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Pashinian failed to change the format and agenda of the Karabakh talks

Author:

18.03.2019

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian called a joint meeting of the Security Councils of Armenia and the so-called Artsakh, a separatist self-proclaimed Armenian entity in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, an unprecedented event. Pashinian now believes that "the relations between Armenia and Artsakh are taken to a whole new level", although he did not specify how the meeting of the Security Council of Armenia gradually turned into a "joint meeting". Nevertheless, we must admit that the event was a truly unprecedented incident in terms of international relations. It is difficult to recall another such case, when the Security Council of one state discusses the issues vital for its state with the Security Council of another "state" on the territory of a third one. Besides, Pashinian insists that he is not authorised to speak on behalf of Karabakh, as it has its own authorities, which, in his opinion, must be a party to the negotiations on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "The main question is who represents the people of Artsakh or, as they say sometimes, the Armenians of Karabakh. There is no one in the negotiation process who has the authority and legitimacy to represent the people of Artsakh," Pashinian said.

In fact, Armenian Prime Minister admitted that they recognise the Armenian community of Karabakh as "the people of Artsakh", which, by the way, along with the Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh, is recognised as an interested party in the 1992 OSCE Helsinki Final Act. Spokeswoman of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Leyla Abdullayeva, also drew attention to this fact. "By voicing the idea of 'Karabakhi Armenians', Armenian Prime Minister in fact put an end to the word game, as he stated that Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh were not the Armenian people, but community," Abdullayeva said. She noted that if Armenia holds the Security Council meeting in Khankendi, then there is no longer any need to include the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiations.

In general, one can notice overtones of fussiness and contradiction in the recent statements and actions of Armenians. According to the Armenian newspaper 168 Zham, it was the recent statement of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs that caused the urgency in holding the Security Council meeting, although the agenda of the meeting did not contain any official report. "After the statement, the Armenian leadership in fact found itself in a deadlock situation. On the one hand, Pashinian cannot reject his own statement about Artsakh’s return to the negotiation process, on the other hand, he cannot directly participate in the negotiations when the issue of Artsakh’s participation is out of the scope of discussions. This forced Nikol Pashinian to hold an on-site and emergency meeting of the Security Council in Artsakh. It is also possible that this is an attempt to make an impression before the meeting with Aliyev, as if Artsakh is indirectly involved in the negotiation process, thus justifying his meeting with Aliyev," the newspaper writes.

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group confirmed the information about the forthcoming meeting of Nikol Pashinian and Ilham Aliyev. Hopefully, there is a chance to resume high-ranking talks after a long pause. Although the exact date of the meeting is either not yet scheduled or disclosed, the OSCE statement makes it possible to make some assumptions regarding the agenda of the meeting.

Firstly, if the President of Azerbaijan agreed to meet with Pashinian, it means that they are going to discuss substantive issues, practical steps of settlement, on which Baku and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs insist. According to the statement of the official representative of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry "Azerbaijan supports the OSCE MG’s efforts to resolve the conflict through intensive negotiations based on tangible results," Leyla Abdullayeva said.

Secondly, the mediators urge the parties to refrain from statements and actions which may require unilateral changes in the format without the consent of the other party. As noted by Russian political analyst Alexander Dugin, Pashinian  is going to take part in the talks without preliminary conditions, which is an indication of a good progress in the settlement process. "I think one should not listen to Pashinian, but look at his actions. If Pashinian agreed to meet with the President of Azerbaijan, this means that despite his rhetoric, he is moving towards a rational solution of the issue and is ready to discuss the roadmap," Dugin said.

The leader of the National Self-Determination Association, Paruyr Hayrikian believes that it is the Armenian authorities that should be concerned by the statement of the OSCE Minsk Group. "The statement contains a clause that is directly addressed to the initiative of our government, that is, Artsakh should become a party to the negotiations. In other words, they hint to Nikol Pashinian that he should not make this decision on his own, but coordinate it with Azerbaijan," Ayrikian said. And his opinion is also shared by the majority of Armenian experts.

Thirdly, the co-chairs confirm that in addition to the principles of territorial integrity and the right of peoples to self-determination, a fair and lasting settlement should also take into account additional elements proposed by the presidents of the co-chair countries in 2009-2012, including the return of territories adjacent to Karabakh to Azerbaijan, the temporary status of Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees of security and self-government, a corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh, determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through legally binding expression of will, the right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence, international security guarantees including peacekeeping operations.

Obviously, neither the format nor the agenda of negotiations has changed. No matter how Nikol Pashinian is trying to share responsibility for the inevitable future compromises with the leaders of the Karabakh separatists, he will have to negotiate individually and within the existing framework of negotiations.



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