MORE HUMOUR, LESS POLITICS

As predicted by numerous opinion polls, showman Vladimir Zelensky (almost 30% of the votes) and the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko (about 16%) passed to the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko, who became the third runner-up (about 13%) of the elections, was clearly aghast by the outcome, as she stated earlier  at the briefing that she was one of the candidates to take part in the second round, and not Poroshenko. It is therefore possible that she will challenge the results in the court. The rest of candidates took the following places: head of the Opposition Bloc, Yuri Boyko (more than 11%) – 4^th, leader of the Civil Position Party, Anatoly Gritsenko (more than 7%) – 5^th. In total, 39 candidates participated in the elections with a voter turnout of 63.52% and no major violations observed. The second round of elections will be held on April 21.

These were the second presidential elections in Ukraine after Euromaidan. We can say that they were marked by a clear decrease in the Russian rhetoric, as the election campaign was no longer based on tough statements either for or against Moscow, and rather low interest from the West possibly due to issues of the more important nature, such as the nerve-wracking Brexit. It has been noticed that the rejection of traditional elites, which has become the leitmotif of the entire election campaign, has been increasingly popular among the local population. However, the hit of the Ukrainian presidential election in 2019 is, of course, the emergence of a non-systemic and unusual candidate, Vladimir Zelensky. At least until the first round, he did not seek to contact journalists, and instead of pre-election rallies, he actually held stand-ups and shows.

Zelensky called the results of elections "the first step towards a big victory". According to him, he initially did not care with which of the acting politicians he would continue to fight: "We have nothing to talk about with the old government." In general, majority of people agree that Zelensky was the winner of the first round because Ukraine is tired of hard and serious things such as revolutions, wars, and social unrest. So, the TV producer seems to have found the right formula, speaking with the motto "more humour and less politics." Zelensky's election campaign is based on the character of Vasily Goloborodko from the popular television series "Servant of the People", where the teacher becomes president, and if the actor wins, this will be a tangible refutation of serious electoral theories from political science textbooks. Zelensky admits that he is inspired by the presidents of Brazil and France, Jair Bolsonaro and Emmanuel Macron, but he is often compared in the West with Donald Trump, as they both are successful businessmen, they had their own television shows and their promises could be called Populism v2.0, although the host of the White House is not so groundless in his statements as his opponents are trying to present him.

Obviously, Zelensky’s presidential program is indeed extremely vague: he calls for the introduction of general referendums, supports tax amnesty, reforms in health care and, most importantly, depriving officials of their immunity. Although Zelensky is almost a step away from the presidential office, only few still see him as a real politician, and not as an actor playing the role. It is believed that in case of his victory, Moscow and Kiev will have a chance to resume dialogue. But according to Zelensky's all the previous statements, it is difficult to understand which line he will choose in the matter of complex relations with Moscow. Petro Poroshenko continues to blame his main rival in connection with the disgraced oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. The fact that Kolomoisky supports Zelensky (and at the same time Tymoshenko) was not a secret from the very beginning. It was Kolomoisky’s TV channel 1+1 that has made the "servant of the people" Goloborodko popular. As for Kolomoisky himself, the most important thing you need to know about this businessman is that he is a personal, political and economic opponent of Petro Poroshenko, who at one time fired him from the post of the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and nationalised his bank.

Petro Poroshenko called the first round an unprecedented and pressing test for the Europeanness of Ukraine. According to Poroshenko, the voting was free and in full compliance with OSCE standards. It seems that the incumbent president was quite happy with the results - at least he expressed confidence that they were a big step to victory. Poroshenko also thanked his supporters for helping him "to thwart the plan of Moscow", because "Russians definitely did not want to see him in the second round." Nevertheless, he continues to emphasise his experience in politics, noting, for example, that the President of Ukraine will have to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, and not with Maxim Galkin (hinting at Zelensky’s acting past). Poroshenko also emphasises that he brought the Ukrainian army to a new level to protect against Russian aggression and confidently leads Ukraine to the EU and NATO. Now the main thing for Poroshenko is to get the voices of young people. That is what he told them: "I understood the motives of your protest. I heard you. Please, hear me too. Everything that we have been doing for five years is for future generations." In addition, according to Ukrainian experts, Poroshenko skilfully uses administrative resources, he has the support of many governors and mayors, as well as the law enforcement and military. According to the spokesman for the electoral headquarters of Poroshenko, Oleg Medvedev, "there are voters who voted for fun and not for fun. The 'game' is over for those who voted for fun. Now it is time to fight for those who were at poll stations not for fun. I think that in this fight Poroshenko has better chances than Zelensky," Medvedev said.

What about Tymoshenko? Expert believe that it was her political past that played against her. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko still has a chance to prove herself during the elections to the Verkhovna Rada on October 27. Some believe that Tymoshenko can join forces with Zelensky and become sort of his mentor, although the showman himself categorically denies this. But now a lot really depends on who the candidates in the third and fourth places will support.

The most important thing awaits Ukraine after the second round of elections. If Poroshenko wins, he will have to do a lot to raise his rating and increase public confidence in the government. Zelensky will have, of course, more difficult problems. Now he can defiantly avoid politics, but after becoming a president, he will no longer have such a choice. He will have to negotiate with international creditors of Ukraine, which cannot be sent to hell, as Goloborodko does on TV, as well as the political elite and oligarchs. Zelensky’s success will largely depend on his team, although he is going to step into a dangerous zone anyway: given the lack of any political experience compared to his too strong, influential and sophisticated environment, the question is how much of Zelensky remains in the office before the presidential rule turns into some kind of a collective rule.

Either way, the next president of Ukraine will have to solve many difficult, sometimes too controversial issues. Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe. In such a situation, it is very important to be able to consolidate the power and solve internal differences to deal with the most pressing economic issues in the country.