GEORGIA ON THE VERGE OF CHANGES

The beginning of 2019 turned out to be quite difficult for the ruling Georgian Dream party of Georgia, as members of parliament began to leave the party. Relations within party members began to deteriorate rapidly shortly after the High Council of Justice submitted to the parliament a list of judge candidates for the Supreme Court of Georgia. Neither the situation in the opposition camp is better after the defeat in the presidential elections. It seems that the social and political life of Georgia experiences an unprecedented crisis of confidence.

Abandoned Georgian Dream

The split in the Georgian Dream began after a judicial scandal. The parliament had to elect new judges to the Supreme Court of Georgia, which traditionally has always suffered from a shortage of judges. But the list submitted to the parliament included the names of several persons with scandalous reputation. Some of them under the previous government were accused of fulfilling political orders of the United National Movement party led by Mikhail Saakashvili.

Relations between a group of deputies who were affected by the behaviour of the former "rulers of the law" and the majority of the ruling party began to inevitably deteriorate.

Several reputable politicians, including Eka Beselia, who has been elected as Vice-Speaker of the parliament, left the Georgian Dream in a short time. Beselia also left the post of the Chairman of the Legal Committee of the parliament. Shortly after, a compromising video featuring Beselia appeared on the global network. It could well be the judges openly opposing the deputy that released the video. According to Georgian Justice Minister Tei Tsulukiani, this could be an attempt of "moral terror".

"I want everyone to know that neither Eka Beselia, nor another woman are individuals who can be frightened, stopped or compelled to surrender," Tsulukiani emphasized.

Although the "unreliable" judges, whose names appeared on the list, recalled their candidacies, it was too late to stop the spread of the scandal. After Beselia, Gedevan Popkhadze, Beka Natsvlishvili, Levan Gogichaishvili and Zviad Kvachantiradze also left the Georgian Dream. Zaza Khutsishvili, Mirian Tsiklauri and Gia Zhorzholiani also plan to leave the ruling coalition. But the party has lost its constitutional majority in parliament even without these departures. Although the leaders of the Georgian Dream state that they control the situation, the image of the party has been seriously damaged.

As a result, the founder and the actual leader of the party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, decided to include "manual control" and held meetings with disgruntled members of the ruling majority.

Updating the Dream

According to many analysts, in the modern history of Georgia, the problems of the ruling party begin at the end of the second parliamentary term. For New Georgia party experienced the same problem back in 2003, while its successor, United National Movement, in 2012. In either case, the ruling coalition was split off by the internal opposition, which achieved success in a short time. The reason for this phenomenon may be the stagnation of internal processes within the ruling elite.

Maybe that is the reason why after the resonance departures of the members of the "old guard", Georgian Dream decided to update the team. According to the speaker of the Georgian parliament, Irakli Kobakhidze, bringing new people to the team will be one of the most important preparations of the party for the 2020 parliamentary elections.

"The ongoing processes in the party will open doors to new, motivated, future-oriented people," the leader of the parliamentary majority Archil Talakvadze said.

Former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili will most likely manage the renewal process. He has returned to the Georgian Dream and currently holds the post of political secretary. Many experts believe that Garibashvili’s return to big politics is positive. Even Eka Beselia considers the former premier a significant and promising political figure. However, she is confident that the problems of the Georgian Dream are not in the political weight of its leaders, but in the general system of governance.

In fact, the result of the recent presidential elections, in which the party was unable to push its candidate forward in the first round of election clearly demonstrated the existence of systemic problems in the party. As a result, Salome Zurabishvili won with a small margin in the second round, with a turnout of only 46.74% of voters. Opponents of the Georgian Dream accused her of using administrative and financial resources.

Vasily Papava, Director of the Institute for the Middle East and Caucasus Studies (Georgia), believes that the ruling party has reached the maximum peak of recognition in the previous parliamentary elections.

"The last presidential elections in Georgia in October 2018 clearly showed the precariousness of the ruling party, whose representatives were confident of the triumphant victory of the supported candidate, Salome Zurabishvili. However, in the first round, the gap in votes between the two candidates (Zurabishvili and Vashadze) was minimal - only 1%. Undoubtedly, all the "little sins" will be recalled during the next parliamentary elections in 2020," V. Papava said.

In any case, according to Ivanishvili, the party needs to be updated. And the new members must be chosen according to the evolutionary principle. But it is difficult to guess how the things will follow in reality.

Alternative dream

Meanwhile, Eka Beselia, who has left the party, is threatening to become a new political force in the Georgian political life. She has already announced the creation of as many as two new factions in the parliament, together with the deputies who left the Georgian Dream. Considering that there can be at least six deputies in the parliamentary faction, in the near future we should expect new perturbations.

"Currently we hold consultations with those who supported the initiative. I believe it is just a matter of time when these people take a step towards leaving the majority," Beselia said.

However, the attempt to reshape the parliament reduces some privileges of the parliamentary minority. That is why the factions European Georgia and United National Movement began talks on unification. Nino Burjanadze, one of the most charismatic politicians of Georgia, also participated in the talks. The party led by the Democratic Movement decided to join forces with other opposition members to put an end to the institution of majority elections once and for all. Although under the new Constitution the parliament of Georgia will be elected on a proportional basis, this novelty will be introduced only in the 2024 elections. Oppositionists also want to get rid of majoritarian system of election in 2020. If the initiative group can submit more than 200 thousand signatures of citizens to the parliament in support of changes in the electoral system, legislative amendments will be initiated. However, the collection of signatures will be conducted by the representatives of 20 political parties. It seems that new stars appear on the political horizon of Georgia, and the Law and Justice Party, which held the founding congress on March 10, may become one of them. The party leader, Tako Charkviani, is quite radical in his statements and demands Bidzina Ivanishvili’s complete withdrawal from politics. He also advocates "for solving the vital problems of Georgia."

Political analyst Vasily Papava notes that it is even more difficult to know the goals of politicians in the opposition camp, which ultimately complicates the choice of the voters.

"The share of swing voters before the presidential election is more than 50%. The winner will be a candidate who can win the confidence of this share. However, the majority of citizens are not yet ready to vote for ideas, not for specific individuals. It is expected that the political life in Georgia on the eve of parliamentary elections will be dramatic and full of surprises. Particularly for the authorities, who have too little time to implement structural reforms both within the party and the bureaucracy, as well as the implementation of socio-economic programs," Papava stated.