TO AVOID THE WAR

Apparently, the next round of tensions between India and Pakistan is gradually declining. However, this does not exclude the likelihood of escalation in the future. The ongoing confrontation between New Delhi and Islamabad constantly confirms that the threat posed by the conflict between the two nuclear powers is dangerous for all of humankind.

Escalation: Facts

Relations between New Delhi and Islamabad seriously deteriorated during the first weeks following a major terrorist attack in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which killed over 40 members of the Indian security forces. India accused Pakistan of supporting terrorist organizations, in particular Jaish-e-Muhammad, which is fighting for the control of Kashmir by Islamabad and has taken responsibility for the attack. The government of Pakistan denied such accusations and invited the Indian authorities to conduct a joint investigation of the bloody act of terror in Kashmir.

India rejected the proposal of Islamabad, as it considers the ruling circles of Pakistan connected with terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, which does not require any evidence. Therefore, New Delhi rejects any external mediation initiatives between India and Pakistan. Indian Foreign Ministry explicitly stated that there is no need to involve third parties to resolve the conflict around Kashmir. New Delhi believes that the India-Pakistan dialogue has a chance of development only if Islamabad makes tangible efforts in the fight against terrorism. However, Pakistan views this approach as an evidence of India’s uncompromisingness and declares that it is pursuing a determined anti-terrorism policy, which is in the interests of Islamabad.

Amidst these categorical mutual verbal attacks, both sides have taken steps to demonstrate their combat power, readiness to defend their positions on the Kashmir issue, which is an apple of discord between Indians and Pakistanis since the liberation of Hindustan from British colonialism. In particular, the Indian Air Force attacked the largest militant camp of Jaish-e-Muhammad in Balakot, Pakistan. New Delhi announced the destruction of a significant number of terrorists. However, according to Islamabad, Indian military aircraft struck the deserted forest. In turn, Pakistan shot down two planes of the Indian Air Force and captured one pilot. In addition, Islamabad responded by hitting military targets in Jammu and Kashmir, while the Indians shot down a Pakistani F-16 fighter, after which Pakistan closed its airspace.

Then the shootings in the border areas became more frequent. According to Islamabad, as a result of attacks from India in the Pakistani part of Kashmir, two military and six civilians were killed. Indians, however, report that the Pakistani military killed one resident living in the Indian part of Kashmir, her two children, and seriously injured the head of the family.

On March 6, New Delhi reported on the shelling by the Pakistani military of Indian checkpoints and territories along the contact line in the Jammu and Kashmir.

Indian army fired on the positions of the Pakistani military. Although all these reports confirm the ongoing escalation of confrontation between India and Pakistan, a number of facts indicating a gradual decline accompanies them.

Prospect of de-escalation

On February 27, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan called on the Indian leadership to resolve the crisis around the disputed Kashmir region through dialogue. He justified his position by saying that "further escalation of tensions between the two neighbouring countries runs the risk of spinning out of control."

As a gesture to de-escalate the situation, Pakistan announced its intention to resume railway communication with India. At the same time, Islamabad opened the airspace above Lahore bordering India, which was closed to commercial flights in late February. In addition, Islamabad demonstrated a goodwill and returned to New Delhi the pilot of the Indian Air Force downed over Pakistani territory. Pakistani television channels broadcast a video message from the pilot, in which he told that the Pakistani military had rescued him from revenge of local citizens and provided him with medical assistance.

But the main thing is that Pakistan announced the detention of several dozen members of banned organizations, including two close relatives of the leader of Jaish-e-Muhammad. According to Islamabad, a number of religious institutions and educational institutions run by banned Islamist groups have been taken under the control of the Pakistani government. These steps were presented as part of a nationwide fight against terrorism.

New Delhi expressed no particular satisfaction with the statements coming from Pakistan. India insists that Islamabad takes decisive measures against Masud Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Muhammad, and also implements a number of other measures that could be regarded by the Indian side as a real suppression of terrorist activity in Pakistan.

However, India also makes it clear that it tends to resolve the situation. In any case, the Indian ambassador, previously recalled from Pakistan after the terrorist attack in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, returned to Islamabad. Pakistan also announced its intention to return its ambassador to New Delhi. This confirms that both sides are clearly not interested in further escalating the confrontation.

The nuclear arsenals of India and Pakistan are capable of bringing the conflict to the most terrible end for both sides, so New Delhi and Islamabad are aware, in fact, of the senselessness and futility of a big war between two nations. The outcome of any tensions between India and Pakistan, regardless of mutual shooting or air strikes, is the inevitable de-escalation. Alternative is a disaster that threatens not only India and Pakistan, but also the whole world.

Another issue is that certain global centres may be interested in permanently forcing the Indian-Pakistani confrontation. In particular, the West is interested in managing processes to contain the booming Asian economies. For example, India is one of the obvious economic and geopolitical competitors of the West, but its conflict with Pakistan can be used in the context of containing not only India itself, but also China, which maintains close relations with Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan is dissatisfied with the periodical flirting of the United States with India, which, however, does not want to be a part of the American game against Russia. Such oddly intertwined factors completely confuse the participation of both India and Pakistan in the activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where China and Russia are the main actors.

Indo-Pakistani confrontation is an indicative component of a global mosaic of complex relationships between the largest power centres, balancing on the verge of a world conflict. However, both India and Pakistan should be interested in finding a common formula to put an end to a creeping war, to which the Kashmir issue is persistently pushing both nuclear powers. The solution of the problem may lie in the creation of common Asian security and economic integration systems, within which India and Pakistan will inevitably play one of the key roles. Signals of this perspective are periodically seen not only from New Delhi and Islamabad, but also from Beijing, Moscow and other Asian and Eurasian centres interested in developing a secure and closely integrated continent and who consider themselves as potential and existing partners of India and Pakistan.