deeply distraught on the eve of the presidential elections. Public opinions and moods are very different. The most disturbing thing about the ongoing processes is that much is done by contradiction. Not only Zelensky’s rating is an indicator of how tired Ukrainian voters are, but in fact many support Poroshenko just because they do not want to see Tymoshenko in power, and vice versa. So, the elections in Ukraine are unlikely to be calm. At the beginning of February, over 20 criminal cases were initiated in connection with violations, while Petr Poroshenko was accused of bribing the voters in the amount of two billion hryvnia (about $74 million).

The survey conducted by the Social Monitoring Centre, the Yaremenko Institute of Social Researches, Info Sapiens and Rating Group has demonstrated that almost 70% of respondents believe that Ukraine needs a leader who can unite, reconcile and reassure the society. More than half of the respondents have expressed unwillingness to participate in protest actions to defend their rights and interests...