PEACE CONFERENCE OR DECLARATION OF WAR?

Apparently, the international situation around Iran becomes increasingly dangerous. The United States and its Middle Eastern allies led by Israel openly threaten the Islamic Republic with war taking concrete steps to build an anti-Iranian coalition.

War threat and "Peace in the Middle East"

A statement about a possible large-scale war against Iran was made at the Peace in the Middle East conference held in mid-February in Warsaw. Although the title of the event contains a reference to the whole region, the participants of the conference, primarily the United States, Israel and the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, could not hide its pronounced anti-Iranian orientation. Particularly active was the position of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who called for the use of military methods to overthrow the Iranian government.

Remarkably, Netanyahu even called the war with Iran a common interest of the conference participants, including the Arab countries. Although the final press release of the Netanyahu administration replaced the word "war" with "opposition", Netanyahu’s meeting with representatives of the Arab monarchies leaves no doubt about their unanimous desire and, as stated in the document, "common interest" to prevent further strengthening of Tehran’s regional positions along the entire perimeter of the Middle East from Syria to Yemen’s Houthis movement. In fact, the United States, which has managed to split the relatively unified approach of Muslim countries to Israel and its policies, including against the Arabs themselves, actively contributed to the expression of such a "common interest" by creating a new geopolitical image of the Middle East.

Tehran reacted sharply to the Warsaw demarche of its enemies. During the Munich Security Conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that "the risk of war between Iran and Israel will continue to grow if the world community continues to turn a blind eye to violations of international law by Israel and the United States." In particular, he meant the Israeli bombardment of the Syrian territory, where the main targets of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) were Iranian military targets.

The following statement of the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was quite remarkable in the context of Tehran’s appeals to the "inactive" world community, particularly Europe. "The tension between Iran and America is currently at its maximum," Rouhani said referring to the failure of the Warsaw Conference. Apparently, the Iranian leader was referring to the position of the European Union, which did not want (explicitly and unequivocally) to join the openly anti-Iranian campaign of the other conference participants in Warsaw.

The Chinese media agency Xinhua described the outcome of the Warsaw Conference as "another defeat of Washington" in achieving its anti-Iranian goal because the EU "refused to be part of the U.S. conspiracy."

Given the blatant American-Israeli offensive against Iran, the position of the European Union on Iran is indeed complex and ambiguous. On the one hand, Brussels introduces sanctions against representatives of the Iranian regime associated with hostile activities of the Iranian special services in a number of EU countries (in particular Denmark, France, Belgium and the Netherlands), and also criticises Tehran because of its ballistic missile tests. On the other hand, the EU fundamentally disapproves the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Tehran.

As for Iran, even the tone of official statements shows Tehran’s willingness to hold an active dialogue with Brussels. They contain appeals to the EU to abandon double standards in its Iranian approach and assurances that the nature of Iran's missile development is exclusively defensive and deterrent. Tehran also states that the accusations of Europeans about Iranian intelligence services conducting terrorist activities on the territory of the EU member states are groundless.

Pointing to these circumstances in one of his statements, Iranian Foreign Minister complained that France, the United Kingdom and Germany were "not doing enough" for Iran to benefit from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCAP) dealing with the Iranian nuclear program.

Obviously, Iran has enough reasons to hope that the Europeans, in principle, can do "enough" to establish full-fledged cooperation with Iran. Leaders of the leading EU states have invented a mechanism allowing European companies to bypass increasingly stringent anti-Iran sanctions imposed by Washington. However, it is not accidental that Tehran constantly underlines that Europe is acting "very slowly and not too productively" in this direction. Since Europe is under strong pressure from the U.S., which is well aware that restrictive measures against Iran will not give the expected effect without full support from the EU.

Interestingly, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Gina Haspel, made an explicit statement in this regard. She said that Iran is complying with the nuclear deal, but it does so only to receive investments from the EU. In other words, Haspel recognised that the US anti-Iran sanctions were not a response to Tehran’s failure to fulfil its obligations under the nuclear deal, but a deliberate attempt to weaken Iran, including by preventing its full cooperation with Europe. It is also interesting that by trying to weaken Iran, which, according to Washington, should not receive investments from the EU, the U.S. also expects to weaken the economic positions of Europe as well. Therefore, it is clear why the leading EU states are in no hurry to endorse the creation of the anti-Iranian coalition led by the U.S. and Israel and declare support to it. But will the EU be patient enough to continue its line against American measures of persuasion in the context of the growing anti-Iranian strategy of the U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies? This question is still open.

Tehran promises revenge

Interestingly, a major terrorist act took place in Iran during the anti-Iran conference organised by the United States in Warsaw, when a suicide bomber drove his car to the bus carrying the soldiers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan. The bus explosion killed and injured dozens of IRGC personnel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif expressed doubt about the coincidence of these events: "Is it no coincidence that Iran is hit by terror on the very day that the Warsaw Circus begins? Especially when cohorts of same terrorists cheer it from Warsaw streets and support it with twitter bots? U.S. seems to always make the same wrong choices, but expect different results," Zarif wrote on his Twitter account.

The so-called Jaish ul-Adl terror group created in 2012 by former members of the Jundullah organisation defeated by Iran, which operated both in Iran and in Balochistan, claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack. Meanwhile, this terror attack is not the first one committed by Jaish ul-Adl this year. It also claimed responsibility for the bombing in Zahedan, the administrative centre of Sistan and Balochistan, on January 29, injuring three policemen. Shortly after, on February 1, militants of Jaish ul-Adl attacked the IRGC headquarters in Nishehr, killing one and injuring five people.

The latest terrorist attack, which killed and injured many members of the elite in the Iranian army, provoked numerous threats from Tehran not only against the terrorists, but also against the states that might be involved directly or otherwise. This includes, in particular, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It is remarkable that in these statements, Tehran blames not only the Arab monarchies, but also Pakistan. Apparently, Tehran views the intensification of terrorist activities along the Iranian-Pakistani border as one of the consequences of intensifying Pakistani-Saudi alliance.

Either way, demonstrating its readiness to repel any external threat, Iran conducted major navy exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, during which the conditional enemy was struck in the Persian Gulf, on the Bosphorus, in the Arabian Sea and in the Indian Ocean. The exercises were first performed shooting from military submarines. All of this is a touch of the escalation of tensions in the region, unfolding amid external attempts to weaken Iran and its determination to repel possible external aggression.

Meanwhile, the unprecedented pressing on Iran from the West manifested, in particular, in toughening sanctions against the country, has a definite impact on domestic political and economic situation in Iran. Discontent of the most conservative forces with President Rouhani, whom they had earlier criticised for his tendency to reach agreements with the West, is growing. In addition, there are signals coming from conditionally liberal circles, which the U.S. and its allies are trying to make use of using their anti-government sentiments. Economic life in Iran is going through a crisis and a general deterioration in the material situation of population. Iranian officials also acknowledge the fact of the heavy challenges that the country is currently facing in the economic sphere.

Undoubtedly, all these factors have a negative impact on the social situation in Iran. At the same time, almost monolithic determination of Iranians to resist external encroachment on the sovereignty and security of their state is just as obvious. In this sense, the conflict between Iran and the West, primarily the U.S., which cannot accept the very existence of Iran as a major regional player, will inevitably grow. Especially considering the presence of Israeli factor, which plays an instrumental role in building the anti-Iranian coalition and considers a strong Iran as a direct threat to its interests in the Middle East.