BREAKDOWN OF TRADITIONAL EUROPEAN ORDER

The May 23-26 elections to the European Parliament (EP) shaped a completely new balance of power in the EU. The two leading factions, the European People’s Party (conservatives and Christian democrats) and the Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, have lost their traditional ruling majority (only about 43% of the votes). Although there was not a major change in the EP, the centre-right and centre-left will not control the parliament for the first time in 40 years, while the liberals, nationalists, Eurosceptics, populists and greens have significantly improved their positions. Remarkably, the elections were based on party lists, however, it is not the parties that rule in the parliament but factions, which are founded based on ideological principls.

The outcome of European elections is a result of a number of factors. On the one hand, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of supporters of populists and nationalists. On the other hand, traditional hard-core supporters of the united Europe become increasingly unhappy with traditional parties, which led to an outflow of votes to the liberals and the greens. For example, in Germany the eco-parties have demonstrated good (for Germans) performance and the extreme right-wing populists from Alternative for Germany became the fourth (improved their position from 7.1 in 2014 to 10.8% in this vote), while the Social Democrats showed weak performance and the largest party of Germany, CDU, also lost positions. Something similar happened in France, where the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen won with a slight margin, and Macron's LREM was the second.

At the same time, the Brexit party of Nigel Farage, the former head of the British Independence Party, took the leading positions in the UK. In Italy, the League led by the Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has secured more than 30% of votes. In other words, the outcome of elections was extremely encouraging for populists. Salvini, for example, said that a “new European Renaissance” is coming. “This is a sign that Europe is changing. That Europe is tired of being the slave of elites, corporations and influential forces. Today’s vote tells us that the European rules are changing...”, Italian Deputy Prime Minister said. He is also the head of the European Alliance of Peoples and Nations (EAPN), which includes a number of European nationalist parties. His optimism, of course, is not ungrounded but it seems too populist, since the EAPN is still below the bar set.

Furthermore, if liberals can team up within the same faction, the non-systemic parties, on the contrary, are too heterogeneous and sometimes look directly in opposite directions in their views. So, if Salvini stands for the distribution of migrants arriving in the Mediterranean Sea to Italy among all EU countries, then nationalists from Central and Eastern Europe strongly oppose such a decision. Apparently, British Euro-sceptics will not stay in the European Parliament for long, since the UK should have left the EU on March 29, 2019. The process has stalled, because the local parliament did not approve the Brexit bill agreed with Brussels and now the divorce of London and Brussels has been postponed to October 31.

Nevertheless, representatives of European political mainstream believe that nothing terrible has happened, even though their positions have become more unsteady and the bell rang, which they have to listen to. Most likely, centre-right and centre-left will have to cooperate as part of a coalition with liberals in order to form a stable majority. We hope that they have enough political will to do so. The EU leaders will have to agree on the candidacy of the new head of the European Commission and submit it for approval by the parliament. The main candidate for this post is the head of the centre-right European People's Party, Bavarian politician Manfred Weber, who had already stated that his party was not going to work with Eurosceptics and populists.

Anyway, the new motley composition of the parliament will require the ability to negotiate, especially on such sensitive issues as budget regulation, migration policy, growing inequality and income stagnation. In addition, it is high time for Europeans to finally work out a coherent strategy for relations with key partners - the United States, Russia, and China. In this sense, the interview of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper, which has been in power for 14 years just before the elections to the European Parliament, is very significant in this sense. “They [China, Russia and the United States] are forcing us to find common positions again and again,” said the German chancellor, at the same time urging Europe to group, accumulate “political power commensurate with economic opportunities” to act independently of the big powers. Merkel cited the example of how Europe, following US President Donald Trump, refused to violate the agreement on the limitation of Iran’s nuclear program. The German Chancellor is convinced that the EU should forget about internal conflicts and develop an effective foreign policy.

Such statements from the most deserved and authoritative European politician show the desperate attempts of European elites to regain the most solid foundation they once had. That is why the results of the Eurobarometer survey conducted in the middle of spring 2019 in 14 EU countries look discouraging. According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), two-thirds of voters still firmly support the membership of their countries in the EU, which is the highest figure since 1983. They value their European identity, the advantages of a single market and currency, and, of course, they, like Mrs. Merkel, understand that they cannot be global players alone. But, on the other hand, the majority of voters are also convinced that the EU will disintegrate in the next 10-20 years, and 28% (most of them are young people) do not even rule out the possibility of war between EU member states. Moreover, this opinion prevails among supporters of the extreme right, and among supporters of the main parties. Where do such paradoxical moods come from and what can be done to eliminate them?

According to observers, the whole thing is the absence of a common ideological component. The values that the united Europe was built upon, including the defense of democracy, rule of law and human rights, cooperation, harmony, tolerance, no longer work to such an extent that EU citizens, in fact, do not care who rules them — Social or Christian Democrats. In the past, if the main values ​​remained unshakable, protected and in demand, and the main disputes were focused on taxes, social benefits, abortions, size of medical insurance, etc. not causing fundamental changes (default options), it really did not matter who was the ruling party. Approximately the same power schemes were built and for a long time uninterruptedly worked in most of the national states of the EU and - most clearly and revealingly - in the USA. But more and more recently, this formula gives the wrong results. The electorate became too diverse (including at the expense of the same migrants), so too many goals and hopes in this chorus of voices remain unheard, which is inevitably expressed in protest. Therefore, voters support those politicians who go against the mainstream and want to press the parties that have dominated for decades. They, as before, want to consider that they represent the majority, but reality dictates its own rules.

In fact, the traditional party system is breaking down in the heart of the “old” Europe. In Germany, the main parties lost the votes, while the extreme right and populists were in huge demand in France and Italy. Elections in the UK were also remarkable not because they revealed the names of those who will represent the country in the European Parliament for a few months before Brexit, but because the ruling conservatives and their opponents, Labourites, got a big F from voters. Moreover, the conservatives became the fifth running behind the pro-European Green Party. So why do the Conservatives and Labourites lead the race in the local elections, but Nigel Farage's Brexit party takes the lead in Europe? In short, it is all about the peculiarities of the local electoral system (the so-called "Westminster", also known as the First Past the Post), which simply cuts off non-systemic candidates just at the start of election campaign. As a result, millions of voters are virtually deprived of the opportunity to elect their favourites to the parliament.

Apparently, the key lesson learnt from the 2019 European elections is not who won — supporters or opponents of integration between the EU states. It is clear that supporters have much more votes, weight and strength, which is why the European Union is still alive. The fact is that the time when only two or three parties ruled in the Western political domain gradually becomes history. In this context, the current composition of the EP is much more dynamic and democratic than it has ever been in its history. By the way, the turnout in the elections-2019 was a record one and exceeded 50%, which means only one thing - European society demands changes. Can this be considered a victory for the European project? In the near future – undoubtedly yes but in the long-term perspective, everything will depend on what (and how soon) the leaders will form a new reality. After all, Britain has withdrawn, Merkel is almost gone, Macron has never been 'a European reality' per se, while new charismatic politicians who would help inspire voters and reform the EU are still to come.